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The two datasets needed to reproduce this article are included in the data folder.

  • table1_respondentsRCI: contains RCI of each party for 9135 respondents surveyed through monthly surveys conducted from January to August 2022. The electoral riding of each respondent is also included.
  • table2_duringCampaign: contains the predicted vote shares of the parties for each electoral riding during the campaign as found on Qc125.com.

These two datasets are then agregated into a third dataset, table3_aggregatedData which is generated by the script located at codes/generate_table3.R.

table1_respondentsRCI

Each observation of this dataset represents one respondent. It contains 9135 observations and 9 variables.

  • respondent_id: unique number identifying respondents across the different surveys.
  • month: the month in which the respondent was surveyed.
  • riding_name: the name of the respondent's electoral riding.
  • riding_id: the id of the respondent's electoral riding. Each riding has its own numbered id.
  • rci_CAQ: the respondent's RCI score for the CAQ, which falls within a range of -1 to 1.
  • rci_PLQ: the respondent's RCI score for the PLQ, which falls within a range of -1 to 1.
  • rci_QS: the respondent's RCI score for the QS, which falls within a range of -1 to 1.
  • rci_PQ: the respondent's RCI score for the PQ, which falls within a range of -1 to 1.
  • rci_PCQ: the respondent's RCI score for the PCQ, which falls within a range of -1 to 1.
  • voteInt_CAQ: vote intent of the respondent for the CAQ. 1 if the respondent indicated the intent to vote for the CAQ, 0 for another party.
  • voteInt_PLQ: vote intent of the respondent for the PLQ. 1 if the respondent indicated the intent to vote for the PLQ, 0 for another party.
  • voteInt_QS: vote intent of the respondent for QS. 1 if the respondent indicated the intent to vote for the QS, 0 for another party.
  • voteInt_PQ: vote intent of the respondent for the PQ. 1 if the respondent indicated the intent to vote for the PQ, 0 for another party.
  • voteInt_PCQ: vote intent of the respondent for the PCQ. 1 if the respondent indicated the intent to vote for the PCQ, 0 for another party.

table2_duringCampaign

Each observation of this dataset represents a single day's Qc125.com prediction of a riding's vote share of a political party. It contains 52388 observations and 6 variables.

  • date: the date of the observation.
  • riding_name: the name of the respondent's electoral riding.
  • riding_id: the id of the respondent's electoral riding. Each riding has its own numbered id.
  • party: the political party associated to this prediction. Options are CAQ, PLQ, QS, PQ and PCQ.
  • pred: the predicted vote share of the party.
  • moes: the margin of error of this prediction (as reported by Qc125.com).

table3_aggregatedData

This dataset is generated by the file located at codes/generate_table3.R. Each observation of this dataset represents a riding with its vote fragility index (before the campaign) and its campaign volatility (during the campaign). It contains 125 observations and 4 variables.

  • riding_id: the numerical id of the riding.
  • riding_name: the name of the riding.
  • n_riding: number of respondents in the riding.
  • fragility_index: vote fragility of the riding before the campaign generated from survey data. From 0 - not fragile to 1 - fragile.
  • fragility_index_mrp: vote fragility of the riding before the campaign generated by MRP (in the mrp folder). From 0 - not fragile to 1 - fragile.
  • volatility: campaign volatility of the riding generated from Qc125.com data. From 0 - not volatile to 1 - volatile.