Each year more than 700 thousand people become U.S. citizens in a process called naturalization.
The number of people who pledge allegiance to these United States has been relatively stable over the years.
What is interesting however is the number of individuals rolling back their commitment to this country.
The data is published (somewhat) regularly in the U.S. Federal Register and each report goes as far as disclosing the names of expatriating individuals. The latest report published on May 10, 2017, for example, contains the last, first, and middle names of 1,313 individuals losing United States citizenship with respect to whom the government received information during the quarter ending March 31, 2017.
The IRS legal rationale of disclosing the names under the auspices of HIPPA which is supposed to protect patient privacy seems rather strange to an uninitiated observer but it's of out of scope for this article.
After removing the duplicate names which are most likely associated with different SSNs in the backend systems and by calculating a rolling yearly total to smooth out the variance, the trend becomes more apparent. More people are leaving the U.S. than in previous years.
SELECT date_format(time+365*24*60*60000, 'yyyy') AS 'Year',
count(value) AS 'Total'
FROM 'us-expatriate-counter'
WHERE entity = 'us.irs' AND datetime < '2017-04-01T00:00:00Z'
GROUP BY period(1 YEAR, END_TIME)
ORDER BY time
Year | Total | Change, % |
---|---|---|
2000 | 184 | - |
2001 | 470 | 155 |
2002 | 373 | -21 |
2003 | 507 | 36 |
2004 | 545 | 7 |
2005 | 645 | 18 |
2006 | 724 | 12 |
2007 | 285 | -61 |
2008 | 485 | 70 |
2009 | 174 | -64 |
2010 | 853 | 390 |
2011 | 1850 | 117 |
2012 | 1742 | -6 |
2013 | 1151 | -34 |
2014 | 3319 | 188 |
2015 | 3743 | 13 |
2016 | 4096 | 9 |
2017 | 5557 | 36 |
12-month rolling sum. For example, Year 2017 covers the period between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2017.
Given that it usually takes several months between the application is submitted and the name appearing on the list, it's not clear if there is any effect of the latest political season on the expatriation numbers.
The next report is due in early August. Stay tuned!
SELECT date_format(time+90*24*60*60000, 'yyyy-MMM') AS 'Date',
count(value) AS 'Quarterly Total'
FROM 'us-expatriate-counter'
WHERE entity = 'us.irs' AND datetime >= '2010-01-01T00:00:00Z'
GROUP BY period(1 QUARTER)
ORDER BY time
Date | Quarterly Total |
---|---|
2010-Apr | 179 |
2010-Jun | 557 |
2010-Sep | 397 |
2010-Dec | 398 |
2011-Apr | 498 |
2011-Jun | 519 |
2011-Sep | 403 |
2011-Dec | 360 |
2012-Mar | 460 |
2012-Jun | 189 |
2012-Sep | 238 |
2012-Dec | 45 |
2013-Apr | 679 |
2013-Jun | 1129 |
2013-Sep | 560 |
2013-Dec | 631 |
2014-Apr | 999 |
2014-Jun | 576 |
2014-Sep | 775 |
2014-Dec | 1061 |
2015-Apr | 1331 |
2015-Jun | 459 |
2015-Sep | 1426 |
2015-Dec | 1057 |
2016-Mar | 1154 |
2016-Jun | 506 |
2016-Sep | 1379 |
2016-Dec | 2359 |
2017-Apr | 1313 |
- Title Image: Benedict Arnold's Oath of Allegiance, May 30, 1778
- Axibase Time Series Database SQL Documentation
- Federal Register
- Wikipedia: Quarterly Publication of Individuals Who Have Chosen to Expatriate