From d88719af21e5b44ef6043d54beae612c8d0f1916 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: "martin.holmer@gmail.com" Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2024 12:03:11 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Update Phase3 examination results --- README.md | 2 +- .../examination/methods.md | 2 +- .../examination/results3.md | 43 +++++++++---------- .../taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect | 18 ++++---- .../taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect | 18 ++++---- 5 files changed, 41 insertions(+), 42 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 0baf03a4..54e9ca9b 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -22,5 +22,5 @@ created in each project phase: [phase 1 results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results1.md) and [phase 2 results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results2.md) and -[PRELIMINARY phase 3 +[phase 3 results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md). diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md index 55f64d21..b597eda4 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md @@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ Model-plus-Dataset Estimates for Phase 3 ---------------------------------------- In the third phase of this project, the -[Tax-Calculator (3.6.?)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator) +[Tax-Calculator (4.2.0)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator) microsimulation model is used to compute tax estimates that correspond to the federal agency estimates described above. Tax-Calculator is used with two different sets of 2023 and 2026 input datasets. diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md index cdc7bded..354f20c6 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md @@ -1,9 +1,7 @@ Phase 3 Data Examination Results ================================ -**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-16 (after merge of PR 148)** - -**FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED LATER IN JULY 2024** +**FINAL RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-21 (after merge of PR 155)** This project is developing a new dataset for use by income and payroll tax microsimulation models. The project is progressing in several @@ -20,8 +18,9 @@ in subsequent phases. For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination methods](./methods.md) document. The model used to generate the -following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 4.1.0 version (after -merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-11). +following Phase 3 estimates is [Tax-Calculator +4.2.0]((https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)) (after merge of +PR 2774 on 2024-07-21). Note that Tax-Calculator assumes 100% participation in credits (like CTC and EITC), while the federal agencies assume less than 100% @@ -35,7 +34,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO | -| 1518.3 | 1761.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 1523.8 | 1767.4 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -45,7 +44,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source | | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO (probably assumes less than 100% credit participation) | -| 2215.0 | 2786.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | +| 2212.0 | 2786.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | | 2247.9 | 2742.2 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |
@@ -56,7 +55,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 122.1 | 57.6 | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) | | 108.6 | 55.7 | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) | -| 132.2 | 48.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | +| 129.2 | 46.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | | 126.3 | 43.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |
@@ -67,7 +66,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 71.9 | 78.0 | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) | | 63.6 | 71.2 | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) | -| 78.6 | 88.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | +| 75.8 | 84.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | | 73.5 | 82.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |
@@ -78,7 +77,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 45.9 | 56.4 | JCT | | 31.4 | 38.4 | TSY | -| 52.2 | 70.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 53.3 | 72.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 62.7 | 89.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -89,7 +88,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | ---: | ---: | :--- | | -56.5 | -53.8 | JCT | | ---- | ---- | TSY | -| -52.9 | -51.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| -57.0 | -55.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | -55.8 | -52.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -100,7 +99,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 259.3 | 239.8 | JCT | | 153.9 | 182.4 | TSY | -| 221.7 | 221.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 234.3 | 232.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 217.7 | 223.6 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -111,7 +110,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 56.2 | 0.0 | JCT | | 50.4 | 0.0 | TSY | -| 54.1 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 55.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 19.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -122,7 +121,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables. | ---: | ---: | :--- | | 21.2 | 151.3 | JCT | | 26.5 | 149.0 | TSY | -| 20.4 | 160.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | +| 20.8 | 162.3 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset | | 29.4 | 185.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
@@ -147,15 +146,15 @@ provisions, not the potential tax benefits to which taxpayers are entitled." (Quote is from page 18 of the JCX-59-23 publication.) The only IRS credit participation rates we have found are for the -EITC, and they are a little bit below 80% and they seem to be tax-unit -participation rates rather than credit amount (or dollar) -participation rates. (See this [IRS +EITC, and they almost 80% and they are tax-unit participation rates +rather than credit amount (or dollar) participation rates. (See this +[IRS document](https://www.eitc.irs.gov/eitc-central/participation-rate-by-state/eitc-participation-rate-by-states).) Given the differing credit participation assumptions, it should be expected that the Tax-Calculator CTC and EITC tax expenditures are above the JCT estimates. The following calculations, which -arbitrarily assume a 90% dollar participation rate, illustrate how +arbitrarily assume a 95% dollar participation rate, illustrate how the differing 2023 estimates are not as far apart as they seem.
@@ -164,11 +163,11 @@ the differing 2023 estimates are not as far apart as they seem. | CY23 Amount | Estimate Source | | ---: | :--- | | 122.1 | CTC JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) | -| 132.2 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | -| 119.0 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (90% participation) | +| 129.2 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | +| 122.7 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (95% participation) | | | | | 71.9 | EITC JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) | -| 78.6 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | -| 70.7 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (90% participation) | +| 75.8 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) | +| 72.0 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (95% participation) |
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect index c67a7752..be39851d 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect @@ -1,27 +1,27 @@ Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax - A 201.79 18540.2 2215.0 1518.3 0.0 3733.3 + A 202.66 18609.5 2212.0 1523.8 0.0 3735.8 ==> tmd-23-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 221.7 0.0 0.0 221.7 + A 202.66 18609.5 234.3 0.0 0.0 234.3 ==> tmd-23-#-clp-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + A 202.66 18609.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ==> tmd-23-#-ctc-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 132.2 0.0 0.0 132.2 + A 202.66 18609.5 129.2 0.0 0.0 129.2 ==> tmd-23-#-eitc-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 78.6 0.0 0.0 78.6 + A 202.66 18609.5 75.8 0.0 0.0 75.8 ==> tmd-23-#-niit-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 -52.9 0.0 0.0 -52.9 + A 202.66 18609.5 -57.0 0.0 0.0 -57.0 ==> tmd-23-#-qbid-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 54.1 0.0 0.0 54.1 + A 202.66 18609.5 55.3 0.0 0.0 55.3 ==> tmd-23-#-salt-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 20.4 0.0 0.0 20.4 + A 202.66 18609.5 20.8 0.0 0.0 20.8 ==> tmd-23-#-ssben-#-tab.text <== - A 201.79 18540.2 52.2 0.0 0.0 52.2 + A 202.66 18609.5 53.3 0.0 0.0 53.3 diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect index bd384051..ebed1c76 100644 --- a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect +++ b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect @@ -1,27 +1,27 @@ Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax - A 208.38 21107.7 2786.5 1761.0 0.0 4547.4 + A 209.28 21187.8 2786.1 1767.4 0.0 4553.5 ==> tmd-26-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 221.9 0.0 0.0 221.9 + A 209.28 21187.8 232.5 0.0 0.0 232.5 ==> tmd-26-#-clp-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + A 209.28 21187.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ==> tmd-26-#-ctc-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 48.6 0.0 0.0 48.6 + A 209.28 21187.8 46.8 0.0 0.0 46.8 ==> tmd-26-#-eitc-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 88.0 0.0 0.0 88.0 + A 209.28 21187.8 84.8 0.0 0.0 84.8 ==> tmd-26-#-niit-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 -51.2 0.0 0.0 -51.2 + A 209.28 21187.8 -55.1 0.0 0.0 -55.1 ==> tmd-26-#-qbid-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 + A 209.28 21187.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ==> tmd-26-#-salt-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 160.5 0.0 0.0 160.5 + A 209.28 21187.8 162.3 0.0 0.0 162.3 ==> tmd-26-#-ssben-#-tab.text <== - A 208.38 21107.7 70.9 0.0 0.0 70.9 + A 209.28 21187.8 72.2 0.0 0.0 72.2