Cost_Analysis_2012.m

%% Cost Analysis from Raymer CH 18 pg 501-517
% Updated with Respect to RAYMER 5th EDITION $ 2012 to 2025 $
% Using Variable Notation from Raymer
% Flyaway cost is approximately 49 million 2025 dollars-comparable to Gulfstream
% asking price between 32 and 52 million in 2017. -Flyaway cost confirmed.
%% Inflation Rate 1986-2025 US Bureau of Statistics and Calculator
% 1986-2025
%Inf = 2.65; % inflation rate calcuated from avg 2.2 rate from 2017-2025
Inf = 1.263; % inflation between 2012 and 2025
%% Inital Parameters
% Must Run Iter Weights before 
% (*) symbol indicates things that need to be changed
WTO = Wt.WTO; % lbf
W_E = Wt.WE; % lbf
V = Wt.fuel.V_max_cr * 0.592484; % maximum velocity in knots
Q = 300; % Production Quantity based on paper "Case for Small SS AC"
FTA = 2; % Number of flight test aircraft (typically 2-6)
N_e = 3; % Number of Engines
C_e = 1000000; % engine cost* NEEDS UPDATE and move down later
N_Eng = Q*N_e; % total production quantity times number of engines per aircraft
M_max = 2.3; % engine maximum mach number
T_max = 4384; % engine max thrust (lbf)* Check for sea level
T_4 = 2000; % turbine inlet temperature (Rankine)
C_avionics = 2000*Wt.WTO; % avionics cost

% Hourly Rates in 1986 constant dollars
R_E = 115; % engineering
R_T = 118; % tooling
R_Q = 108; % quality control
R_M = 98; % manufacturing
%% Modified DAPCA IV Cost Model pg 508-517
%% RDTE and Production Costs
% Cost in constant 1986 dollars not including inflation

% Fudge Factors for different materials for hour calculations
% (aluminum: 1.0, graphite-epoxy = 1.5-2.0, fiberglass 1.1-1.2, steel
% 1.5-2.0, titanium 1.7-2.2)

FF = 1; % currently for aluminum aircraft

% Engineering Hours 
H_E = FF*(4.86*Wt.WE^0.777*V^0.894*Q^0.163);

% Tooling Hours Eq 18.2
H_T = FF*(5.99*Wt.WE^0.777*V^0.696*Q^0.263);

% Mfg (manufacturing) Hours Eq 18.3
H_M = FF*(7.37*Wt.WE^0.82*V^0.484*Q^0.641);

% QC (quality control) Hours Eq 18.4
H_Q = 0.133*H_M; % (mfg hours)for other than cargo plane

% Development support costs Eq 18.5
C_Dev = 91.3*Wt.WE^0.630*V^1.3;

% Flight Test Cost Eq 18.6
C_F = 2498*Wt.WE^0.325*V^0.822*FTA^1.21;

% Mfg Materials Cost Eq 18.7
C_Mat = 22.1*Wt.WE^0.921*V^0.621*Q^0.799;

% Eng Production Cost Eq 18.8
C_Eng = 1.15*(3112*(0.043*T_max+ 243.25*M_max + 0.969*T_4 - 2228));

% RDT&E (research development test evaluation) + flyaway COST Eq 18.9 
RDTE = Inf*((H_E*R_E + H_T*R_T + H_Q*R_Q + H_M*R_M + C_Dev + C_F + C_Mat + ...
    C_Eng*N_Eng + C_avionics)/Q);

fprintf('The total aircraft RDTE and Flyaway cost per aircraft is $%0.0f in 2025  \n',RDTE)

Flyaway = Inf*(H_M*R_M+H_T*R_T + C_F + C_Mat +  C_Eng*N_Eng + C_avionics)/Q;
% Flyaway cost per aircraft
fprintf('The Flyaway cost per aircraft is $%0.0f in 2025  \n',Flyaway)
 %% Learning Curve
% H_1 = H_E + H_T + H_M + H_Q; % total number of labor hours to produce aircraft
% Q_range = linspace(1,500,500); % range of quantity production
% x = 0.678; % 80% learning curve
% H = H_1*(Q_range).^(x-1); % hour learning curve equation Fig 18.1
% figure()
% Qmin = 180; Qmax = 400; % Production Quantity range based on paper "Case for Small SS AC"
% plot(Q_range,H,'LineWidth',1) % plot curve
% hold on
% % Plotting maximum, minimum, and estimated production quantities
% plot(linspace(1,Qmin,100),H(Qmin)*ones(1,100),'r','LineWidth',0.5)
% plot(linspace(1,Qmax,100),H(Qmax)*ones(1,100),'c','LineWidth',1)
% plot(linspace(1,Q,100),H(Q)*ones(1,100),'g','LineWidth',1)
% plot(Qmin*ones(1,100),linspace(0,H(Qmin),100),'r','LineWidth',0.5)
% plot(Qmax*ones(1,100),linspace(0,H(Qmax),100),'c','LineWidth',0.5)
% plot(Q*ones(1,100),linspace(0,H(Q),100),'g','LineWidth',0.5)
% xlabel('Production Quantity (AC)')
% ylabel('Production Labor Hours per Aircraft (Hrs)')
% title('Aircraft Production Learning Curve')
% legend('Production Learning Curve','Minimum Production Estimate', 'Maximum Production Estimate',...
%     'Estimated Production Run')
% hold off
%% Production Cost vs Quantity Produced
Q_range = linspace(1,500,500); % range of quantity production
Qmin = 180; Qmax = 400; % Production Quantity range based on paper "Case for Small SS AC"
figure()
Flyaway_range = Inf*(H_M*R_M+H_T*R_T + C_F + C_Mat +  C_Eng*N_Eng + C_avionics)./Q_range;
plot(Q_range,Flyaway_range)
H = Flyaway_range; % new H for plotting
hold on
% Plotting maximum, minimum, and estimated production quantities
plot(linspace(1,Qmin,100),H(Qmin)*ones(1,100),'r','LineWidth',0.5)
plot(linspace(1,Qmax,100),H(Qmax)*ones(1,100),'c','LineWidth',1)
plot(linspace(1,Q,100),H(Q)*ones(1,100),'g','LineWidth',1)
plot(Qmin*ones(1,100),linspace(0,H(Qmin),100),'r','LineWidth',0.5)
plot(Qmax*ones(1,100),linspace(0,H(Qmax),100),'c','LineWidth',0.5)
plot(Q*ones(1,100),linspace(0,H(Q),100),'g','LineWidth',0.5)
xlabel('Production Quantity (AC)')
ylabel('Production Cost per Aircraft ($)')
title('Aircraft Production Learning Curve')
legend('Production Learning Curve','Minimum Production Estimate', 'Maximum Production Estimate',...
    'Estimated Production Run')
ylim([0,Flyaway_range(50)])
hold off
%% Operations and Maintenance Costs
% Operations and Maintenance costs include mainly fuel, crew salaries, and
% maintenance

% Must find block time (time to travel using flight pathways) using flight distance to calculate

% In order to obtain maintenance costs, flight hours per year are needed
% Table 18.1 pg 511
MMH_FH = 4.5; % Maintenance man hours per flight hour business jet (avg)
FH_YR = 500; % Flight hour per year per aircraft

% Calculating Mission Flight Time pg 511.
Range = 3000; % range of aircraft nmi based on suitable travel locations and distances
Dist_mis = 1.02*Range; % distance traveled with federal routes
FH = Dist_mis/V; % flight hours 

% Cycles per aircraft calculated dividing FH/yr over FH 
Cycle = FH_YR/FH; 
% Two man crew cost per aircraft per cycle Eq 18.10
C_crew = FH*(70.4*(V*WTO/10^5)^0.3 + 84);
% Two man crew cost per block hour per aircraft per year
C_crew_YR = C_crew*Cycle;

% Calculating aircraft cost one less engine
C_a =(H_M*R_M+H_T*R_T + C_F + C_Mat +  C_Eng*Q*(N_e-1) + C_avionics)/Q;
%fprintf('The aircraft cost minus one engine is %0.1f \n',C_a)

% material cost per flight hour Eq 18.12
MC_FH = 3.3*(C_a/10^6) +14.2 + (58*(C_e/10^6) - 26.1)*N_e;
%fprintf('The material cost per flight hour is %0.1f \n',MC_FH)

% material cost per cycle Eq 18.13
MC_cycle = 4.0*(C_a/10^6) + 9.3 + (7.5*(C_e/10^6) + 5.6)*N_e;
%fprintf('The material cost per cycle is %0.1f \n',MC_cycle)

% "cycles" are the number of flights per year
% The total materials cost is the cost per flight hour times the 
% flight hours per year, plus the cost per cycle times the cycles per year.

% Material Cost per aircraft per year
Material_Cost = MC_FH*FH_YR + MC_cycle*Cycle;

% Fuel
Fuel_Hr = Wt.fuel.sfc_cr*3600; % lbm fuel consumption per hour per lbf thrust
Fuel_price_gal = 4.59; % $/gallon local prices Airnav
rho_f = 7; % Saedray density of fuel lbm/gallon
Fuel_Cost_Yr = Fuel_price_gal/rho_f*Fuel_Hr*FH_YR*T_max;

% Maintenance and Operation Cost (Yearly per aircraft)

M_O = Material_Cost + C_crew_YR;
fprintf('The Operation and Maintenance Cost per year per aircraft is $%0.0f in 2025 \n',Inf*M_O)
%% Bar Graph of All Costs

figure()
Cost = Inf*[H_E*R_E, H_T*R_T, H_Q*R_Q, H_M*R_M,C_Dev,C_F,C_Eng*N_Eng,...
    C_avionics,C_Mat, Q*M_O,Q*Fuel_Cost_Yr]/Q;  % array of costs'
x = 1:length(Cost); % number of costs to show
barh(x,Cost) % bar graph
Labels = {'Engineering', 'Tooling', 'Quality Assurance',...
    'Manufacturing','Development', 'Flight Testing','Turbofan Engines',...
    'Avionics','Materials','Maintenance','Fuel'};

set(gca, 'YTick', 1:length(Cost), 'YTickLabel', Labels);
xlabel('Cost per Airplane (2025 $)')
xlim([0,30e6]);
for i1=1:numel(Cost)
    text(Cost(i1),x(i1),num2str(Cost(i1),'%0.1d'),...
               'HorizontalAlignment','left',...
               'VerticalAlignment','middle')
end
title('RDTE and Flyaway Cost Breakdown') 
%% Airplane Revenue
% Determine Cost per ticket
% Based on United Website, Tokyo to SF
Ticket_i = 3000; % intial ticket cost dollars (business class)
% assuming full plane of passengers every time
Revenue_Cycle = Ticket_i*n_p; % revenue due to 10 passengers per flight
Revenue_Yr = Revenue_Cycle*Cycle; % Annual revenue per aircraft
Profit = Inf*(Revenue_Yr - M_O - Fuel_Cost_Yr); % Revenue - Expenses = Profit 
fprintf('Annual Revenue per aircraft is $%0.0f in 2025 \n', Revenue_Yr) 
fprintf('Annual Profit Margin per aircraft is $%0.0f in 2025 \n', Profit)
%% Insurance and Deprecation
% Insurance
Insurance = 0.01*(C_crew_YR+ C_crew_YR); % 1% of operation cost

% Depreciation 10% for airframe
% Will do depreciation over 5 years
Flyaway = Inf*(H_M*R_M+H_T*R_T + C_F + C_Mat +  C_Eng*N_Eng + C_avionics)/Q;
% Depreciation Cost of airframe per year
Dep_AF = 0.9*(Inf*(H_M*R_M+H_T*R_T + C_F + C_Mat)/Q)/5;

% Depreciation Cost of engines per year
Dep_ENG = (Inf*(C_Eng*N_Eng)/Q)/5;