diff --git a/SIR2025-2027/writing/SIR2025_Economic_Impacts.tex b/SIR2025-2027/writing/SIR2025_Economic_Impacts.tex deleted file mode 100644 index 081435a..0000000 --- a/SIR2025-2027/writing/SIR2025_Economic_Impacts.tex +++ /dev/null @@ -1,421 +0,0 @@ -% Options for packages loaded elsewhere -\PassOptionsToPackage{unicode}{hyperref} -\PassOptionsToPackage{hyphens}{url} -\PassOptionsToPackage{dvipsnames,svgnames,x11names}{xcolor} -% -\documentclass[ - 12pt, -]{article} -\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb} -\usepackage{lmodern} -\usepackage{iftex} -\ifPDFTeX - \usepackage[T1]{fontenc} - \usepackage[utf8]{inputenc} - \usepackage{textcomp} % provide euro and other symbols -\else % if luatex or xetex - \usepackage{unicode-math} - \defaultfontfeatures{Scale=MatchLowercase} - \defaultfontfeatures[\rmfamily]{Ligatures=TeX,Scale=1} -\fi -% Use upquote if available, for straight quotes in verbatim environments -\IfFileExists{upquote.sty}{\usepackage{upquote}}{} -\IfFileExists{microtype.sty}{% use microtype if available - \usepackage[]{microtype} - \UseMicrotypeSet[protrusion]{basicmath} % disable protrusion for tt fonts -}{} -\makeatletter -\@ifundefined{KOMAClassName}{% if non-KOMA class - \IfFileExists{parskip.sty}{% - \usepackage{parskip} - }{% else - \setlength{\parindent}{0pt} - \setlength{\parskip}{6pt plus 2pt minus 1pt}} -}{% if KOMA class - \KOMAoptions{parskip=half}} -\makeatother -\usepackage{xcolor} -\usepackage[margin=1in]{geometry} -\usepackage{graphicx} -\makeatletter -\def\maxwidth{\ifdim\Gin@nat@width>\linewidth\linewidth\else\Gin@nat@width\fi} -\def\maxheight{\ifdim\Gin@nat@height>\textheight\textheight\else\Gin@nat@height\fi} -\makeatother -% Scale images if necessary, so that they will not overflow the page -% margins by default, and it is still possible to overwrite the defaults -% using explicit options in \includegraphics[width, height, ...]{} -\setkeys{Gin}{width=\maxwidth,height=\maxheight,keepaspectratio} -% Set default figure placement to htbp -\makeatletter -\def\fps@figure{htbp} -\makeatother -\setlength{\emergencystretch}{3em} % prevent overfull lines -\providecommand{\tightlist}{% - \setlength{\itemsep}{0pt}\setlength{\parskip}{0pt}} -\setcounter{secnumdepth}{5} -\usepackage{setspace}\doublespacing -\usepackage{booktabs} -\usepackage{longtable} -\usepackage{array} -\usepackage{multirow} -\usepackage{wrapfig} -\usepackage{float} -\usepackage{colortbl} -\usepackage{pdflscape} -\usepackage{tabu} -\usepackage{threeparttable} -\usepackage{threeparttablex} -\usepackage[normalem]{ulem} -\usepackage{makecell} -\usepackage{xcolor} -\ifLuaTeX - \usepackage{selnolig} % disable illegal ligatures -\fi -\IfFileExists{bookmark.sty}{\usepackage{bookmark}}{\usepackage{hyperref}} -\IfFileExists{xurl.sty}{\usepackage{xurl}}{} % add URL line breaks if available -\urlstyle{same} % disable monospaced font for URLs -\hypersetup{ - pdftitle={SIR 2025-2027 Specifications Economic Section}, - pdfauthor={Min-Yang Lee}, - colorlinks=true, - linkcolor={Maroon}, - filecolor={Maroon}, - citecolor={Blue}, - urlcolor={blue}, - pdfcreator={LaTeX via pandoc}} - -\title{SIR 2025-2027 Specifications Economic Section} -\author{Min-Yang Lee} -\date{August 13, 2024} - -\begin{document} -\maketitle - -\hypertarget{summary-and-housekeeping}{% -\section{Summary and Housekeeping}\label{summary-and-housekeeping}} - -The 2025-2027 herring specification are needed to set the ABCs, ACLs, -and other fishery specifications. This is an application of the ABC -control rule that was put in place with Amendment 8. The previous specs -were set in Framework 8 and contain specifications through 2023. - -A Supplemental Information Report (SIR) is being prepared. \emph{If} -there are no implementing regulations, then only a Regulatory -Flexibility Act Analysis is required. In this action, there is an -implementing regulation (New Brunswick Weir), therefore an EO 12866 -section is required. - -This analysis was written in RMarkdown. It can be found at -\url{https://github.com/NEFSC/READ-SSB-Lee-herring-analyses} - -\setcounter{section}{8} -\setcounter{subsection}{11} - -\setcounter{figure}{19} -\setcounter{table}{10} - -\hypertarget{regulatory-impact-analysis-e.o.-12866}{% -\subsection{Regulatory Impact Analysis (E.O. -12866)}\label{regulatory-impact-analysis-e.o.-12866}} - -The purpose of Executive Order 12866 (E.O. 12866, 58 FR 51735, October -4, 1993) is to enhance planning and coordination with respect to new and -existing regulations. This E.O. requires the Office of Management and -Budget (OMB) to review regulatory programs that are considered to be -``significant.'' E.O. 12866 requires a review of proposed regulations to -determine whether or not the expected effects would be significant, -where a significant action is any regulatory action that may: - -\begin{itemize} -\tightlist -\item - Have an annual effect on the economy of \$100 million or more, or - adversely affect in a material way the economy, a sector of the - economy, productivity, jobs, the environment, public health or safety, - or State, local, or tribal governments or communities; -\item - Create a serious inconsistency or otherwise interfere with an action - taken or planned by another agency; -\item - Materially alter the budgetary impact of entitlements, grants, user - fees, or loan programs or the rights and obligations of recipients - thereof; or -\item - Raise novel legal or policy issues arising out of legal mandates, the - President's priorities, or the principles set for the Executive Order. -\end{itemize} - -In deciding whether and how to regulate, agencies should assess all -costs and benefits of available regulatory alternatives. Costs and -benefits shall be understood to include both quantifiable measures (to -the fullest extent that these can be usefully estimated) and qualitative -measures of costs and benefits that are difficult to quantify, but -nevertheless essential to consider. - -The proposed action will set Annual Catch Limits and other fishery -specification for 2025-2027. In aggregate these changes will allow the -fishing industry to catch, land, and sell less herring. Lower revenues -are expected. Decreases in producer surplus accrue to the herring -fishing industry. Decreases in consumer surplus accrue to the users of -herring, these include the lobster industry. We do not project changes -in consumer or producer surplus. Changes in gross revenues from herring -are used as a proxy for these measures. - -The rebuilding plan sets lower ACLS in order to rebuild the depleted -stock of herring to a biomass that can sustaim Maximum Sustainable -Yield. Furthermore, the stock of herring itself has value: it produces -future generations of fish and higher stock levels make harvesting less -costly. A bioeconomic model with that includes a stock-recruitment -relationship could be used to quantify the value of the changes in stock -levels. We do not undertake this. - -\hypertarget{management-goals-and-objectives}{% -\subsubsection{Management Goals and -Objectives}\label{management-goals-and-objectives}} - -\textcolor{red}{By reference} - -\hypertarget{description-of-the-fishery-and-other-affected-entitites}{% -\subsubsection{Description of the Fishery and other affected -entitites}\label{description-of-the-fishery-and-other-affected-entitites}} - -See Sections 3 and 4 for a description of the fishery - -\hypertarget{statement-of-the-problem}{% -\subsubsection{Statement of the -Problem}\label{statement-of-the-problem}} - -The New England Fishery Management Council adopted an ABC control rule -in Herring Amendment 8. The control rule prescribes the fishing -mortality rate (F) as a function of Spawning Stock Biomass. Framework 8 -implemented the control rule for the 2021-2023 fishing years. - -\hypertarget{economic-impacts-relative-to-the-baseline}{% -\subsubsection{Economic impacts relative to the -baseline}\label{economic-impacts-relative-to-the-baseline}} - -The major change that would affect firms is a change in the Annual Catch -Limit from 23,961mt in 2025 to 2,710 mt, 6,854 mt, and 11,404mt in -2025-2027 respectively. Recent catches have been close to the ACLs, so -we assume that catch is equal to the ACLs in the future. - -\hypertarget{prices-and-revenues}{% -\paragraph{Prices and Revenues}\label{prices-and-revenues}} - -Framework 9 contained a simple econometric model that estimated a -relationship between (real 2019) prices and landings. - -We have updated that model to include additional years of data and -normalize to Real 2023 prices. Wepply the results of that model of -prices to project future prices. Prices are in dollars per metric ton -and landings are expressed in thousands of metric tons. The first column -of Table \ref{regression_results} contains the model of prices that are -used to predict future prices\footnote{A least-squares regression will - be produce biased estimates if prices and quantities are - simultaneously determined. An Instrumental Variables estimator, where - previous year's landings is used as an instrument for landings, can - overcome this problem. A pair of log-transformed models are also - estimated. The first column is the preferred specification and used - for predictions. The other three columns are presented as robustness - checks. The log-landings coefficient from the IV model is an - elasticity and implies that an increase in landings of 1\% will reduce - prices by 0.44\%.}. Based on the econometric model of prices, -predicted prices and revenues are calculated according to: - -\begin{align} -\mbox{Predicted Price} &= 815 - 5.893*\mbox{landings}\label{eq:predicted_price}\\ -\mbox{Predicted Revenue} &= (815 - 5.893*\mbox{landings}) *\mbox{landings}\label{eq:predicted_landings} -\end{align} - -The landings coefficient implies that, on average, an increase in -landings of 1,000 mt will reduce prices by \$5.89 per metric ton. The -data 2017 to 2020 was used to estimate this model. - -\begin{table}[htbp] - \begin{center} - \input{../tables/Yregression_results2023.tex} - \caption{Econometric model of herring prices used to project prices and revenues under baseline and propsoed conditions. \label{regression_results}} - \end{center} -\end{table} - -\hypertarget{baseline-description}{% -\subsubsection{Baseline Description}\label{baseline-description}} - -The previous specifications included an ACL for 2025 was that is set at -23,961mt. This is one reasonable baseline against which to evaluate the -economic effects of the proposed action. Under the baseline, we project -prices of \textbf{\$674/metric ton} and gross revenues derived from -herring of \textbf{\$16.1M}. - -\begin{table} - -\caption{\label{tab:prices_revenues}Projected Landings (mt), Prices (Real 2023 USD/mt), Revenues (Real 2023 USD/mt) and Revenue change relative to the baseline for 2025-2027 Specifications.} -\centering -\begin{tabular}[t]{lrrrl} -\toprule -\textbf{Year} & \textbf{Landings} & \textbf{Price} & \textbf{Revenue} & \textbf{Revenue Change}\\ -\midrule -Baseline & 23,961 & \$674 & \$16,145,000 & NA\\ -2025 & 2,710 & \$799 & \$2,165,000 & -\$13,979,000\\ -2026 & 6,854 & \$775 & \$5,309,000 & -\$10,836,000\\ -2027 & 11,404 & \$748 & \$8,528,000 & -\$7,617,000\\ -\bottomrule -\end{tabular} -\end{table} - -Table \ref{tab:prices_revenues} summarizes the annual prices, revenues, -and changes relative to the baseline. - -The proposed action will result higher landings. The increase in -landings reduces herring prices slightly. Overall, we project an -\textbf{increase in revenues of -\$32,432,000} over the 2025-2027 time -period. When discounted at a 3\% discount rate, this corresponds to a -net present value \textbf{increase of -\$31,679,000}. Using a 7\% -discount rate, corresponds to a net present value \textbf{increase of --\$30,759,000}. - -\clearpage - -\hypertarget{regulatory-flexibility-act-analysis}{% -\subsection{Regulatory Flexibility Act -Analysis}\label{regulatory-flexibility-act-analysis}} - -\hypertarget{a-description-of-the-reasons-why-action-by-the-agency-is-being-considered.}{% -\subsubsection{A description of the reasons why action by the agency is -being -considered.}\label{a-description-of-the-reasons-why-action-by-the-agency-is-being-considered.}} - -\textcolor{red}{By reference} - -\hypertarget{a-succinct-statement-of-the-objectives-of-and-legal-basis-for-the-proposed-rule.}{% -\subsubsection{A succinct statement of the objectives of, and legal -basis for, the proposed -rule.}\label{a-succinct-statement-of-the-objectives-of-and-legal-basis-for-the-proposed-rule.}} - -\textcolor{red}{By reference} - -\hypertarget{number-of-small-entities}{% -\subsubsection{Number of Small -entities}\label{number-of-small-entities}} - -The directly-regulated entities are the firms that currently hold at -least 1 Northeast US herring fishing permit (Categories A, B, C, D, or -E). Table \ref{tab:make_DRE_table} describes numbers of -directly-regulated entities, their main activities, and their revenues -from various sources. 739 small firms derive the majority of their -revenue from commercial fishing operations. 10 of the large firms derive -the majority of their revenue from commercial fishing activities. - -There are 138 small firms that derive a majority of their revenue from -for-hire recreational fishing activities. The for-hire firms, while they -held at least one herring permit, did not derive any revenue from -herring. - -\begin{table}[!h] - -\caption{\label{tab:make_DRE_table}Number and Characterization of the Directly Regulated Entities and Average Trailing Three Years of Revenue} -\centering -\begin{tabu} to \linewidth {>{\raggedright}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X} -\toprule -\textbf{Size} & \textbf{Type} & \textbf{Firms} & \textbf{Vessels} & \textbf{Avg Gross Receipts} & \textbf{Avg Herring Receipts} & \textbf{25th pct Gross Receipts} & \textbf{75th pct Gross Receipts}\\ -\midrule -Large & Fishing & 10 & 675 & \$19,094,000 & \$98,000 & \$15,574,000 & \$22,438,000\\ -Small & Fishing & 739 & 5,870 & \$831,000 & \$7,000 & \$90,000 & \$1,030,000\\ -Small & For-Hire & 138 & 890 & \$215,000 & \$0 & \$12,000 & \$159,000\\ -\bottomrule -\end{tabu} -\end{table} - -Table \ref{tab:make_DRE_table} suggests that there are many small firms -in the herring industry and that herring is minimally important to those -firms. While all of the small Fishing firms described in table -\ref{tab:make_DRE_table} hold a herring permit, many of these firms only -hold a category-D open access permit which has a 6,600lb possession -limit. These D-only firms have limited opportunity to increase their -catch of herring when catch limits increase. They are also less impacted -by closures of the fishery when the catch limits are reached, because -the possession limits are set to 2,000 pounds when this occurs. Many of -the firms described in Table \ref{tab:make_DRE_table} are not actively -engaged in the herring fishery. The herring fishery has had historically -low ACLs since 2018 and some firms have stopped participating in the -fishery. They may hold herring permits to preserve the option to fish. -The increases ACLs in the proposed action may or may not be high enough -to induce participation. - -Table \ref{tab:Active_DREs} describes a subset of the directly-regulated -small entities, those that are both actively participating in the -herring fishery and hold a category A, B, C, or E herring permit. -Because there are fewer than 3 large firms, we only present a -description of the small firms. The small firms identified in table -\ref{tab:Active_DREs} are the firms most likely to be impacted by the -increases in ACLs in the proposed action. - -\begin{table} - -\caption{\label{tab:Active_DREs}Number and Characterization of the Small, Active Directly Regulated Entities with A, B, C, or E permit, Trailing Three Years of Data. Figures for the large firms cannot be presented to preserve confidentiality} -\centering -\begin{tabu} to \linewidth {>{\raggedright}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X} -\toprule -\textbf{Size} & \textbf{Type} & \textbf{Firms} & \textbf{Vessels} & \textbf{Avg Gross Receipts} & \textbf{Avg Herring Receipts} & \textbf{25th pct Gross Receipts} & \textbf{75th pct Gross Receipts}\\ -\midrule -Small & Fishing & 29 & 305 & \$1,510,000 & \$171,000 & \$495,000 & \$1,845,000\\ -\bottomrule -\end{tabu} -\end{table} - -\hypertarget{impacts-on-small-firms}{% -\subsubsection{Impacts on Small firms}\label{impacts-on-small-firms}} - -\begin{table} - -\caption{\label{tab:projected_revenues}Average projected and baseline gross reciepts and herring receipts for Small firms with A,B,C, or E permits Figures for large firms cannot be show due to data confidentiality.} -\centering -\begin{tabu} to \linewidth {>{\raggedright}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X>{\raggedleft}X} -\toprule -\textbf{Size} & \textbf{Type} & \textbf{Year} & \textbf{Firms} & \textbf{Projected Gross Receipts} & \textbf{Projected Herring Receipts} & \textbf{Baseline Gross Receipts} & \textbf{Baseline Herring Receipts}\\ -\midrule -Small & Fishing & 2025 & 29 & \$2,442,000 & \$60,000 & \$2,828,000 & \$447,000\\ -Small & Fishing & 2026 & 29 & \$2,529,000 & \$147,000 & \$2,828,000 & \$447,000\\ -Small & Fishing & 2027 & 29 & \$2,618,000 & \$236,000 & \$2,828,000 & \$447,000\\ -\bottomrule -\end{tabu} -\end{table} - -To describe the effects of the changes in catch limits on small firms, -we project firm-level revenue corresponding to 2023-2026. We assume that -the share of herring landings for each firm is equal to their 2019-2021 -average. We also assume the firms non-herring revenues are constant. -Inactive firms drop out and we focus on the vessels that have ABCE -permits. Table \ref{tab:projected_revenues} summarizes the projected -gross receipts, projected herring receipts, and baseline values. Figures -\ref{figure_boxR} and \ref{figure_boxH} illustrate the projected yearly -distribution of total and herring revenues from the Active vessels with -A,B,C, or E herring permits. - -\begin{figure} -\centering -\includegraphics{SIR2025_Economic_Impacts_files/figure-latex/boxplotsR-1.pdf} -\caption{\label{figure_boxR}Projected Firm Level Revenue, Small firms -only} -\end{figure} - -\begin{figure} -\centering -\includegraphics{SIR2025_Economic_Impacts_files/figure-latex/boxplots_H-1.pdf} -\caption{\label{figure_boxH}Projected Firm Level Herring Revenue, Small -firms only} -\end{figure} - -\hypertarget{compliance-requirements}{% -\subsubsection{Compliance Requirements}\label{compliance-requirements}} - -\textcolor{red}{A description of the projected reporting, record-keeping, and other compliance requirements of the proposed rule, including an estimate of the classes of small entities which will be subject to the requirements of the report or record.} - -\hypertarget{duplications}{% -\subsubsection{Duplications}\label{duplications}} - -\textcolor{red}{An identification, to the extent practicable, of all relevant Federal rules, which may duplicate, overlap, or conflict with the proposed rule.} - -\newpage - -\end{document}