From d660992bd34e60234e80fae33bce3cc875059f53 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Nikhil Woodruff <35577657+nikhilwoodruff@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2024 14:46:54 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] Update OBR economic forecasts (#993)

* Fix secondary threshold in 2028

* Update economic forecasts for OBR EFO
---
 changelog_entry.yaml                          |  4 +++
 .../gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml |  2 +-
 .../parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml  | 16 ++++-----
 .../gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml         | 12 +++----
 .../parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml      | 20 +++++------
 .../parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml      | 14 ++++----
 .../parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml |  2 +-
 .../parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml | 26 +++++----------
 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/rpi.yaml   | 33 +++++++------------
 .../obr_elasticities.yaml                     |  6 ++++
 10 files changed, 62 insertions(+), 73 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/labor_supply_responses/obr_elasticities.yaml

diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml
index e69de29bb..f4c2c46fa 100644
--- a/changelog_entry.yaml
+++ b/changelog_entry.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+- bump: minor
+  changes:
+    added:
+    - OBR Autumn 2024 EFO economic factors.
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml
index 13b80d466..9255bbadb 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/fuel_duty/petrol_and_diesel.yaml
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ values:
       reference:
       - title: Costing Document - Spring Budget 2023 (page 25)
         href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1142824/Costing_Document_-_Spring_Budget_2023.pdf#page=9
-  2024-04-01:
+  2025-04-01:
     value: 0.5795
     metadata:
       reference:
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml
index 2b4b75201..014edc984 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml
@@ -14,14 +14,14 @@ values:
   2019-01-01: 125.4
   2020-01-01: 125.7
   2021-01-01: 133.3
-  2022-01-01: 140.9
-  2023-01-01: 150.0
-  2024-01-01: 154.6
-  2025-01-01: 157.5
-  2026-01-01: 160.9
-  2027-01-01: 164.6
-  2028-01-01: 168.9
-  2029-01-01: 173.3 # Projected
+  2022-01-01: 141.1
+  2023-01-01: 151.3
+  2024-01-01: 158.2
+  2025-01-01: 162.9
+  2026-01-01: 166.3
+  2027-01-01: 169.6
+  2028-01-01: 173.6
+  2029-01-01: 178.2
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml
index 3cf7fe8ca..eee3816a9 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml
@@ -11,12 +11,12 @@ values:
   2021-01-01: 113.2
   2022-01-01: 124.6
   2023-01-01: 131.7
-  2024-01-01: 133.8
-  2025-01-01: 135.9
-  2026-01-01: 138.2
-  2027-01-01: 140.9
-  2028-01-01: 143.7
-  2029-01-01: 146.6 # Projected
+  2024-01-01: 134.7
+  2025-01-01: 138.1
+  2026-01-01: 141.1
+  2027-01-01: 144.1
+  2028-01-01: 147.1
+  2029-01-01: 150.1
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml
index caafb7c17..92bb60425 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml
@@ -12,16 +12,16 @@ values:
   2017-01-01: 116.2
   2018-01-01: 119.3
   2019-01-01: 120.4
-  2020-01-01: 125.9
-  2021-01-01: 137.2
-  2022-01-01: 148.7
-  2023-01-01: 147.6
-  2024-01-01: 144.1
-  2025-01-01: 144.8
-  2026-01-01: 148.6
-  2027-01-01: 153.8
-  2028-01-01: 159.5
-  2029-01-01: 165.7 # Projected
+  2020-01-01: 125.7
+  2021-01-01: 136.1
+  2022-01-01: 147.3
+  2023-01-01: 146.0
+  2024-01-01: 149.6
+  2025-01-01: 150.9
+  2026-01-01: 154.0
+  2027-01-01: 158.3
+  2028-01-01: 163.0
+  2029-01-01: 167.9
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml
index fc72b64bb..f1d43f5a7 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml
@@ -11,13 +11,13 @@ values:
   2020-01-01: 153.7
   2021-01-01: 158.3
   2022-01-01: 161.9
-  2023-01-01: 171.5
-  2024-01-01: 178.2
-  2025-01-01: 185.3
-  2026-01-01: 193.5
-  2027-01-01: 202.3
-  2028-01-01: 211.8
-  2029-01-01: 221.9 # Projected
+  2023-01-01: 170.2
+  2024-01-01: 177.6
+  2025-01-01: 188.3
+  2026-01-01: 196.7
+  2027-01-01: 205.3
+  2028-01-01: 214.6
+  2029-01-01: 225.0
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml
index 25f5dc8a3..938215f6e 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 113.2
   2027-01-01: 119.7
   2028-01-01: 125.2
-  2029-01-01: 130.7 # Projected
+  2029-01-01: 130.7
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml
index fbfc27e87..8d4aa6468 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml
@@ -1,23 +1,13 @@
 description: OBR forecast for non-labour income.
 values:
-  2012-01-01: 268.6
-  2013-01-01: 281.4
-  2014-01-01: 298.4
-  2015-01-01: 335.0
-  2016-01-01: 329.0
-  2017-01-01: 339.3
-  2018-01-01: 355.1
-  2019-01-01: 363.9
-  2020-01-01: 342.5
-  2021-01-01: 367.1
-  2022-01-01: 425.2
-  2023-01-01: 458.1
-  2024-01-01: 456.5
-  2025-01-01: 482.6
-  2026-01-01: 504.4
-  2027-01-01: 543.6
-  2028-01-01: 585.3
-  2029-01-01: 629.3 # Projected
+  2022-01-01: 414.6
+  2023-01-01: 443.9
+  2024-01-01: 460.8
+  2025-01-01: 488.9
+  2026-01-01: 512.7
+  2027-01-01: 535.0
+  2028-01-01: 554.0
+  2029-01-01: 571.8
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/rpi.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/rpi.yaml
index a340246c8..19225e4a8 100644
--- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/rpi.yaml
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/ons/rpi.yaml
@@ -1,27 +1,16 @@
 description: Retail Price Index (RPI) is a measure of inflation published by the Office for National Statistics.
+
 values:
-  2022-10-01: 358.30
-  2023-01-01: 361.85
-  2023-04-01: 371.31
-  2023-07-01: 373.32
-  2023-10-01: 375.80
-  2024-01-01: 371.54
-  2024-04-01: 377.20
-  2024-07-01: 377.75
-  2024-10-01: 379.82
-  2025-01-01: 375.60
-  2025-04-01: 380.05
-  2025-07-01: 381.41
-  2025-10-01: 383.92
-  2026-01-01: 380.07
-  2026-04-01: 385.92
-  2026-07-01: 388.59
-  2026-10-01: 392.69
-  2027-01-01: 389.92
-  2027-04-01: 396.43
-  2027-07-01: 399.90
-  2027-10-01: 404.38
-  2028-01-01: 401.96
+  2021-01-01: 311.2
+  2022-01-01: 322.2
+  2023-01-01: 333.2
+  2024-01-01: 351.2
+  2025-01-01: 377.5
+  2026-01-01: 390.2
+  2027-01-01: 403.7
+  2028-01-01: 416.6
+  2029-01-01: 429.3
+
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   label: RPI
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/labor_supply_responses/obr_elasticities.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/labor_supply_responses/obr_elasticities.yaml
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..1863cef1e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/simulation/labor_supply_responses/obr_elasticities.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+description: Use the OBR's progression elasticities for the labor supply responses.
+values:
+  2000-01-01: 0
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-GBP
+  reference: none
\ No newline at end of file