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Emissions

Next Release

  • A/R removal spatial pattern updated to only include additional forest growth in a high mitigation scenario (subtracting from managed secondary forest in the initial period). Last version: all NON-URBAN land area was used.
  • Deforestation spatial pattern updated to match initial distribution of managed secondary forest. Last version: all NON-URBAN land area was used.
  • Enhanced Weathering spatial pattern now uses late-century agricultural land. Last version: all NON-URBAN land area was used.

2024-10-11

REMIND-MAgPIE

  • MAgPIE
    • Bugfix in LUC emissions reducing spikes from soil organic matter loss
  • REMIND
    • Change transport policy assumptions in sensitivity runs, assuming a more gradual change between very low (cp3000) and very high (cp0400) ambition scenarios. Scenarios with original assumptions are still being reported for comparison (and as fall-back option) and are marked with the suffix -T_Mix4, which represents the transport policy mix that is shared by all these scenarios.

2024-08-19

  • gridded dataset for 2015-2100 in 10-year steps for 8 scenarios:

    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-PkBudg500-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-PkBudg1150-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-PkBudg500-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-PkBudg1150-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-EocBudg500-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-EocBudg1150-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-EocBudg500-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-08-19-EocBudg1150-OAE_on

  • harmonized data for 2020-2100 in 5-year steps until 2060 and 10-year steps until 2100 for 30 scenarios (8 direct scenarios above and 22 additional sensitivity runs):

    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-Baseline
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-NPi
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0400-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0450-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0500-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0600-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0750-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp1000-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp1300-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp1700-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp2300-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp3000-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0400-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0450-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0500-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0600-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp0750-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp1000-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp1300-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp1700-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp2300-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-08-19-EocBudg_cp3000-OAE_on

Gridding

  • Grids all cdr sectors in CO2_em_anthro with simple patterns:

    • CDR Afforestation,
    • CDR BECCS,
    • CDR DACCS,
    • CDR EW (no data in Tier 1 scenarios),
    • CDR Industry,
    • CDR OAE Uptake Ocean

  • Adds two new sectors to the CO2_em_anthro variable (for anthropogenic CO2 emissions):

    • The sector Deforestation and LUC are the positive emissions from LUC and deforestation, as counter-part to the separate CDR Afforestation sector.
    • The sector OAE Calcination Emissions represents the positive emissions from OAE (coming from burning synfuels originating from limestone calcination)

    After both changes, the sector list for CO2_em_anthro becomes:

    1. Agriculture
    2. Energy
    3. Industrial
    4. Transportation
    5. Residential, Commercial, Other
    6. Solvents Production and Application
    7. Waste
    8. International Shipping
    9. Deforestation and other LUC
    10. OAE Calcination Emissions
    11. CDR Afforestation
    12. CDR BECCS
    13. CDR DACCS
    14. CDR EW
    15. CDR Industry
    16. CDR OAE Uptake Ocean

    For all other emissions species only the sectors 1-8 apply.

  • Adds the total alkalinity additions to the ocean for OAE as a new variable TA_em_anthro with units of kmol TA s-1 m-2 into separate gridded files named like TA-em-anthro_input4MIPs_emissions_RESCUE....nc

  • Fixes datatype issues that were breaking cdo

REMIND-MAgPIE

  • MAgPIE
    • Update model version from v4.7.1 to v4.8.0
    • Use of raw land-use change emissions to inform the CO2 budget (see below).
  • REMIND
    • In non-overshoot 1.5° scenarios (PkBudg500-OAE_off, PkBudg500-OAE_off) allow the carbon price to slowly decrease after the peak again. This was necessary to attain model convergence, while ensuring that cumulative emissions in the year of emissions peaking (typically 2045) and in 2100 are equal. This has the consequence that - after a short period of net negative CO2 emissions after the peak - CO2 emissions will rise again slowly in the second half of the century.
  • Update CEDS reporting
    • Change in land-use change (LUC) emissions representation. In previous versions LUC CO2 emissions (positive gross emissions CEDS+|9+ Sectors|Emissions|CO2|Deforestation and other LUC and negative afforestation CDR CEDS+|9+ Sectors|Emissions|CO2|CDR Afforestation) were based on a smoothed MAgPIE output variable, in which spikes in single time steps were dampend via a low-pass filter function. This smoothing, however, led to inconsistencies in the CO2 budget between scenarios with and without overshoot. Therefore, in this release version the raw LUC emissions are used instead.
    • Rename CEDS+|9+ Sectors|Emissions|CO2|Aggregate - Agriculture and LUC to CEDS+|9+ Sectors|Emissions|CO2|Deforestation and other LUC. Please note that for other gases the original sector Aggregate - Agriculture and LUC was kept, as it comprises the sub-sectors Agriculture, Agricultural Waste Burning, Forest Burning and Grassland Burning, which are not resolved for CO2.
    • Remove positive OAE emissions (coming from burning synfuels originating from limestone calcination) from the end-use sectors. Instead the variable CEDS+|9+ Sectors|Emissions|CO2|OAE Calcination Emissions is now required to be used by all ESMs to capture these positive emissions from the OAE technology.
    • Add total alkalinity additions to the ocean as variable (RESCUE|OAE|Alkalinity Addition in Tmol TA/yr).

2024-04-25

  • gridded dataset for 2015-2100 in 10-year for 1 scenario:
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2023-12-13-PkBudg500-OAE_on
  • harmonized data for 2020-2100 in 5-year steps until 2060 and 10-year steps until 2100 for 29 scenarios:
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-Baseline
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0400-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0450-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0500-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0600-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0750-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp1000-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp1300-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp1700-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp2300-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp3000-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0400-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0450-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0500-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0600-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp0750-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp1000-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp1300-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp1700-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp2300-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Sensitivity-2024-04-25-EocBudg_cp3000-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-PkBudg500-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-PkBudg1150-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-PkBudg500-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-PkBudg1150-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-EocBudg500-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-EocBudg1150-OAE_off
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-EocBudg500-OAE_on
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2024-04-25-EocBudg1150-OAE_on

Gridding

  • Add new gridded cdr variables to CO2_em_anthro variable:
    • CDR Afforestation (with proposed spatial pattern),
    • CDR BECCS (with proposed spatial pattern),
    • CDR DACCS,
    • CDR EW (no data in Tier 1 scenarios),
    • CDR Industry,
    • CDR OAE (with proposed spatial pattern)
  • Update definition of harmonized variables:
    • CO2::Aggregate - Agriculture and LUC contains only positive LUC emissions and is harmonized to GCB 2023 (global)
    • CO2::CDR Afforestation is harmonized to the negative component of GCB 2023 (forest regrowth at global level)
  • Fix datatype of _FillValue attribute to float32

REMIND-MAgPIE

  • MAgPIE
    • Update model version from v4.7.0 to v4.7.1
    • Switch to forestryExo realization to keep timber area constant
  • REMIND
    • Switch from a regional "keep net-zero CO2 emissions after peak"-target to a global one. This way we allow individual regions to still generate net negative emissions in order to compensate for emissions in other regions, as long as global net emissions do not become negative.
    • Activate global 5 Gt CO2/yr OAE bound with GDP-based regional shares.
  • Update CEDS reporting
    • Change definition of CDR from re- and afforestation. Before we assumed CDR from re- and afforestation is simply the amount of regional net negative LUC emissions. Now we explicitly use the natural regrowth in Secondary Forest, Other Land and Timber Plantations, as well as in forests that were intentionally planted to generate negative emissions, that is, via price-incentives CO2-price AR, or via specific policy targets NPI_NDC AR. This is based on the UNFCCC convention that all LUC emissions that can be attributed to “human activity” is defined as CDR.

2024-03-21

  • gridded dataset for 2015-2100 in 10-year for 1 scenario:
    • RESCUE-Tier1-Direct-2023-12-13-PkBudg500-OAE_on

Gridding

  • The separate CO2_em_removal variables were integrated as new sectors into the CO2_em_anthro variable for all types of negative emissions: Afforestation, BECCS, DACCS, EW, Industry and OAE.
  • The gridded scenario data starts in 2015 (where 2015-2020 derives from a custom CEDS2017 extension)
  • Consistent data form:
    • Dimensions are ordered time, level or sector, lat, lon
    • Sector coordinates have guaranteed orders:
      • {gas}_em_anthro variables have: Agriculture, Energy, Industrial,Transportation, Residential, Commercial, Other, Solvents Production and Application, Waste, International Shipping
      • CO2_em_anthro variables have the same sectors, but in addition the negative emissions sectors: CDR Afforestation, CDR BECCS, CDR DACCS, CDR EW, CDR Industry, CDR OAE
      • {gas}_em_openburning has: Agricultural Waste Burning, Forest Burning, Grassland Burning, Peat Burning
    • Data type is float32
    • Time dimension is monthly in the years 2015, 2020, 2030, ..., 2100.

WARNING: Since not all proxy discussions have concluded, Afforestation, BECCS, EW and OAE are only provided as nan values in this preliminary review round.

REMIND-MAgpIE

No updates.

2023-12-08

  • dataset for 1995-2100 in 10-year timesteps for 6 scenarios.

Gridding

  • Updated filenames and netcdf metadata following the structure in CMIP6
  • New shipping proxies by MariTeam
  • New CDR proxies for DACCS and Industrial CDR
  • Fixed harmonisation and downscaling for incomplete proxies
  • Fixed F-Gas split regression
  • Fixed uniform grid (720x360)

REMIND-MAgpIE

  • Update MAgPIE model version number from v4.6.7 to v4.7.0
  • Activate timber module in MAgPIE to represent managed forests

2023-10-11

Gridding

REMIND-MAgpIE

  • Update REMIND model version
    • Update REMIND version number from v3.1.0 to v3.2.0; in particular improving near term realism within REMIND (effectively reduces remaining carbon budget)
    • Updated assumption on OAE realization, reducing emissions from limestone calcination
    • Remove overshoot scenarios with OAE, since the new assumptions lead to model instabilities
    • Deactivate climate change impacts within MAgPIE
  • Update CEDS emissions reporting
    • Fix/Improve emissions reporting to match CEDS historic emissions
    • Reallocate OAE calcination emissions to end-use sectors

Land Use

Maintained in separate repository by PIK's MAgPIE team, see here.