From 4be084f7e9e9c15aac7399cd774e06764c9b41df Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "martin.holmer@gmail.com" Date: Fri, 3 May 2024 10:10:32 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] Revise examination/runs.sh script to use tmd input data --- .gitignore | 1 + .../examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh | 24 ++++------------- .../taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect | 27 +++++++++++++++++++ .../taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect | 27 +++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 60 insertions(+), 19 deletions(-) create mode 100644 tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect create mode 100644 tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 9d585860..40561505 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ **/*.h5 **/*.pyc +**/*.csv.zip **/*.csv.gz !tax_microdata_benchmarking/tmd_weights.csv.gz **/*.egg-info diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh index d844b8fc..714ea5dc 100755 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh @@ -2,11 +2,11 @@ # Execute several Tax-Calculator runs using the execute.sh script. # USAGE: # ./runs.sh DATAFILE(without_trailing_.csv) YEAR(tailing_two_digits) -# DATAFILES: puf|pe23|xb23|xb26|xc23|xc26 +# DATAFILES: puf|pe23|xb23|xb26|tmd # (where puf is from the taxdata repository) # (where pe23 is the Phase 1 work product) # (where xb23 and xb26 are Phase 2 work products) -# (where xc23 and xc26 are Phase 3 work products) +# (where tmd is from a Phase 3 work product) D="DATAFILE(without_trailing_.csv)" Y="YEAR(tailing_two_digits)" @@ -46,26 +46,12 @@ if [[ "$1" == "xb26" ]]; then fi OK=1 fi -if [[ "$1" == "xc23" ]]; then - unzip -oq xc23.csv.zip - if [[ "$2" != "23" ]]; then - echo "ERROR: YEAR not equal to 23" >&2 - echo "USAGE: ./runs.sh xc23 23" >&2 - exit 1 - fi - OK=1 -fi -if [[ "$1" == "xc26" ]]; then - unzip -oq xc26.csv.zip - if [[ "$2" != "26" ]]; then - echo "ERROR: YEAR not equal to 26" >&2 - echo "USAGE: ./runs.sh xc26 26" >&2 - exit 1 - fi +if [[ "$1" == "tmd" ]]; then + unzip -oq tmd.csv.zip OK=1 fi if [[ "$OK" -ne 1 ]]; then - echo "ERROR: DATAFILE is neither 'puf' nor 'pe23'" >&2 + echo "ERROR: illegal DATAFILE" >&2 echo "USAGE: ./runs.sh $D $Y" >&2 exit 1 fi diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5af38dd2 --- /dev/null +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile + Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax + A 222.52 20244.4 2316.7 1618.3 0.0 3935.0 + +==> tmd-23-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 271.9 0.0 0.0 271.9 + +==> tmd-23-#-clp-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + +==> tmd-23-#-ctc-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 124.6 0.0 0.0 124.6 + +==> tmd-23-#-eitc-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 70.0 0.0 0.0 70.0 + +==> tmd-23-#-niit-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 -67.9 0.0 0.0 -67.9 + +==> tmd-23-#-qbid-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 63.2 0.0 0.0 63.2 + +==> tmd-23-#-salt-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 15.8 0.0 0.0 15.8 + +==> tmd-23-#-ssben-#-tab.text <== + A 222.52 20244.4 81.9 0.0 0.0 81.9 diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2e327a59 --- /dev/null +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile + Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax + A 229.78 23031.6 2935.1 1875.7 0.0 4810.8 + +==> tmd-26-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 271.1 0.0 0.0 271.1 + +==> tmd-26-#-clp-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + +==> tmd-26-#-ctc-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 44.7 0.0 0.0 44.7 + +==> tmd-26-#-eitc-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 78.7 0.0 0.0 78.7 + +==> tmd-26-#-niit-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 -66.2 0.0 0.0 -66.2 + +==> tmd-26-#-qbid-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + +==> tmd-26-#-salt-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 195.6 0.0 0.0 195.6 + +==> tmd-26-#-ssben-#-tab.text <== + A 229.78 23031.6 109.8 0.0 0.0 109.8 From 7552e646a5b7b352e8b5e2eeb4eaad2575834f1b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "martin.holmer@gmail.com" Date: Fri, 3 May 2024 10:33:10 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] Add preliminary examination/results3.md document --- .../examination/methods.md | 59 +++++++++ .../examination/results3.md | 120 ++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 179 insertions(+) create mode 100644 tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md index 1a642bff..55f64d21 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md @@ -147,3 +147,62 @@ The 2026 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the `taxdata dataset` and in the `examination/taxcalculator/xb26-26.res-expect` file for the `phase 2 dataset`. + + +Model-plus-Dataset Estimates for Phase 3 +---------------------------------------- + +In the third phase of this project, the +[Tax-Calculator (3.6.?)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator) +microsimulation model is used to compute tax estimates that correspond +to the federal agency estimates described above. Tax-Calculator is +used with two different sets of 2023 and 2026 input datasets. + +The first, which is called the `taxdata dataset`, is the CSV-formatted +dataset created for Tax-Calculator in the [taxdata +repository](https://github.com/PSLmodels/taxdata). It contains 2011 +TSY SOI PUF data, supplemented with CPS data, that is extrapolated to +calendar year 2023 and to calendar year 2026. + +The second, which is called the `phase 3 dataset`, is a CSV-formatted +dataset developed by this project. It contains 2015 TSY SOI PUF data +enhanced with 2022 CPS data backcasted to 2015. The resulting 2015 +dataset is then extrapolated to 2021 and reweighted so that the 2021 +dataset generates aggregate and AGI-group statistics similar to those +published by TSY SOI for that year. + +In both these input dataset cases, the same procedure is used to +estimate the amounts corresponding to the federal agency estimates. +This procedure involves using the Tax-Calculator's +command-line-interface tool, +[`tc`](https://taxcalc.pslmodels.org/guide/cli.html), in the +`examination/taxcalculator` directory. The payroll and individual +income tax liabilities are estimated using the +[`clp.json`](./taxcalculator/clp.json) null reform to produce +estimates for 2023 or 2026 baseline tax policy. Each tax expenditure +estimate is generated using a simple reform that negates that feature +of baseline tax policy. The several `tc` runs are collected into a +single shell script called `examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh`, which +in turn calls the `examination/taxcalculator/execute.sh` script for +each run. The simple tax expenditure reforms are included in the +following JSON files: + +* **CTC Tax Expenditure**: [`ctc.json`](./taxcalculator/ctc.json) +* **EITC Tax Expenditure**: [`eitc.json`](./taxcalculator/eitc.json) +* **SSBEN Tax Expenditure**: [`ssben.json`](./taxcalculator/ssben.json) +* **NIIT Tax Expenditure**: [`niit.json`](./taxcalculator/niit.json) +* **CGQD Tax Expenditure**: [`cgqd.json`](./taxcalculator/cgqd.json) +* **QBID Tax Expenditure**: [`qbid.json`](./taxcalculator/qbid.json) +* **SALT Tax Expenditure**: [`salt.json`](./taxcalculator/salt.json) + +The 2023 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the +`examination/taxcalculator/puf-23.res-expect` file for the +`taxdata dataset` and in the +`examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect` file for the +`phase 3 dataset`. + +The 2026 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the +`examination/taxcalculator/puf-26.res-expect` file for the +`taxdata dataset` and in the +`examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect` file for the +`phase 3 dataset`. diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2a6cf648 --- /dev/null +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md @@ -0,0 +1,120 @@ +Phase 3 Data Examination Results +================================ + +**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-05-03** + +**FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED IN JULY 2024** + +This project is developing a new dataset for use by income and payroll +tax microsimulation models. The project is progressing in several +phases. At the end of each phase the current dataset is used as input +to a tax microsimulation model to generate several basic tax +estimates for calendar years 2023 and 2026. These estimates are +then compared with corresponding estimates generated by federal +agencies using their more comprehensive data. Examining the +differences between the estimates generated from this project's data +and the estimates published by the federal agencies should provide +ideas about how to improve the development of this project's dataset +in subsequent phases. + +For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the +model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination +methods](./methods.md) document. The model used to generate the +following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 3.6.? version. + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 Payroll Tax Liability** ($ billion)
+(federal employee plus employer share) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO | +| 1618.3 | 1875.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 Individual Income Tax Liability** ($ billion)
+(federal individual income tax) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO | +| 2316.7 | 2935.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 2247.8 | 2742.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 CTC Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the federal child tax credit) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 122.1 | 57.6 | JCT | +| 108.6 | 55.7 | TSY | +| 124.6 | 44.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 126.2 | 43.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 EITC Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the federal earned income credit) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 71.9 | 78.0 | JCT | +| 63.6 | 71.2 | TSY | +| 70.0 | 78.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 73.5 | 82.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 SSBEN Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from excluding some social security benefits from federal AGI) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 45.9 | 56.4 | JCT | +| 31.4 | 38.4 | TSY | +| 81.9 | 109.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 62.7 | 89.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 NIIT Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the 3.8% federal surtax on investment income) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| -56.5 | -53.8 | JCT | +| ---- | ---- | TSY | +| -67.9 | -66.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| -55.8 | -52.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 CGQD Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from taxing long-term capital gains and qualified dividends at lower federal rates) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 259.3 | 239.8 | JCT | +| 153.9 | 182.4 | TSY | +| 271.9 | 271.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 217.7 | 223.6 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 QBID Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from the 20% federal qualified business income deduction) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 56.2 | 0.0 | JCT | +| 50.4 | 0.0 | TSY | +| 63.2 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 19.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset | + +
+ +**CY2023 and CY2026 SALT Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)
+(from itemized deduction of state and local income/sales/property taxes) +| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | +| ---: | ---: | :--- | +| 21.2 | 151.3 | JCT | +| 26.5 | 149.0 | TSY | +| 15.8 | 195.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 29.4 | 185.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |