diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 0baf03a4..54e9ca9b 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -22,5 +22,5 @@ created in each project phase: [phase 1
results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results1.md) and
[phase 2
results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results2.md) and
-[PRELIMINARY phase 3
+[phase 3
results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md).
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md
index 55f64d21..b597eda4 100644
--- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md
+++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md
@@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ Model-plus-Dataset Estimates for Phase 3
----------------------------------------
In the third phase of this project, the
-[Tax-Calculator (3.6.?)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)
+[Tax-Calculator (4.2.0)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)
microsimulation model is used to compute tax estimates that correspond
to the federal agency estimates described above. Tax-Calculator is
used with two different sets of 2023 and 2026 input datasets.
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md
index cdc7bded..354f20c6 100644
--- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md
+++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md
@@ -1,9 +1,7 @@
Phase 3 Data Examination Results
================================
-**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-16 (after merge of PR 148)**
-
-**FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED LATER IN JULY 2024**
+**FINAL RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-21 (after merge of PR 155)**
This project is developing a new dataset for use by income and payroll
tax microsimulation models. The project is progressing in several
@@ -20,8 +18,9 @@ in subsequent phases.
For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the
model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination
methods](./methods.md) document. The model used to generate the
-following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 4.1.0 version (after
-merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-11).
+following Phase 3 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
+4.2.0]((https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)) (after merge of
+PR 2774 on 2024-07-21).
Note that Tax-Calculator assumes 100% participation in credits (like
CTC and EITC), while the federal agencies assume less than 100%
@@ -35,7 +34,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO |
-| 1518.3 | 1761.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 1523.8 | 1767.4 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -45,7 +44,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO (probably assumes less than 100% credit participation) |
-| 2215.0 | 2786.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
+| 2212.0 | 2786.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 2247.9 | 2742.2 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |
@@ -56,7 +55,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 122.1 | 57.6 | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 108.6 | 55.7 | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) |
-| 132.2 | 48.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
+| 129.2 | 46.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 126.3 | 43.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |
@@ -67,7 +66,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 71.9 | 78.0 | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 63.6 | 71.2 | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) |
-| 78.6 | 88.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
+| 75.8 | 84.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 73.5 | 82.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |
@@ -78,7 +77,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 45.9 | 56.4 | JCT |
| 31.4 | 38.4 | TSY |
-| 52.2 | 70.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 53.3 | 72.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 62.7 | 89.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -89,7 +88,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| -56.5 | -53.8 | JCT |
| ---- | ---- | TSY |
-| -52.9 | -51.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| -57.0 | -55.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| -55.8 | -52.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -100,7 +99,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 259.3 | 239.8 | JCT |
| 153.9 | 182.4 | TSY |
-| 221.7 | 221.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 234.3 | 232.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 217.7 | 223.6 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -111,7 +110,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 56.2 | 0.0 | JCT |
| 50.4 | 0.0 | TSY |
-| 54.1 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 55.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 19.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -122,7 +121,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 21.2 | 151.3 | JCT |
| 26.5 | 149.0 | TSY |
-| 20.4 | 160.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 20.8 | 162.3 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 29.4 | 185.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -147,15 +146,15 @@ provisions, not the potential tax benefits to which taxpayers are
entitled." (Quote is from page 18 of the JCX-59-23 publication.)
The only IRS credit participation rates we have found are for the
-EITC, and they are a little bit below 80% and they seem to be tax-unit
-participation rates rather than credit amount (or dollar)
-participation rates. (See this [IRS
+EITC, and they almost 80% and they are tax-unit participation rates
+rather than credit amount (or dollar) participation rates. (See this
+[IRS
document](https://www.eitc.irs.gov/eitc-central/participation-rate-by-state/eitc-participation-rate-by-states).)
Given the differing credit participation assumptions, it should be
expected that the Tax-Calculator CTC and EITC tax expenditures are
above the JCT estimates. The following calculations, which
-arbitrarily assume a 90% dollar participation rate, illustrate how
+arbitrarily assume a 95% dollar participation rate, illustrate how
the differing 2023 estimates are not as far apart as they seem.
@@ -164,11 +163,11 @@ the differing 2023 estimates are not as far apart as they seem.
| CY23 Amount | Estimate Source |
| ---: | :--- |
| 122.1 | CTC JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
-| 132.2 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
-| 119.0 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (90% participation) |
+| 129.2 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
+| 122.7 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (95% participation) |
| | |
| 71.9 | EITC JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
-| 78.6 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
-| 70.7 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (90% participation) |
+| 75.8 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
+| 72.0 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (95% participation) |
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect
index c67a7752..be39851d 100644
--- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect
+++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect
@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax
- A 201.79 18540.2 2215.0 1518.3 0.0 3733.3
+ A 202.66 18609.5 2212.0 1523.8 0.0 3735.8
==> tmd-23-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 221.7 0.0 0.0 221.7
+ A 202.66 18609.5 234.3 0.0 0.0 234.3
==> tmd-23-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ A 202.66 18609.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
==> tmd-23-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 132.2 0.0 0.0 132.2
+ A 202.66 18609.5 129.2 0.0 0.0 129.2
==> tmd-23-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 78.6 0.0 0.0 78.6
+ A 202.66 18609.5 75.8 0.0 0.0 75.8
==> tmd-23-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 -52.9 0.0 0.0 -52.9
+ A 202.66 18609.5 -57.0 0.0 0.0 -57.0
==> tmd-23-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 54.1 0.0 0.0 54.1
+ A 202.66 18609.5 55.3 0.0 0.0 55.3
==> tmd-23-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 20.4 0.0 0.0 20.4
+ A 202.66 18609.5 20.8 0.0 0.0 20.8
==> tmd-23-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
- A 201.79 18540.2 52.2 0.0 0.0 52.2
+ A 202.66 18609.5 53.3 0.0 0.0 53.3
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect
index bd384051..ebed1c76 100644
--- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect
+++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect
@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax
- A 208.38 21107.7 2786.5 1761.0 0.0 4547.4
+ A 209.28 21187.8 2786.1 1767.4 0.0 4553.5
==> tmd-26-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 221.9 0.0 0.0 221.9
+ A 209.28 21187.8 232.5 0.0 0.0 232.5
==> tmd-26-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ A 209.28 21187.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
==> tmd-26-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 48.6 0.0 0.0 48.6
+ A 209.28 21187.8 46.8 0.0 0.0 46.8
==> tmd-26-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 88.0 0.0 0.0 88.0
+ A 209.28 21187.8 84.8 0.0 0.0 84.8
==> tmd-26-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 -51.2 0.0 0.0 -51.2
+ A 209.28 21187.8 -55.1 0.0 0.0 -55.1
==> tmd-26-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
+ A 209.28 21187.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
==> tmd-26-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 160.5 0.0 0.0 160.5
+ A 209.28 21187.8 162.3 0.0 0.0 162.3
==> tmd-26-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
- A 208.38 21107.7 70.9 0.0 0.0 70.9
+ A 209.28 21187.8 72.2 0.0 0.0 72.2