diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md index 1a642bff..55f64d21 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md @@ -147,3 +147,62 @@ The 2026 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the `taxdata dataset` and in the `examination/taxcalculator/xb26-26.res-expect` file for the `phase 2 dataset`. + + +Model-plus-Dataset Estimates for Phase 3 +---------------------------------------- + +In the third phase of this project, the +[Tax-Calculator (3.6.?)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator) +microsimulation model is used to compute tax estimates that correspond +to the federal agency estimates described above. Tax-Calculator is +used with two different sets of 2023 and 2026 input datasets. + +The first, which is called the `taxdata dataset`, is the CSV-formatted +dataset created for Tax-Calculator in the [taxdata +repository](https://github.com/PSLmodels/taxdata). It contains 2011 +TSY SOI PUF data, supplemented with CPS data, that is extrapolated to +calendar year 2023 and to calendar year 2026. + +The second, which is called the `phase 3 dataset`, is a CSV-formatted +dataset developed by this project. It contains 2015 TSY SOI PUF data +enhanced with 2022 CPS data backcasted to 2015. The resulting 2015 +dataset is then extrapolated to 2021 and reweighted so that the 2021 +dataset generates aggregate and AGI-group statistics similar to those +published by TSY SOI for that year. + +In both these input dataset cases, the same procedure is used to +estimate the amounts corresponding to the federal agency estimates. +This procedure involves using the Tax-Calculator's +command-line-interface tool, +[`tc`](https://taxcalc.pslmodels.org/guide/cli.html), in the +`examination/taxcalculator` directory. The payroll and individual +income tax liabilities are estimated using the +[`clp.json`](./taxcalculator/clp.json) null reform to produce +estimates for 2023 or 2026 baseline tax policy. Each tax expenditure +estimate is generated using a simple reform that negates that feature +of baseline tax policy. The several `tc` runs are collected into a +single shell script called `examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh`, which +in turn calls the `examination/taxcalculator/execute.sh` script for +each run. The simple tax expenditure reforms are included in the +following JSON files: + +* **CTC Tax Expenditure**: [`ctc.json`](./taxcalculator/ctc.json) +* **EITC Tax Expenditure**: [`eitc.json`](./taxcalculator/eitc.json) +* **SSBEN Tax Expenditure**: [`ssben.json`](./taxcalculator/ssben.json) +* **NIIT Tax Expenditure**: [`niit.json`](./taxcalculator/niit.json) +* **CGQD Tax Expenditure**: [`cgqd.json`](./taxcalculator/cgqd.json) +* **QBID Tax Expenditure**: [`qbid.json`](./taxcalculator/qbid.json) +* **SALT Tax Expenditure**: [`salt.json`](./taxcalculator/salt.json) + +The 2023 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the +`examination/taxcalculator/puf-23.res-expect` file for the +`taxdata dataset` and in the +`examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect` file for the +`phase 3 dataset`. + +The 2026 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the +`examination/taxcalculator/puf-26.res-expect` file for the +`taxdata dataset` and in the +`examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect` file for the +`phase 3 dataset`. diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2a6cf648 --- /dev/null +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +Phase 3 Data Examination Results +================================ + +**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-05-03** + +**FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED IN JULY 2024** + +This project is developing a new dataset for use by income and payroll +tax microsimulation models. The project is progressing in several +phases. At the end of each phase the current dataset is used as input +to a tax microsimulation model to generate several basic tax +estimates for calendar years 2023 and 2026. These estimates are +then compared with corresponding estimates generated by federal +agencies using their more comprehensive data. Examining the +differences between the estimates generated from this project's data +and the estimates published by the federal agencies should provide +ideas about how to improve the development of this project's dataset +in subsequent phases. + +For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the +model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination +methods](./methods.md) document. The model used to generate the +following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 3.6.? version. + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 Payroll Tax Liability** ($ billion)
+(federal employee plus employer share) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO | +| 1618.3 | 1875.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 Individual Income Tax Liability** ($ billion)
+(federal individual income tax) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO | +| 2316.7 | 2935.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 2247.8 | 2742.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 CTC Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the federal child tax credit) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 122.1 | 57.6 | JCT | +| 108.6 | 55.7 | TSY | +| 124.6 | 44.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 126.2 | 43.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 EITC Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the federal earned income credit) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 71.9 | 78.0 | JCT | +| 63.6 | 71.2 | TSY | +| 70.0 | 78.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 73.5 | 82.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 SSBEN Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from excluding some social security benefits from federal AGI) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 45.9 | 56.4 | JCT | +| 31.4 | 38.4 | TSY | +| 81.9 | 109.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 62.7 | 89.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 NIIT Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the 3.8% federal surtax on investment income) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| -56.5 | -53.8 | JCT | +| ---- | ---- | TSY | +| -67.9 | -66.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| -55.8 | -52.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 CGQD Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from taxing long-term capital gains and qualified dividends at lower federal rates) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 259.3 | 239.8 | JCT | +| 153.9 | 182.4 | TSY | +| 271.9 | 271.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 217.7 | 223.6 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 QBID Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the 20% federal qualified business income deduction) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 56.2 | 0.0 | JCT | +| 50.4 | 0.0 | TSY | +| 63.2 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 19.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 SALT Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from itemized deduction of state and local income/sales/property taxes) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 21.2 | 151.3 | JCT | +| 26.5 | 149.0 | TSY | +| 15.8 | 195.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 29.4 | 185.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |