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This repository has been archived by the owner on Jan 10, 2024. It is now read-only.
Others (Mataculus) have found that low confidence predictions can be better calibrated than high confidence predictions. Pbook should not fold prediction graphs at 50%.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered:
This would also be beneficial from the UX perspective: I've noted a fair number of people are confused by the plot 50-100%, since it doesn't occur to them that PB might be negating <50% predictions and calibrating that way. A straightforward 0-100% graph will be noisier (since it halves the sample size in each bin) but much more easily interpreted.
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Others (Mataculus) have found that low confidence predictions can be better calibrated than high confidence predictions. Pbook should not fold prediction graphs at 50%.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered: