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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>Eir-Flux Research</title>
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<section class="content-section bg-white" id="publications">
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<h2 class="mb-5"><u>Related Publications</u></h2>
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<a href="https://rdcu.be/cUZ6w">
<h5>Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions</h5>
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<h6>Abstract</h6>
<p>
Global scenario modelling for climate stabilization lacks national resolution, particularly for the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector, impeding effective national climate policymaking. We generate 850 randomized scenarios of activity combinations for Ireland’s AFOLU sector in the year 2050 and evaluate associated greenhouse gas fluxes to the year 2100. Using a GWP100 ‘net-zero’ greenhouse gas definition, 146 scenarios achieve AFOLU climate neutrality and 38 contribute to national neutrality (a substantial AFOLU sink) by 2050. Just one scenario contributes to national climate neutrality to 2100, reflecting future declines in CO2 removals by new forests (excluding potential downstream mitigation). In the absence of technical solutions to dramatically reduce the emissions intensity of bovine production, national milk and beef output will need to be substantially curtailed to achieve net-zero emissions. Active CO2 removal on destocked land, via organic soil rewetting and ambitious afforestation, could moderate output declines in milk and beef production, reducing international carbon leakage risks.
</p>
<p><h6>How to cite: </h6>Duffy, C., Prudhomme, R., Duffy, B. et al. Randomized national land management strategies for net-zero emissions. Nat Sustain (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00946-0.</p>
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<img src="assets/img/infographic_final.png" class="img-fluid">
<p><h6>Figure: </h6>A summary of average herd reduction, annual afforestation rates and rewetted area for "net-zero" scenario groups.</p>
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<a href="https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2239/2022/">
<h5>GOBLIN version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting</h5>
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<h6>Abstract</h6>
<p>
The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.
</p>
<p><h6>How to cite: </h6>Duffy, C., Prudhomme, R., Duffy, B., Gibbons, J., O'Donoghue, C., Ryan, M., and Styles, D.: GOBLIN version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2239–2264, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2239-2022, 2022.</p>
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<img src="assets/img/figure1.png" class="img-fluid">
<p><h6>Figure: </h6>Key emission sources and sinks critical to the determination of “climate neutrality” in Ireland's AFOLU sector accounted for in GOBLIN (white), alongside linked upstream and downstream sources and sinks to be included in subsequent life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling to determine wider climate mitigation efficacy.</p>
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<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479720304576">
<h5>Afforestation: Replacing livestock emissions with carbon sequestration</h5>
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<h6>Abstract</h6>
<p>
In Ireland, agriculture accounts for 33% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Ireland faces significant challenges in terms of emissions reduction and is well off course in terms of meeting binding European Union targets. Flexibility mechanisms will allow Ireland to offset 5.6% of its commitment via sequestration in biomass and soils and land use change. Agricultural emissions in Ireland are largely driven by livestock production. As such, the purpose of this research is to estimate the net GHG emission benefit resulting from a land use change with forest replacing livestock systems (dairy, beef cattle and sheep). We estimate the total carbon sequestration in biomass and harvested wood products, along with the total emissions avoided from each livestock system on a per hectare basis. In addition, the paper compares the social cost of carbon to the average income per hectare of each livestock system. Finally, a hypothetical national planting scenario is modelled using plausible planting rates. Results indicate that the greatest carbon benefit is achieved when forest replaces dairy production. This is due to high emissions per hectare from dairy systems, and greater sequestration potential in higher-yielding forests planted on better quality soils associated with dairy production. The inclusion of harvested wood products in subsequent rotations has the potential to enhance GHG mitigation and offset terrestrial carbon loss. A hypothetical national planting scenario, afforesting 100,000 ha substituting dairy, beef cattle and sheep livestock systems could abate 13.91 Mt CO2e after 10 years, and 150.14 Mt CO2e (unthinned plantations) or 125.89 Mt CO2e (thinned plantations) over the course of the rotation. These results highlight the critical role for forest land use change in meeting the urgent need to tackle rising agricultural emissions.
</p>
<p><h6>How to cite: </h6>Duffy, C.,O'Donoghue, C.,Ryan, M., Styles, D., and Spillane,C.: Afforestation: Replacing livestock emissions with carbon sequestration,Journal of Environmental Management,Volume 264,2020,110523,ISSN 0301-4797,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110523.</p>
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<img src="assets/img/figure2.png" class="img-fluid">
<p><h6>Figure: </h6>A schematic of the elements contributing to total CO2e abatement and loss. Solid lines represent CO2e abatement, while dotted lines represent CO2e losses.</p>
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