From 77e7114fe65e8254ac10189a29408505a99c0f87 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "martin.holmer@gmail.com" Date: Wed, 10 Jul 2024 09:05:24 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/3] Adjust W2_WAGES_SCALE assumption --- tax_microdata_benchmarking/imputation_assumptions.py | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/imputation_assumptions.py b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/imputation_assumptions.py index 2264a008..368985b2 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/imputation_assumptions.py +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/imputation_assumptions.py @@ -6,4 +6,4 @@ IMPUTATION_BETA_RNG_SEED = 37465 # random number seed used for Beta variates -W2_WAGES_SCALE = 0.20 # parameter used to impute pass-through W-2 wages +W2_WAGES_SCALE = 0.16 # parameter used to impute pass-through W-2 wages From ca840d11a2eb6ba1ea1860df30b42725ae752629 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "martin.holmer@gmail.com" Date: Wed, 10 Jul 2024 09:59:11 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/3] Update 2023 examination results --- .../examination/results3.md | 22 +++++++++---------- .../taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect | 18 +++++++-------- 2 files changed, 20 insertions(+), 20 deletions(-) diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md index bde3345f..b4a3888d 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ Phase 3 Data Examination Results ================================ -**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-07 (after merge of PR 124)** +**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-10 (after merge of PR 131)** **FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED LATER IN JULY 2024** @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination methods](./methods.md) document. The model used to generate the following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 4.0.0 version (after -merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). +merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-10).
@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO | -| 1531.4 | 1775.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 1523.3 | 1775.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO | -| 2269.7 | 2894.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 2306.4 | 2894.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 2247.9 | 2742.2 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 122.1 | 57.6 | JCT | | 108.6 | 55.7 | TSY | -| 96.4 | 34.4 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 96.6 | 34.4 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 126.3 | 43.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 71.9 | 78.0 | JCT | | 63.6 | 71.2 | TSY | -| 77.5 | 86.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 77.4 | 86.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 73.5 | 82.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 45.9 | 56.4 | JCT | | 31.4 | 38.4 | TSY | -| 53.2 | 71.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 53.3 | 71.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 62.7 | 89.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | -56.5 | -53.8 | JCT | | ---- | ---- | TSY | -| -72.1 | -70.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| -56.7 | -70.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | -55.8 | -52.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 259.3 | 239.8 | JCT | | 153.9 | 182.4 | TSY | -| 233.1 | 221.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 223.2 | 221.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 217.7 | 223.6 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 56.2 | 0.0 | JCT | | 50.4 | 0.0 | TSY | -| 48.7 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 56.4 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 19.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -117,5 +117,5 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 21.2 | 151.3 | JCT | | 26.5 | 149.0 | TSY | -| 11.1 | 109.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 11.4 | 109.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 29.4 | 185.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect index 75232a3e..1e431f1b 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect @@ -1,27 +1,27 @@ Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax - A 201.82 18567.4 2269.7 1531.4 0.0 3801.1 + A 201.85 18672.5 2306.4 1523.3 0.0 3829.7 ==> tmd-23-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 233.1 0.0 0.0 233.1 + A 201.85 18672.5 223.2 0.0 0.0 223.2 ==> tmd-23-#-clp-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + A 201.85 18672.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ==> tmd-23-#-ctc-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 96.4 0.0 0.0 96.4 + A 201.85 18672.5 96.6 0.0 0.0 96.6 ==> tmd-23-#-eitc-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 77.5 0.0 0.0 77.5 + A 201.85 18672.5 77.4 0.0 0.0 77.4 ==> tmd-23-#-niit-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 -72.1 0.0 0.0 -72.1 + A 201.85 18672.5 -56.7 0.0 0.0 -56.7 ==> tmd-23-#-qbid-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 48.7 0.0 0.0 48.7 + A 201.85 18672.5 56.4 0.0 0.0 56.4 ==> tmd-23-#-salt-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 11.1 0.0 0.0 11.1 + A 201.85 18672.5 11.4 0.0 0.0 11.4 ==> tmd-23-#-ssben-#-tab.text <== - A 201.82 18567.4 53.2 0.0 0.0 53.2 + A 201.85 18672.5 53.3 0.0 0.0 53.3 From 23ec100206b74ea7e50500011a90bbbe29d417f3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "martin.holmer@gmail.com" Date: Wed, 10 Jul 2024 10:34:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/3] Update 2026 examination results --- .../examination/results3.md | 10 +++++----- .../taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect | 18 +++++++++--------- 2 files changed, 14 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-) diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md index b4a3888d..0029d995 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md @@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-10). | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO | -| 1523.3 | 1775.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 1523.3 | 1766.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-10). | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO | -| 2306.4 | 2894.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 2306.4 | 2958.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 2247.9 | 2742.2 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-10). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | -56.5 | -53.8 | JCT | | ---- | ---- | TSY | -| -56.7 | -70.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| -56.7 | -54.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | -55.8 | -52.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-10). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 259.3 | 239.8 | JCT | | 153.9 | 182.4 | TSY | -| 223.2 | 221.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 223.2 | 212.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 217.7 | 223.6 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -117,5 +117,5 @@ merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-10). | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 21.2 | 151.3 | JCT | | 26.5 | 149.0 | TSY | -| 11.4 | 109.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 11.4 | 108.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 29.4 | 185.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect index c3d4d106..0ebae0c2 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect @@ -1,27 +1,27 @@ Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax - A 208.40 21150.8 2894.5 1775.6 0.0 4670.1 + A 208.44 21270.0 2958.1 1766.8 0.0 4724.9 ==> tmd-26-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 221.8 0.0 0.0 221.8 + A 208.44 21270.0 212.0 0.0 0.0 212.0 ==> tmd-26-#-clp-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + A 208.44 21270.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ==> tmd-26-#-ctc-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 34.4 0.0 0.0 34.4 + A 208.44 21270.0 34.4 0.0 0.0 34.4 ==> tmd-26-#-eitc-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 86.9 0.0 0.0 86.9 + A 208.44 21270.0 86.9 0.0 0.0 86.9 ==> tmd-26-#-niit-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 -70.7 0.0 0.0 -70.7 + A 208.44 21270.0 -54.2 0.0 0.0 -54.2 ==> tmd-26-#-qbid-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + A 208.44 21270.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ==> tmd-26-#-salt-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 109.7 0.0 0.0 109.7 + A 208.44 21270.0 108.9 0.0 0.0 108.9 ==> tmd-26-#-ssben-#-tab.text <== - A 208.40 21150.8 71.8 0.0 0.0 71.8 + A 208.44 21270.0 71.8 0.0 0.0 71.8