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@article{Buonaccorsi1987,
author = {Buonaccorsi, John P.},
doi = {10.2307/2685108},
journal = {The American Statistician},
number = {3},
pages = {215--218},
title = {{A Note on Confidence Intervals for Proportions in Finite Populations}},
volume = {41},
year = {1987}
}
@article{Sahai1995,
author = {Sahai, H and Khurshid, A},
doi = {10.1016/0010-4825(95)98883-f},
journal = {Comput Biol Med.},
number = {1},
pages = {35--38},
title = {{A note on confidence intervals for the hypergeometric parameter in analyzing biomedical data}},
volume = {25},
year = {1995}
}
@article{Kammann2017,
author = {Kammann, Claudia and Ippolito, Jim and Hagemann, Nikolas and Borchard, Nils and Cayuela, Maria Luz and Estavillo, Jos{\'{e}} M and Fuertes-Mendizabal, Teresa and Jeffery, Simon and Kern, J{\"{u}}rgen and Novak, Jeff and Rasse, Daniel and Saarnio, Sanna and Schmidt, Hans-Peter and Spokas, Kurt and Wrage-M{\"{o}}nnig, Nicole},
doi = {10.3846/16486897.2017.1319375},
issn = {1648-6897, 1822-4199},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management},
language = {en},
month = {jul},
number = {2},
pages = {114--139},
title = {{Biochar as a tool to reduce the agricultural greenhouse-gas burden – knowns, unknowns and future research needs}},
volume = {25},
year = {2017}
}
@article{VonStechow2016a,
abstract = {The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new international climate treaty could put 2015 into the history books as a defining year for setting human development on a more sustainable pathway. The global climate policy and SDG agendas are highly interconnected: the way that the climate problem is addressed strongly affects the prospects of meeting numerous other SDGs and vice versa. Drawing on existing scenario results from a recent energy-economy-climate model inter-comparison project, this letter analyses these synergies and (risk) trade-offs of alternative 2 °C pathways across indicators relevant for energy-related SDGs and sustainable energy objectives. We find that limiting the availability of key mitigation technologies yields some co-benefits and decreases risks specific to these technologies but greatly increases many others. Fewer synergies and substantial trade-offs across SDGs are locked into the system for weak short-term climate policies that are broadly in line with current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), particularly when combined with constraints on technologies. Lowering energy demand growth is key to managing these trade-offs and creating synergies across multiple energy-related SD dimensions. We argue that SD considerations are central for choosing socially acceptable 2 °C pathways: the prospects of meeting other SDGs need not dwindle and can even be enhanced for some goals if appropriate climate policy choices are made. Progress on the climate policy and SDG agendas should therefore be tracked within a unified framework.},
author = {{Von Stechow}, Christoph and Minx, Jan C. and Riahi, Keywan and Jewell, Jessica and McCollum, David L. and Callaghan, Max W. and Bertram, Christoph and Luderer, Gunnar and Baiocchi, Giovanni},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034022},
isbn = {1748-9326},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {climate change mitigation,climate policy,co-benefits,energy efficiency,mitigation risks,risk management,sustainable development},
title = {{2°C and SDGs: United they stand, divided they fall?}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Rogelj2018a,
abstract = {The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.},
author = {Rogelj, Joeri and Popp, Alexander and Calvin, Katherine V. and Luderer, Gunnar and Emmerling, Johannes and Gernaat, David and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Strefler, Jessica and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Marangoni, Giacomo and Krey, Volker and Kriegler, Elmar and Riahi, Keywan and {Van Vuuren}, Detlef P. and Doelman, Jonathan and Drouet, Laurent and Edmonds, Jae and Fricko, Oliver and Harmsen, Mathijs and Havl{\'{i}}k, Petr and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and Stehfest, Elke and Tavoni, Massimo},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3},
isbn = {1758-6798},
issn = {17586798},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
title = {{Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °c}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{powlson2014limited,
author = {Powlson, David S and Stirling, Clare M and Jat, M L and Gerard, Bruno G and Palm, Cheryl A and Sanchez, Pedro A and Cassman, Kenneth G},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = {8},
pages = {678},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
title = {{Limited potential of no-till agriculture for climate change mitigation}},
volume = {4},
year = {2014}
}
@article{McGlashan2012,
author = {McGlashan, Niall and Shah, Nilay and Caldecott, Ben and Workman, Mark},
doi = {10.1016/j.psep.2012.10.004},
issn = {09575820},
journal = {Process Safety and Environmental Protection},
keywords = {Overview NETs},
mendeley-tags = {Overview NETs},
month = {nov},
number = {6},
pages = {501--510},
publisher = {Institution of Chemical Engineers},
title = {{High-level techno-economic assessment of negative emissions technologies}},
volume = {90},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Edenhofer2015a,
abstract = {How can assessments of environmental policy issues be policy-relevant without being policy-prescriptive? The predominant technocratic and decisionist responses to this question misleadingly assume that value-neutral scientific recommendations for public policy means, or even objectives, are possible. On the other end of the spectrum, the literature on democratic and pragmatic models of expertise in policy often does not satisfactorily explain what researchers can contribute to public discourses surrounding disputed, value-laden policy objectives and means. Building on John Dewey's philosophy, this article develops the “pragmatic-enlightened model” (PEM) of assessment making, which refines the existing pragmatic models. It is used to some extent by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. According to the PEM's policy assessment methodology, policy objectives and their means can only be evaluated in light of the practical consequences of the means. Learning about the secondary effects, side effects and synergies of the best means may require a revaluation of the policy objectives, for instance, regarding the use of bioenergy for climate mitigation. Following the PEM, assessments would—based on a thorough problem analysis—explore alternative policy pathways, including their diverse practical consequences, overlaps and trade-offs, in cooperation with stakeholders. Such an arduous interdisciplinary cartography of multiple objectives, multi-functional policy means and the broad range of their quantitative and qualitative practical consequences may face considerable practical challenges and uncertainty. Yet, it could make assessments more policy-relevant and less prescriptive, and could effectively support a learning process about the political solution space.},
author = {Edenhofer, Ottmar and Kowarsch, Martin},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.03.017},
issn = {1462-9011},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Policy},
keywords = {Environmental assessment Public policy analysis Me},
pages = {56--64},
title = {{Cartography of pathways: A new model for environmental policy assessments}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901115000660},
volume = {51},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Azar2010a,
abstract = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC 1992) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability ofmeeting CO2 concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologiese.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO2).},
author = {Azar, Christian and Lindgren, Kristian and Obersteiner, Michael and Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and den Elzen, K. Michel G J and M{\"{o}}llersten, Kenneth and Larson, Eric D.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9832-7},
isbn = {0165-0009},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1},
pages = {195--202},
title = {{The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)}},
volume = {100},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Rihoux2006,
abstract = {During the past two decades, a set of systematic comparative case analysis techniques has been developing at a steady pace. During the last few years especially, the main initial technique, qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), has been complemented by other related methods and techniques. The purpose of this article is to critically assess some main recent developments in this field. QCA and connected methods can be considered at two levels: as a research strategy and as a set of concrete techniques. The author first argues that such a strategy displays some decisive advantages in social science research, especially in small- and inter- mediate-Nresearch designs. Second, QCA as well as three other related techniques, namely multi-value QCA (MVQCA), fuzzy sets and MSDO/MDSO, are presented in brief, and some current debates with regard to these techniques are also summar- ized. In the third section, the article surveys recent contributions and ongoing efforts that have provided some advances in the application of these techniques, around five key issues: case selection and model specification; measurement, dichotomization and linkage with theory; contradictions and non-observed cases; the time and process dimension; and the confrontation or combination with other methods. Finally, the article discuss the potential for further development of these methods in social science research broadly defined},
author = {Rihoux, B.},
doi = {10.1177/0268580906067836},
isbn = {0268-5809},
issn = {0268-5809},
journal = {International Sociology},
title = {{Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Related Systematic Comparative Methods: Recent Advances and Remaining Challenges for Social Science Research}},
year = {2006}
}
@misc{Berrang-Ford2015a,
abstract = {Recent controversy has led to calls for increased standardization and transparency in the methods used to synthesize climate change research. Though these debates have focused largely on the biophysical dimen- sions of climate change, human dimensions research is equally in need of improved methodological approaches for research synthesis. Systematic review approaches, and more recently realist review methods, have been used within the health sciences for decades to guide research synthesis. Despite this, penetration of these approaches into the social and environmental sciences has been limited. Here, we present an analysis of approaches for systematic review and research synthesis and examine their applica- bility in an adaptation context. Customized review frame- works informed by systematic approaches to research synthesis provide a conceptually appropriate and practical opportunity for increasing methodological transparency and rigor in synthesizing and tracking adaptation research. This review highlights innovative applications of system- atic approaches, with a focus on the unique challenges of integrating multiple data sources and formats in reviewing climate change adaptation policy and practice. We present guidelines, key considerations, and recommendations for systematic review in the social sciences in general and adaptation research in particular. We conclude by calling for increased conceptual and methodological development of systematic review approaches to address the methodo- logical challenges of synthesizing and tracking adaptation to climate change.},
author = {Berrang-Ford, Lea and Pearce, Tristan and Ford, James D.},
booktitle = {Regional Environmental Change},
doi = {10.1007/s10113-014-0708-7},
isbn = {1011301407},
issn = {1436378X},
keywords = {Adaptation,Climate change,Human dimensions of climate change,Realist review,Research synthesis,Social sciences,Systematic review,Vulnerability},
title = {{Systematic review approaches for climate change adaptation research}},
year = {2015}
}
@unpublished{Minx2017e,
abstract = {Meeting the climate goals of the Paris Agreement requires mitigation strategies that involve CO2 removal strategies, yet the scale of their deployment is heavily debated. Simple metrics that quantify the dependence on CO2 removal can clear our view on available policy options.},
annote = {From Duplicate 1 (The fast-growing dependence on negative emissions - Minx, Jan C.; Creutzig, F.; Luderer, G.; Fuss, S.; Edenhofer, O.)
From Duplicate 2 (The fast-growing dependence on negative emissions - Minx, Jan C.; Creutzig, F.; Luderer, G.; Fuss, S.; Edenhofer, O.; Creutzig, F.; Fuss, S.; Edenhofer, O.)
From Duplicate 2 (A fast growing dependence on negative emissions technologies - Minx, Jan C.; Creutzig, F.; Luderer, G.; Fuss, S.; Edenhofer, O.; Creutzig, F.; Fuss, S.; Edenhofer, O.)
From Duplicate 2 (The fast-growing dependence on negative emissions technologies - Minx, Jan C.; Creutzig, F.; Luderer, G.; Fuss, S.; Edenhofer, O.; Creutzig, F.; Fuss, S.; Edenhofer, O.)
Confirm details},
author = {Minx, Jan C. and Luderer, G. and Creutzig, F. and Fuss, S. and Edenhofer, O. and Luderer, G. and Fuss, S. and Edenhofer, O.},
booktitle = {Nature Geoscience},
keywords = {Minx2017a},
mendeley-tags = {Minx2017a},
title = {{The fast-growing dependence on negative emissions}},
volume = {submitted},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Pawson2005,
abstract = {Evidence-based policy is a dominant theme in contemporary public services but the practical realities and challenges involved in using evidence in policy-making are formidable. Part of the problem is one of complexity. In health services and other public services, we are dealing with complex social interventions which act on complex social systems--things like league tables, performance measures, regulation and inspection, or funding reforms. These are not 'magic bullets' which will always hit their target, but programmes whose effects are crucially dependent on context and implementation. Traditional methods of review focus on measuring and reporting on programme effectiveness, often find that the evidence is mixed or conflicting, and provide little or no clue as to why the intervention worked or did not work when applied in different contexts or circumstances, deployed by different stakeholders, or used for different purposes. This paper offers a model of research synthesis which is designed to work with complex social interventions or programmes, and which is based on the emerging 'realist' approach to evaluation. It provides an explanatory analysis aimed at discerning what works for whom, in what circumstances, in what respects and how. The first step is to make explicit the programme theory (or theories)--the underlying assumptions about how an intervention is meant to work and what impacts it is expected to have. We then look for empirical evidence to populate this theoretical framework, supporting, contradicting or modifying the programme theories as it goes. The results of the review combine theoretical understanding and empirical evidence, and focus on explaining the relationship between the context in which the intervention is applied, the mechanisms by which it works and the outcomes which are produced. The aim is to enable decision-makers to reach a deeper understanding of the intervention and how it can be made to work most effectively. Realist review does not provide simple answers to complex questions. It will not tell policy-makers or managers whether something works or not, but will provide the policy and practice community with the kind of rich, detailed and highly practical understanding of complex social interventions which is likely to be of much more use to them when planning and implementing programmes at a national, regional or local level.},
author = {Pawson, Ray and Greenhalgh, Trisha and Harvey, Gill and Walshe, Kieran},
doi = {10.1258/1355819054308530},
isbn = {1355-8196 (Print)$\backslash$n1355-8196 (Linking)},
issn = {1355-8196},
journal = {Journal of health services research {\&} policy},
keywords = {Evaluation Studies as Topic,Evidence-Based Medicine,Great Britain,Models,Physician's Practice Patterns,Policy Making,State Medicine,Theoretical},
pmid = {16053581},
title = {{Realist review--a new method of systematic review designed for complex policy interventions.}},
year = {2005}
}
@book{UNEP2017,
abstract = {Current global emissions are already considerably higher than the emissions level consistent with the 2 2020 and are still growing. The estimated emissions gap in 2020 for a “likely” chance of being on track to stay below the 2 C target is 8 to 13 GtCO 2 o e (depending on how emission reduction pledges are implemented), as compared to 6 to 11 GtCO e in last years' Bridging the Emissions Gap Report. The gap is larger because of higher than expected economic growth and the inclusion of “double counting” of emission offsets in the calculations. To stay within the 2°C limit global emissions will have to peak before 2020 . Scenarios that meet the 2 o C limit show a maximum emission level in 2030 of 37 GtCO2e. Scenarios that meet the 2 o C limit have global emissions in 2050 roughly 40{\%} below 1990 emission levels and roughly 60{\%} below 2010 emission levels. The technical potential for reducing emissions by 2020 is estimated to be about 17 ± 3 GtCO 2 e, at marginal costs below US{\$} 50-100/ t CO 2 e reduced. This is enough to close the gap between BaU emissions and emissions that meet the 2°C or 1.5°C target.},
address = {Nairobi},
author = {{UN Environment}},
booktitle = {UN Environment},
doi = {ISBN 978-92-9253-062-4},
isbn = {978-92-807-3673-1},
issn = {1873-2518},
pages = {116},
pmid = {23510772},
publisher = {United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)},
title = {{The Emissions Gap Report 2017}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Sommer2014,
abstract = {When assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and its climate change (CC) mitigation potential at global scale, the dynamic nature of soil carbon storage and interventions to foster it should be taken into account. Firstly, adoption of SOC-sequestration measures will take time, and reasonably such schemes could only be implemented gradually at large-scale. Secondly, if soils are managed as carbon sinks, then SOC will increase only over a limited time, up to the point when a new SOC equilibrium is reached. This paper combines these two processes and predicts potential SOC sequestration dynamics in agricultural land at global scale and the corresponding CC mitigation potential. Assuming that global governments would agree on a worldwide effort to gradually change land use practices towards turning agricultural soils into carbon sinks starting 2014, the projected 87-year (2014-2100) global SOC sequestration potential of agricultural land ranged between 31 and 64 Gt. This is equal to 1.9-3.9{\%} of the SRES-A2 projected 87-year anthropogenic emissions. SOC sequestration would peak 2032-33, at that time reaching 4.3-8.9{\%} of the projected annual SRES-A2 emission. About 30 years later the sequestration rate would have reduced by half. Thus, SOC sequestration is not a C wedge that could contribute increasingly to mitigating CC. Rather, the mitigation potential is limited, contributing very little to solving the climate problem of the coming decades. However, we deliberately did not elaborate on the importance of maintaining or increasing SOC for sustaining soil health, agro-ecosystem functioning and productivity; an issue of global significance that deserves proper consideration irrespectively of any potential additional sequestration of SOC. ?? 2014 Elsevier Ltd.},
author = {Sommer, Rolf and Bossio, Deborah},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.017},
isbn = {0301-4797},
issn = {10958630},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
keywords = {C wedge,Carbon sequestration,SRES-A2},
pages = {83--87},
pmid = {24929498},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Dynamics and climate change mitigation potential of soil organic carbon sequestration}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.05.017},
volume = {144},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Fuss2018,
author = {Fuss, Sabine and Lamb, William F and Callaghan, Max W and Hilaire, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Creutzig, Felix and Amann, Thorben and Beringer, Tim and {de Oliveira Garcia}, Wagner and Hartmann, Jens and Khanna, Tarun and Luderer, Gunnar and Nemet, Gregory F and Rogelj, Joeri and Smith, Pete and Vicente, Juan Luis Vicente and Wilcox, Jennifer and {del Mar Zamora}, Maria and Minx, Jan C},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
title = {{Negative emissions - Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects}},
volume = {accepted},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Lamb2018b,
abstract = {Cities are key for achieving the 1.5 °C warming limit of the Paris Agreement. However, synthesizing policy insights from the urban literature is a challenge, due to its rapid growth, breadth of topics and relative lack of assessments so far. Here we introduce methods from computational linguistics to build a systematic overview of research on transport, buildings, waste management and urban form. We find that the epistemic core of the mitigation-focused urban literature is currently centered on urban form and emissions accounting, while extensive research into demand-side options remain overlooked, including congestion and parking polices, active travel, and waste management. In the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C, and for meeting the target itself, all such city-scale opportunities need to be examined.},
author = {Lamb, William F. and Callaghan, Max W. and Creutzig, Felix and Khosla, Radhika and Minx, Jan C.},
booktitle = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},
doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2018.02.008},
issn = {18773435},
title = {{The literature landscape on 1.5 °C climate change and cities}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{VanVuuren2011,
abstract = {The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC's 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2°C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40–80{\%} below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single “law” that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy.},
author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
pages = {793--801},
title = {{The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-0004-6},
volume = {104},
year = {2011}
}
@techreport{Caldecott2015,
abstract = {The Stranded Assets Programme at the University of Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment was established in 2012 to understand environment-related risks driving asset stranding in different sectors and systemically. We research the materiality of environment-related risks over time, how different risks might be interrelated, and the potential impacts of stranded assets on investors, businesses, regulators, and policymakers. We also work with partners to develop strategies to manage the consequences of environment-related risks and stranded assets.},
author = {Caldecott, B. and Lomax, G. and Workman, M. and {Caldecott, B.; Lomax, G.; Workman}, M.},
institution = {Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.},
pages = {37},
title = {{Stranded Carbon Assets and Negative Emissions Technologies}},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Johnson2014,
author = {Johnson, Nils and Parker, Nathan and Ogden, Joan},
doi = {10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.712},
issn = {18766102},
journal = {Energy Procedia},
pages = {6770--6791},
title = {{How negative can biofuels with CCS take us and at what cost? Refining the economic potential of biofuel production with CCS using spatially-explicit modeling}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1876610214025272},
volume = {63},
year = {2014}
}
@article{lal2004soil,
author = {Lal, Rattan},
journal = {science},
number = {5677},
pages = {1623--1627},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security}},
volume = {304},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Azar2006c,
abstract = {Abstract The capture and storage of CO2 from combustion of fossil fuels is gaining attraction as a means to deal with climate change. CO2 emissions from biomass conversion processes can also be captured. If that is done, biomass energy with CO2 capture and storage (BECS) would become a technology that removes CO2 from the atmosphere and at the same time deliver CO2-neutral energy carriers (heat, electricity or hydrogen) to society. Here we present estimates of the costs and conversion efficiency of electricity, hydrogen and heat generation from fossil fuels and biomass with CO2 capture and storage. We then insert these technology characteristics into a global energy and transportation model (GET 5.0), and calculate costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentration at 350 and 450 ppm. We find that carbon capture and storage technologies applied to fossil fuels have the potential to reduce the cost of meeting the 350 ppm stabilisation targets by 50{\%} compared to a case where these technologies are not available and by 80{\%} when BECS is allowed. For the 450 ppm scenario, the reduction in costs is 40 and 42{\%}, respectively. Thus, the difference in costs between cases where BECS technologies are allowed and where they are not is marginal for the 450 ppm stabilization target. It is for very low stabilization targets that negative emissions become warranted, and this makes BECS more valuable than in cases with higher stabilization targets. Systematic and stochastic sensitivity analysis is performed. Finally, BECS opens up the possibility to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. But this option should not be seen as an argument in favour of doing nothing about the climate problem now and then switching on this technology if climate change turns out to be a significant problem. It is not likely that BECS can be initiated sufficiently rapidly at a sufficient scale to follow this path to avoiding abrupt and serious climate changes if that would happen.},
author = {Azar, Christian and Lindgren, Kristian and Larson, Eric and M{\"{o}}llersten, Kenneth},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-3484-7},
isbn = {0165-0009$\backslash$r1573-1480},
issn = {01650009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1-3},
pages = {47--79},
title = {{Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass - Costs and potential role in stabilizing the atmosphere}},
volume = {74},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Anderson2015,
author = {Anderson, Kevin},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2559},
issn = {1752-0894},
journal = {Nature Geosci},
pages = {898--900},
title = {{Duality in climate science}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2559},
volume = {8},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Pehnt2009,
author = {Pehnt, Martin and Henkel, Johannes},
doi = {10.1016/J.IJGGC.2008.07.001},
issn = {1750-5836},
journal = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},
month = {jan},
number = {1},
pages = {49--66},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{Life cycle assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage from lignite power plants}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583608000650},
volume = {3},
year = {2009}
}
@techreport{Rickels2011,
author = {Rickels, W. and Klepper, G. and Dovern, J. and Betz, G. and Brachatzek, N. and Cacean, S. and G{\"{u}}ssow, K. and Heintzenberg, J. and Hiller, S. and Hoose, C. and Leisner, T. and Oschlies, A. and Platt, U. and Proel{\ss}, A. and Renn, O. and Sch{\"{a}}fer, S. and M., Z{\"{u}}rn},
institution = {Kiel Earth Institute},
title = {{Gezielte Eingriffe in das Klima? Eine Bestandsaufnahme der Debatte zu Climate Engineering}},
year = {2011}
}
@article{ONeill2016,
abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land-use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modelling, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the next IPCC assessment. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted scientific questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land-use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with climate model projections expected to be available within the 2018{\&}ndash;2020 time frame.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Tebaldi, Claudia and {Van Vuuren}, Detlef P. and Eyring, Veronika and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Hurtt, George and Knutti, Reto and Kriegler, Elmar and Lamarque, Jean Francois and Lowe, Jason and Meehl, Gerald A. and Moss, Richard and Riahi, Keywan and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016},
isbn = {1991-959X},
issn = {19919603},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
title = {{The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Farrell2016,
abstract = {Drawing on large-scale computational data and methods, this research demonstrates how polarization efforts are influenced by a patterned network of political and financial actors. These dynamics, which have been notoriously difficult to quantify, are illustrated here with a computational analysis of climate change politics in the United States. The comprehensive data include all individual and organizational actors in the climate change countermovement (164 organizations), as well as all written and verbal texts produced by this network between 1993–2013 (40,785 texts, more than 39 million words). Two main findings emerge. First, that organizations with corporate funding were more likely to have written and disseminated texts meant to polarize the climate change issue. Second, and more importantly, that corporate funding influences the actual thematic content of these polarization efforts, and the discursive prevalence of that thematic content over time. These findings provide new, and comprehensive, confirmation of dynamics long thought to be at the root of climate change politics and discourse. Beyond the specifics of climate change, this paper has important implications for understanding ideological polarization more generally, and the increasing role of private funding in determining why certain polarizing themes are created and amplified. Lastly, the paper suggests that future studies build on the novel approach taken here that integrates large-scale textual analysis with social networks. },
author = {Farrell, Justin},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1509433112},
isbn = {1509433112},
issn = {0027-8424},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
pmid = {26598653},
title = {{Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change}},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Rose2014,
abstract = {This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 {\%} per annum reaching 1 to 35 {\%} of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 {\%} of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 {\%} of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 {\%} of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.},
author = {Rose, Steven K and Kriegler, Elmar and Bibas, Ruben and Calvin, Katherine and Popp, Alexander and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Weyant, John},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0965-3},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
pages = {477--493},
title = {{Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0965-3},
volume = {123},
year = {2014}
}
@article{House2007,
abstract = {We describe an approach to CO2 capture and storage from the atmosphere that involves enhancing the solubility of CO2 in the ocean by a process equivalent to the natural silicate weathering reaction. HCl is electrochemically removed from the ocean and neutralized through reaction with silicate rocks. The increase in ocean alkalinity resulting from the removal of HCl causes atmospheric CO2 to dissolve into the ocean where it will be stored primarily as HCO3− without further acidifying the ocean. On timescales of hundreds of years or longer, some of the additional alkalinity will likely lead to precipitation or enhanced preservation of CaCO3, resulting in the permanent storage of the associated carbon, and the return of an equal amount of carbon to the atmosphere. Whereas the natural silicate weathering process is effected primarily by carbonic acid, the engineered process accelerates the weathering kinetics to industrial rates by replacing this weak acid with HCl. In the thermodynamic limit—and with the app...},
author = {House, Kurt Zenz and House, Christopher H. and Schrag, Daniel P. and Aziz, Michael J.},
doi = {10.1021/es0701816},
isbn = {0013-936x},
issn = {0013-936X},
journal = {Environmental Science {\&} Technology},
keywords = {carbonate dissolution,cells,co2,electrolysis,emissions,fuel,ocean,performance,sea-water,storage},
language = {English},
month = {dec},
number = {24},
pages = {8464--8470},
publisher = { American Chemical Society},
title = {{Electrochemical acceleration of chemical weathering as an energetically feasible approach to mitigating anthropogenic climate change}},
url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es0701816},
volume = {41},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Hangx2009,
author = {Hangx, Suzanne J T and Spiers, Christopher J},
chapter = {757},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijggc.2009.07.001},
isbn = {17505836},
journal = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},
number = {6},
pages = {757--767},
title = {{Coastal spreading of olivine to control atmospheric CO2 concentrations: A critical analysis of viability}},
volume = {3},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Popp2011,
author = {Popp, Alexander and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Klein, David and Bauer, Nico and Krause, Michael and Beringer, Tim and Gerten, Dieter and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034017},
issn = {1748-9326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
month = {jul},
number = {3},
pages = {034017},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
title = {{The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system}},
url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/6/i=3/a=034017?key=crossref.a2656c08649c5f8b7418b37f3dd063a4},
volume = {6},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Cortes-Ramirez2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018 The Author(s). Background: Evidence of the association of coal mining with health outcomes such as increased mortality and morbidity in the general population has been provided by epidemiological studies in the last 25 years. Given the diverse sources of data included to investigate different health outcomes in the exposed populations, the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) can be used as a single classification standard to compare the findings of studies conducted in different socioeconomic and geographic contexts. The ICD classifies diagnoses of diseases and other disorders as codes organized by categories and chapters. Objectives: Identify the ICD codes found in studies of morbidity and/or mortality in populations resident or in proximity of coal mining and assess the methods of these studies conducting a systematic review. Methods: A systematic database search of PubMed, EMBASE and Scopus following the PRISMA protocol was conducted to assess epidemiological studies from 1990 to 2016. The health outcomes were mapped to ICD codes and classified by studies of morbidity and/or mortality, and the categories and chapters of the ICD. Results: Twenty-eight epidemiological studies with ecological design from the USA, Europe and China were included. The exposed populations had increased risk of mortality and/or morbidity by 78 ICD diagnosis categories and 9 groups of ICD categories in 10 chapters of the ICD: Neoplasms, diseases of the circulatory, respiratory and genitourinary systems, metabolic diseases, diseases of the eye and the skin, perinatal conditions, congenital and chromosomal abnormalities, and external causes of morbidity. Exposed populations had non-increased risk of 9 ICD diagnosis categories of diseases of the genitourinary system, and prostate cancer. Conclusions: There is consistent evidence of the association of coal mining with a wide spectrum of diseases in populations resident or in proximity of the mining activities. The methods of the studies included in this review can be integrated with individual-level and longitudinal studies to provide further evidence of the exposure pathways linked to increased risk in the exposed populations.},
author = {Cortes-Ramirez, Javier and Naish, Suchithra and Sly, Peter D. and Jagals, Paul},
doi = {10.1186/s12889-018-5505-7},
issn = {14712458},
journal = {BMC Public Health},
keywords = {Coal mining,Ecological studies,Environmental health,General population,International classification of diseases,Morbidity,Mortality,Systematic review},
pmid = {29890962},
title = {{Mortality and morbidity in populations in the vicinity of coal mining: A systematic review}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{TenBerge2012,
author = {ten Berge, H F and van der Meer, H G and Steenhuizen, J W and Goedhart, P W and Knops, P and Verhagen, J},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0042098},
edition = {2012/08/23},
isbn = {1932-6203 (Electronic)1932-6203 (Linking)},
journal = {PLoS One},
keywords = {Biological Availability,Biological Transport/drug effects,Biomass,Carbon Dioxide/chemistry/isolation {\&} purification,Crops, Agricultural/chemistry,Iron Compounds/*chemistry/*pharmacology,Lolium/drug effects/*growth {\&} development/*metabol,Magnesium Compounds/*chemistry/*pharmacology,Magnesium/analysis/metabolism/pharmacokinetics,Nickel/pharmacokinetics,Powders,Silicates/*chemistry/*pharmacology,Silicon/pharmacokinetics,Soil/*chemistry,Water/analysis},
number = {8},
pages = {e42098},
pmid = {22912685},
title = {{Olivine weathering in soil, and its effects on growth and nutrient uptake in Ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.): a pot experiment}},
url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22912685},
volume = {7},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Riahi2017,
author = {Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and O'Neill, Brian C and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and Kc, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and {Da Silva}, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP Climate change R},
pages = {153--168},
title = {{The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300681},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@misc{Haddaway2018,
abstract = {Literature reviews can help to inform decision-making, yet they may be subject to fatal bias if not conducted rigorously as ‘systematic reviews'. Reporting standards help authors to provide sufficient methodological detail to allow verification and replication, clarifying when key steps, such as critical appraisal, have been omitted.},
author = {Haddaway, Neal Robert and Macura, Biljana},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0180-3},
file = {:home/max/Documents/library/s41558-018-0180-3.pdf:pdf},
issn = {17586798},
title = {{The role of reporting standards in producing robust literature reviews}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{liao2015increase,
author = {Liao, Y and Wu, W L and Meng, F Q and Smith, P and Lal, R},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
number = {5},
pages = {1403},
publisher = {Copernicus GmbH},
title = {{Increase in soil organic carbon by agricultural intensification in northern China}},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Gasser2015,
author = {Gasser, T and Guivarch, C and Tachiiri, K and Jones, C D and Ciais, P},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms8958 https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8958#supplementary-information},
pages = {7958},
title = {{Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8958},
volume = {6},
year = {2015}
}
@book{GEA2012,
address = {Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria},
author = {GEA},
isbn = {9781 10700 5198 hardback 9780 52118 2935 paperback},
title = {{Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future}},
url = {http://www.globalenergyassessment.org},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Geden2015,
author = {Geden, Oliver},
doi = {10.1038/521027a},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {27--28},
title = {{Climate advisers must maintain integrity}},
volume = {521},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Hartmann2013,
author = {Hartmann, Jens and West, A Joshua and Renforth, Phil and K{\"{o}}hler, Peter and {De La Rocha}, Christina L and Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter A and D{\"{u}}rr, Hans H and Scheffran, J{\"{u}}rgen},
doi = {10.1002/rog.20004},
isbn = {1944-9208},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
keywords = {carbon,climate change,enhanced weathering,geoengineering,global biogeochemical cycles,silicate},
number = {2},
pages = {113--149},
title = {{Enhanced chemical weathering as a geoengineering strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide, supply nutrients, and mitigate ocean acidification}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/rog.20004 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/rog.20004/asset/rog20004.pdf?v=1{\&}t=hpe63h53{\&}s=77211c3d1dc3f0da26dbe7555caf6ae75924b61a},
volume = {51},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Keith2006,
abstract = {It is physically possible to capture CO2 directly from the air and immobilize it in geological structures. Air capture differs from conventional mitigation in three key aspects. First, it removes emissions from any part of the economy with equal ease or difficulty, so its cost provides an absolute cap on the cost of mitigation. Second, it permits reduction in concentrations faster than the natural carbon cycle: the effects of irreversibility are thus partly alleviated. Third, because it is weakly coupled to existing energy infrastructure, air capture may offer stronger economies of scale and smaller adjustment costs than the more conventional mitigation technologies.},
author = {Keith, David W and Ha-Duong, Minh and Stolaroff, Joshuah K},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-9026-x LB - Keith2006},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
pages = {17--45},
title = {{Climate Strategy with Co2 Capture from the Air}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9026-x},
volume = {74},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Sutherland2018,
author = {Sutherland, William J and Wordley, Claire F R},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {364--365},
title = {{A fresh approach to evidence synthesis}},
volume = {558},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Rogelj2013a,
annote = {10.1038/nature11787},
author = {Rogelj, Joeri and McCollum, David L and Reisinger, Andy and Meinshausen, Malte and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v493/n7430/abs/nature11787.html#supplementary-information},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
pages = {79--83},
title = {{Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature11787},
volume = {493},
year = {2013}
}
@incollection{Edmonds2007,
author = {Edmonds, James A. and Dooley, James J. and Kim, Son H. and Friedman, S. Julio and Wise, Marshall A.},
booktitle = {Human-Induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment},
chapter = {16},
editor = {Echlesinger, Michael E. and Kheshgi, Haroon S. and Smith, Joel and Chesnaye, F. De La and Reilly, John M. and Wilson, Tom and Kolstad, Charles},
month = {nov},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.},
title = {{TECHNOLOGY IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL: THE POTENTIAL REGIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CO2 STABILIZATION}},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/922185},
year = {2007}
}
@article{Riahi2015,
abstract = {This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Canc{\'{u}}n Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further “lock-in” of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become “a must” by 2030.},
author = {Riahi, Keywan and Kriegler, Elmar and Johnson, Nils and Bertram, Christoph and den Elzen, Michel and Eom, Jiyong and Schaeffer, Michiel and Edmonds, Jae and Isaac, Morna and Krey, Volker and Longden, Thomas and Luderer, Gunnar and M{\'{e}}jean, Aur{\'{e}}lie and McCollum, David L and Mima, Silvana and Turton, Hal and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Wada, Kenichi and Bosetti, Valentina and Capros, Pantelis and Criqui, Patrick and Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem and Kainuma, Mikiko and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016},
issn = {0040-1625},
journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},
keywords = {Copenhagen pledges Climate policy AMPERE Mitigatio},
pages = {8--23},
title = {{Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513002539},
volume = {90, Part A},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Erb2012,
abstract = {Enhancing global bioenergy production intimately relates to food production and food security. Here we present a scoping study that aims to explore the interlinkages of bioenergy and food production at the global scale. On the basis of a food-first approach, that is, calculating bioenergy potentials for 2050 only on land that is not needed for food or feed production, we consistently integrated existing mainstream scenarios of the development of food demand and agricultural technology for 2050 in a biophysical biomass-balance model. This balance model is built from highly detailed consistent biophysical databases and combines four different assumptions on yield developments and two on cropland expansion with four assumptions on diets and two on feeding efficiencies of livestock. Out of the possible 64 scenario combinations, 43 were found to be “feasible,” that is, biomass required to match the respective food, fiber, and feed demand could be met with the assumed cropland area and yields. For all feasible scenarios, three components of the global primary bioenergy potential were calculated: (1) bioenergy from crop residues, (2) bioenergy from dedicated crop plantations on land available within the agricultural scenarios, and (3) bioenergy available after assuming an intensification of high-quality grazing land and cultivation of the set-free area. Deforestation and bioenergy from forestry were not considered in this top-down approach. Global primary bioenergy potentials were found to range from 58 to 178 EJ/yr, resulting in a global biofuel potential of 9–53 EJ/yr. The range of results mainly depends on diets; richer diets were associated with lower bioenergy potentials and vice versa. The bioenergy potential grows with growing cropland yields and feeding efficiency. The lion's share of this bioenergy potential is found in developing countries, in particular Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. The realization of these potentials, however, will be associated with far-reaching transformations of the land systems in these regions, with a high risk of reducing food security. {\textcopyright} Cambridge University Press 2012.},
address = {Cambrdige, UK},
author = {Erb, Karl-Heinz K.-H. and Mayer, A. and Krausmann, F. and Lauk, C. and Plutzar, C. and Steinberger, J. and Haberl, H.},
booktitle = {Socioeconomic and Environmental Impacts of Biofuels: Evidence from Developing Nations},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9780511920899.005},
isbn = {1107009359},
pages = {27--52},
publisher = {Cambridge Unviersity Press},
title = {{The interrelations of future global bioenergy potentials, food demand, and agricultural technology}},
year = {2012}
}
@article{Hulme2016,
author = {Hulme, Mike},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2939},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
pages = {222--224},
title = {{1.5°C and climate research after the Paris Agreement}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2939},
volume = {6},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Sarmiento1991,
author = {Sarmiento, Jorge L and Orr, James C},
isbn = {1939-5590},
journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
number = {8},
pages = {1928--1950},
title = {{Three‐dimensional simulations of the impact of Southern Ocean nutrient depletion on atmospheric CO2 and ocean chemistry}},
volume = {36},
year = {1991}
}
@article{Morales-Florez2011,
author = {Morales-Florez, V and Santos, A and Lemus, A and Esquivias, L},
chapter = {132},
doi = {10.1016/j.cej.2010.10.039},
isbn = {1385-8947},
journal = {Chemical Engineering Journal},
keywords = {ca(oh)(2),carbon-dioxide,cement,co2,fixation,gas,magnesium,mechanisms,mineral sequestration,poalandite,silica,temperature,waste,weathering},
language = {English},
number = {1},
pages = {132--137},
title = {{Artificial weathering pools of calcium-rich industrial waste for CO2 sequestration}},
volume = {166},
year = {2011}
}
@article{Bertram2018,
abstract = {{\textcopyright} 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Meeting the 1.5 °C goal will require a rapid scale-up of zero-carbon energy supply, fuel switching to electricity, efficiency and demand-reduction in all sectors, and the replenishment of natural carbon sinks. These transformations will have immediate impacts on various of the sustainable development goals. As goals such as affordable and clean energy and zero hunger are more immediate to great parts of global population, these impacts are central for societal acceptability of climate policies. Yet, little is known about how the achievement of other social and environmental sustainability objectives can be directly managed through emission reduction policies. In addition, the integrated assessment literature has so far emphasized a single, global (cost-minimizing) carbon price as the optimal mechanism to achieve emissions reductions. In this paper we introduce a broader suite of policies - including direct sector-level regulation, early mitigation action, and lifestyle changes - into the integrated energy-economy-land-use modeling system REMIND-MAgPIE. We examine their impact on non-climate sustainability issues when mean warming is to be kept well below 2 °C or 1.5 °C. We find that a combination of these policies can alleviate air pollution, water extraction, uranium extraction, food and energy price hikes, and dependence on negative emissions technologies, thus resulting in substantially reduced sustainability risks associated with mitigating climate change. Importantly, we find that these targeted policies can more than compensate for most sustainability risks of increasing climate ambition from 2 °C to 1.5 °C.},
author = {Bertram, Christoph and Luderer, Gunnar and Popp, Alexander and Minx, Jan Christoph and Lamb, William F. and Stevanovi{\'{c}}, Miodrag and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and Giannousakis, Anastasis and Kriegler, Elmar},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac3ec},
issn = {17489326},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {emission reduction policies,integrated assessment modeling,sustainable development goals (SDGs)},
title = {{Targeted policies can compensate most of the increased sustainability risks in 1.5 °c mitigation scenarios}},
year = {2018}
}
@misc{Ford2015,
abstract = {A post-2015 climate agreement will require systematic approaches for tracking adaptation progress across Parties to the UNFCC. A number of steps need to be taken to improve adaptation measurement and reporting.},
author = {Ford, J. D. and Berrang-Ford, L. and Biesbroek, R. and Araos, M. and Austin, S. E. and Lesnikowski, A.},
booktitle = {Nature Climate Change},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2744},
isbn = {1758-678X},
issn = {17586798},
title = {{Adaptation tracking for a post-2015 climate agreement}},
year = {2015}
}
@article{DiBari2013,
abstract = {Sentiment Analysis is the task of automatically identifying whether a text or a single sentence is intended to carry a positive or negative connotation. The commonly used Bag-of-Words approach that relies on counting positive and negative words, whose connotation is indicated by specially crafted sentiment dictionaries, is not ideal because it does not take into account the relations between words and how the connotation of single words changes according to the context. This paper proposes a way of identifying and analysing the targets of the opinions and their modifiers, along with their linkage (appraisal group) through an annotation schema called SentiML. Such schema has been developed in order to facilitate the identification of these elements and the annotation of their sentiment, along with advanced linguistic features such as their appraisal type according to the Appraisal Framework. The schema is XML-based and has been also designed to be language-independent. Preliminary results show that the schema allows more coverage than a sentiment dictionary, while achieving reasonably fast and reliable annotation in spite of its fine granularity.},
author = {{Di Bari}, Marilena and Sharoff, Serge and Thomas, Martin},
doi = {10.1145/2517978.2517994},
isbn = {9781450321990},
journal = {Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Collaborative Annotations in Shared Environment: metadata, vocabularies and techniques in the Digital Humanities},
keywords = {appraisal theory,sentiment analysis},
title = {{SentiML: functional annotation for multilingual sentiment analysis}},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Bakker2001,
author = {Bakker, Dorothee C E and Watson, Andrew J and Law, Cliff S},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00005-4},
isbn = {0967-0645},
journal = {Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography},
number = {11},
pages = {2483--2507},
title = {{Southern Ocean iron enrichment promotes inorganic carbon drawdown}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967064501000054},
volume = {48},
year = {2001}
}
@book{Dale2010,
address = {Washington, DC, USA},
author = {Dale, V. H. and Kline, K. L. and Wiens, J. and Fargione, J.},
publisher = {Ecological Society of America},
title = {{Biofuels: implications for land use and biodiversity}},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Popp2017a,
author = {Popp, Alexander and Calvin, Katherine and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Havlik, Petr and Humpen{\"{o}}der, Florian and Stehfest, Elke and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Doelmann, Jonathan C and Gusti, Mykola and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Kyle, Page and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Valin, Hugo and Waldhoff, Stephanie and Weindl, Isabelle and Wise, Marshall and Kriegler, Elmar and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Fricko, Oliver and Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Scenarios Land use Emissions Mitigation Food price},
pages = {331--345},
title = {{Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016303399},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{ONeill2017,
author = {O'Neill, Brian C and Kriegler, Elmar and Ebi, Kristie L and Kemp-Benedict, Eric and Riahi, Keywan and Rothman, Dale S and van Ruijven, Bas J and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Birkmann, Joern and Kok, Kasper and Levy, Marc and Solecki, William},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
keywords = {Scenarios Climate change Mitigation Adaptation Nar},
pages = {169--180},
title = {{The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015000060},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Creutzig2015,
abstract = {Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, landuse and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-theart knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr 1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment ({\textgreater}200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.},
author = {Creutzig, Felix and Ravindranath, N. H. and Berndes, G{\"{o}}ran and Bolwig, Simon and Bright, Ryan and Cherubini, Francesco and Chum, Helena and Corbera, Esteve and Delucchi, Mark and Faaij, Andre and Fargione, Joseph and Haberl, Helmut and Heath, Garvin and Lucon, Oswaldo and Plevin, Richard and Popp, Alexander and Robledo-Abad, Carmenza and Rose, Steven and Smith, Pete and Stromman, Anders and Suh, Sangwon and Masera, Omar},
doi = {10.1111/gcbb.12205},
isbn = {1757-1693},
issn = {17571707},
journal = {GCB Bioenergy},
keywords = {Climate change mitigation,Land use,Life-cycle analysis,Sustainability,Technical potential,Technologies,climate change mitigation,land use,life‐cycle analysis,sustainability,technical potential,technologies},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {916--944},
pmid = {770},
title = {{Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: An assessment}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcbb.12205},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Haberl2015d,
abstract = {Abstract Possible negative effects of increased competition for land include pressures on biodiversity, rising food prices and GHG emissions. However, neoclassical economists often highlight positive aspects of competition, e.g. increased efficiency and innovation. Competition for land occurs when several agents demand the same good or service produced from a limited area. It implies that when one agent acquires scarce resources from land, less resource is available for competing agents. The resource competed for is often not land but rather its function for biomass production, which may be supplanted by other inputs that raise yields. Increased competition may stimulate efficiency but negative environmental effects are likely in the absence of appropriate regulations. Competition between affluent countries with poor people in subsistence economies likely results in adverse social and development outcomes if not mitigated through effective policies. The socioecological metabolism approach is a framework to analyze land-related limits and functions in particular with respect to production and consumption of biomass and carbon sequestration. It can generate databases that consistently link land used with biomass flows which are useful in understanding interlinkages between different products and services and thereby help to analyze systemic feedbacks in the global land system.},
author = {Haberl, Helmut},
doi = {http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.10.002},
issn = {0921-8009},
journal = {Ecological Economics},
keywords = {4.3.3,Bioenergy,Energy,Food,For FOD,From ZOD,Human appropriation of net primary production,Land,Land use,Land-use competition,Socioeconomic metabolism,d1342},
mendeley-tags = {4.3.3,Energy,For FOD,From ZOD,Land,d1342},
month = {nov},
pages = {424--431},
title = {{Competition for land: A sociometabolic perspective}},
translator = {D1342},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914003127},
volume = {119},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Garcia2018,
author = {Garcia, de O. W. and Amann, T. and Hartmann, J},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
title = {{Biomass demand can affect forests nutrient budgets in wood exportation regions}},
volume = {Accepted f},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Creutzig2015,
abstract = {Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, landuse and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-theart knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr 1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment ({\textgreater}200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.},
author = {Creutzig, Felix and Ravindranath, N. H. and Berndes, G{\"{o}}ran and Bolwig, Simon and Bright, Ryan and Cherubini, Francesco and Chum, Helena and Corbera, Esteve and Delucchi, Mark and Faaij, Andre and Fargione, Joseph and Haberl, Helmut and Heath, Garvin and Lucon, Oswaldo and Plevin, Richard and Popp, Alexander and Robledo-Abad, Carmenza and Rose, Steven and Smith, Pete and Stromman, Anders and Suh, Sangwon and Masera, Omar},
doi = {10.1111/gcbb.12205},
isbn = {1757-1693},
issn = {17571707},
journal = {GCB Bioenergy},
keywords = {Climate change mitigation,Land use,Life-cycle analysis,Sustainability,Technical potential,Technologies,climate change mitigation,land use,life‐cycle analysis,sustainability,technical potential,technologies},
month = {sep},
number = {5},
pages = {916--944},
pmid = {770},
title = {{Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: An assessment}},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcbb.12205},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
@incollection{Krey2014a,
author = {Krey, Volker and Masera, Omar and Blanford, Geoffrey and Bruckner, Thomas and Cooke, Roger and Fisher-Vanden, Karen and Haberl, Helmut and Hertwich, Edgar and Kriegler, Elmar and M{\"{u}}ller, Daniel Beat and Paltsev, Sergey and Price, Lynn and Schl{\"{o}}mer, Steffen and {\"{U}}rge-Vorsatz, Diana and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Zwickel, Timm},
booktitle = {Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler,},
title = {{Annex II: Metrics {\&} Methodology}},
year = {2014}
}
@article{Friedlingstein2006,
abstract = {Abstract Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.},
author = {Friedlingstein, P and Cox, P and Betts, R and Bopp, L and von Bloh, W and Brovkin, V and Cadule, P and Doney, S and Eby, M and Fung, I and Bala, G and John, J and Jones, C and Joos, F and Kato, T and Kawamiya, M and Knorr, W and Lindsay, K and Matthews, H D and Raddatz, T and Rayner, P and Reick, C and Roeckner, E and Schnitzler, K.-G. and Schnur, R and Strassmann, K and Weaver, A J and Yoshikawa, C and Zeng, N},
doi = {10.1175/jcli3800.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
pages = {3337--3353},
title = {{Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3800.1},
volume = {19},
year = {2006}
}
@article{Rogelj2013b,
annote = {10.1038/nclimate1758},
author = {Rogelj, Joeri and McCollum, David L and O'Neill, Brian C and Riahi, Keywan},
doi = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n4/abs/nclimate1758.html#supplementary-information},
issn = {1758-678X},
journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
pages = {405--412},
title = {{2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2°C}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1758},
volume = {3},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Dixon-Woods2005,
abstract = {BACKGROUND: The limitations of traditional forms of systematic review in making optimal use of all forms of evidence are increasingly evident, especially for policy-makers and practitioners. There is an urgent need for robust ways of incorporating qualitative evidence into systematic reviews. OBJECTIVES: In this paper we provide a brief overview and critique of a selection of strategies for synthesising qualitative and quantitative evidence, ranging from techniques that are largely qualitative and interpretive through to techniques that are largely quantitative and integrative. RESULTS: A range of methods is available for synthesising diverse forms of evidence. These include narrative summary, thematic analysis, grounded theory, meta-ethnography, meta-study, realist synthesis, Miles and Huberman's data analysis techniques, content analysis, case survey, qualitative comparative analysis and Bayesian meta-analysis. Methods vary in their strengths and weaknesses, ability to deal with qualitative and quantitative forms of evidence, and type of question for which they are most suitable. CONCLUSIONS: We identify a number of procedural, conceptual and theoretical issues that need to be addressed in moving forward with this area, and emphasise the need for existing techniques to be evaluated and modified, rather than inventing new approaches.},
author = {Dixon-Woods, Mary and Agarwal, Shona and Jones, David and Young, Bridget and Sutton, Alex},
doi = {10.1177/135581960501000110},
isbn = {13558196},
issn = {1355-8196},
journal = {Journal of Health Services Research {\&} Policy},
pmid = {15667704},
title = {{Synthesising qualitative and quantitative evidence: A review of possible methods}},
year = {2005}
}
@article{lal2010beyond,
author = {Lal, Rattan},
journal = {Food security},
number = {2},
pages = {169--177},
publisher = {Springer},
title = {{Beyond Copenhagen: mitigating climate change and achieving food security through soil carbon sequestration}},
volume = {2},
year = {2010}
}
@article{lal2010carbon,
author = {Lal, R},
journal = {Journal of Soil Salinity and Water Quality},
pages = {30--40},
title = {{Carbon sequestration in saline soils}},
volume = {1},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Boyd2008,
author = {Boyd, P W and Denman, K L},
journal = {Mar Ecol Prog Ser},
pages = {213--218},
title = {{Implications of large-scale iron fertilization of the oceans}},
volume = {364},
year = {2008}
}
@article{Bakker2005,
author = {Bakker, Dorothee C E and Bozec, Yann and Nightingale, Philip D and Goldson, Laura and Messias, Marie-Jos{\'{e}} and de Baar, Hein J W and Liddicoat, Malcolm and Skjelvan, Ingunn and Strass, Volker and Watson, Andrew J},
chapter = {1001},
doi = {10.1016/j.dsr.2004.11.015},
isbn = {09670637},
journal = {Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers},
number = {6},
pages = {1001--1019},
title = {{Iron and mixing affect biological carbon uptake in SOIREE and EisenEx, two Southern Ocean iron fertilisation experiments}},
volume = {52},
year = {2005}
}
@article{Newbold2015,
abstract = {Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear[mdash]a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5{\%}, total abundance by 39.5{\%} and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3{\%}. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6{\%}), total abundance (10.7{\%}) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1{\%}), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4{\%} globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9{\%} average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.},
author = {Newbold, Tim and Hudson, Lawrence N. and Hill, Samantha L. L. and Contu, Sara and Lysenko, Igor and Senior, Rebecca A. and B{\"{o}}rger, Luca and Bennett, Dominic J. and Choimes, Argyrios and Collen, Ben and Day, Julie and {De Palma}, Adriana and D{\'{i}}az, Sandra and Echeverria-Londo{\~{n}}o, Susy and Edgar, Melanie J. and Feldman, Anat and Garon, Morgan and Harrison, Michelle L. K. and Alhusseini, Tamera and Ingram, Daniel J. and Itescu, Yuval and Kattge, Jens and Kemp, Victoria and Kirkpatrick, Lucinda and Kleyer, Michael and Correia, David Laginha Pinto and Martin, Callum D. and Meiri, Shai and Novosolov, Maria and Pan, Yuan and Phillips, Helen R. P. and Purves, Drew W. and Robinson, Alexandra and Simpson, Jake and Tuck, Sean L. and Weiher, Evan and White, Hannah J. and Ewers, Robert M. and Mace, Georgina M. and Scharlemann, J{\"{o}}rn P. W. Jorn P W and Purvis, Andy and Borger, Luca and Bennett, Dominic J. and Choimes, Argyrios and Collen, Ben and Day, Julie and {De Palma}, Adriana and Diaz, Sandra and Echeverria-Londono, Susy and Edgar, Melanie J. and Feldman, Anat and Garon, Morgan and Harrison, Michelle L. K. and Alhusseini, Tamera and Ingram, Daniel J. and Itescu, Yuval and Kattge, Jens and Kemp, Victoria and Kirkpatrick, Lucinda and Kleyer, Michael and Correia, David Laginha Pinto and Martin, Callum D. and Meiri, Shai and Novosolov, Maria and Pan, Yuan and Phillips, Helen R. P. and Purves, Drew W. and Robinson, Alexandra and Simpson, Jake and Tuck, Sean L. and Weiher, Evan and White, Hannah J. and Ewers, Robert M. and Mace, Georgina M. and Scharlemann, J{\"{o}}rn P. W. Jorn P W and Purvis, Andy},
doi = {10.1038/nature14324},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
month = {apr},
number = {7545},
pages = {45--50},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
title = {{Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity}},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature14324},
volume = {520},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Alcalde2018,
abstract = {Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO2 retention, and of surface CO2 leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50{\%} probability that leakage remains below 0.0008{\%} per year, with over 98{\%} of the injected CO2 retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO2 storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78{\%} will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO2 can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO2 in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
arxivId = {eartharxiv.org/x59qg},
author = {Alcalde, Juan and Flude, Stephanie and Wilkinson, Mark and Johnson, Gareth and Edlmann, Katriona and Bond, Clare E. and Scott, Vivian and Gilfillan, Stuart M.V. and Ogaya, X{\`{e}}nia and {Stuart Haszeldine}, R.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1},
eprint = {x59qg},
issn = {20411723},
journal = {Nature Communications},
primaryClass = {eartharxiv.org},
title = {{Estimating geological CO2storage security to deliver on climate mitigation}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Kriegler2016a,
abstract = {We investigate the extent to which future energy transformation pathways meeting ambitious climate change mitigation targets depend on assumptions about economic growth and fossil fuel availability. The analysis synthesizes results from the RoSE multi-model study aiming to identify robust and sensitive features of mitigation pathways under these inherently uncertain drivers of energy and emissions developments. Based on an integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we show that economic growth and fossil resource assumptions substantially affect baseline developments, but in no case they lead to the significant greenhouse gas emission reduction that would be needed to achieve long-term climate targets without dedicated climate policy. The influence of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions on climate mitigation pathways is relatively small due to overriding requirements imposed by long-term climate targets. While baseline assumptions can have substantial effects on mitigation costs and carbon prices, we find that the effects of model differences and the stringency of the climate target are larger compared to that of baseline assumptions. We conclude that inherent uncertainties about socio-economic determinants like economic growth and fossil resource availability can be effectively dealt with in the assessment of mitigation pathways.},
author = {Kriegler, Elmar and Mouratiadou, Ioanna and Luderer, Gunnar and Bauer, Nico and Brecha, Robert J and Calvin, Katherine and {De Cian}, Enrica and Edmonds, Jae and Jiang, Kejun and Tavoni, Massimo and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1668-3},
issn = {1573-1480},
journal = {Climatic Change},
pages = {7--22},
title = {{Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1668-3},
volume = {136},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Mollersten2004,
abstract = {This paper investigates the impact of combining CO2 capture and storage with alternative systems for biomass-based combined heat and power production (CHP) in Kraft pulp and paper mills. We compare heat, power, and CO2 balances of systems with alternative configurations of the CHP and CO2-capture systems. Because the captured CO2 comes from renewable biomass, the studied systems yield negative CO2 emissions. It is shown that pulp mills and integrated pulp and paper mills have the potential to become net exporters of biomass-based electricity while at the same time removing CO2 from the atmosphere on a net basis. The study shows that that the overall best CO2 abatement is achieved when CO2 capture is carried out within a biomass integrated gasifier with combined cycle where the syngas undergoes a CO-shift reaction. This configuration combines efficient energy conversion with a high CO2 capture efficiency. Furthermore, cost curves are constructed, which show how the cost of CO2 capture and storage in pulp and paper mills depends on system configuration and the CO2 transportation distance. {\textcopyright} 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
author = {M{\"{o}}llersten, Kenneth and Gao, Lin and Yan, Jinyue and Obersteiner, Michael},
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2004.01.003},
isbn = {0960-1481},
issn = {09601481},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
keywords = {Biomass,Black liquor,CO2 capture,Carbon-negative production,Electricity production,Pulp and paper mills},
month = {jul},
number = {9},
pages = {1583--1598},
pmid = {1111},
title = {{Efficient energy systems with CO2 capture and storage from renewable biomass in pulp and paper mills}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S096014810400014X},
volume = {29},
year = {2004}
}
@article{Carlson1993,
abstract = {Coal combustion residues account for 90{\~{}} of all fossil fuel com- bustion wastes produced in the USA. It is projected that by the year 2000 more than 150 million t of these materials will be produced in the USA each year. Presently, only about 2{\{}W/{\~{}} of these wastes are utilized, with the remainder deposited in landfills or surface impound. ments. This article reviews the information available concerning the environmental impacts associated with the disposal or utilization of coal combustion residues. The majority of the information available in the literature concerns the impacts of fly and bottom ashes; other coal combustion wastes have not received much attention. The major potential impacts of ash disposal on terrestrial ecosystems include: leaching of potentially toxic substances into soils and groundwater; reductions in plant establishment and growth due primarily to adverse chemical characteristics of the ash; changes in the elemental compo- sition of vegetation growing on the ash; and increased mobility and accumulation of potentially toxic elements throughout the food chain. Ash disposal in landfills and settling ponds can influence adjacent aquatic ecosystems directly, through inputs of ash basin effluent and surface runoff, and indirectly, through seepage and groundwater con- tamination. Major impacts are generally associated with changes in water chemistry, including changes in pH and concentrations of po- tentially toxic elements. Using ash as a soil amendment can improve soil texture and water-holding capacity, increase soil pH, and enhance soil fertility. However, it may also result in excessive soluble salt con- centrations, excess B, and increased concentrations of other poten- tially toxic trace elements; reduction in the concentrations and/or availability of soil N and P; elemental imbalances due to excessively high pH; and cementation or compaction of soil. Scrubber sludge and fiuidized bed combustion waste may be used as soil amendments as well, but also may create problems due to high alkalinity and high salinity.}},
author = {Carlson, Claire L. and Adriano, Domy C.},
doi = {10.2134/jeq1993.00472425002200020002x},
issn = {0047-2425},
journal = {Journal of Environment Quality},
title = {{Environmental Impacts of Coal Combustion Residues}},
year = {1993}
}
@article{pan2009role,
author = {Pan, Genxing and Smith, Pete and Pan, Weinan},
journal = {Agriculture, Ecosystems {\&} Environment},
number = {1},
pages = {344--348},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {{The role of soil organic matter in maintaining the productivity and yield stability of cereals in China}},
volume = {129},
year = {2009}
}
@article{VanVuuren2017,
author = {van Vuuren, Detlef P and Riahi, Keywan and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Emmerling, Johannes and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Kc, Samir and Kriegler, Elmar and O'Neill, Brian},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.009},
issn = {0959-3780},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
pages = {148--152},
title = {{The Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental change}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016301790},
volume = {42},
year = {2017}
}
@book{CaldecottB.;LomaxG.;Workman2015,
abstract = {The Stranded Assets Programme at the University of Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment was established in 2012 to understand environment-related risks driving asset stranding in different sectors and systemically. We research the materiality of environment-related risks over time, how different risks might be interrelated, and the potential impacts of stranded assets on investors, businesses, regulators, and policymakers. We also work with partners to develop strategies to manage the consequences of environment-related risks and stranded assets.},
address = {Oxford},
author = {{Caldecott, B.; Lomax, G.; Workman}, M.},
institution = {Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment},
keywords = {Overview NETs},
mendeley-tags = {Overview NETs},
pages = {37},
publisher = {Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment},
title = {{Stranded Carbon Assets and Negative Emissions Technologies}},
year = {2015}
}
@book{IPCC2013a,
address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
author = {IPCC},
doi = {10.1017/CBO9781107415324},
editor = {Qin, D and Plattner, G.-K. and Tignor, M and Allen, S K and Boschung, J and Nauels, A and Xia, Y and Bex, V and Midgley, P M},
isbn = {ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0},
pages = {1535},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {{Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}},
url = {http://www.climatechange2013.org},
year = {2013}
}
@article{Lenzi2018,
abstract = {Climate policy advice is being undermined by value-laden choices over risky mitigation strategies, warn Dominic Lenzi and colleagues. Climate policy advice is being undermined by value-laden choices over risky mitigation strategies, warn Dominic Lenzi and colleagues.},
author = {Lenzi, Dominic and Lamb, William F. and Hilaire, J{\'{e}}r{\^{o}}me and Kowarsch, Martin and Minx, Jan C.},
doi = {10.1038/d41586-018-06695-5},
issn = {0028-0836},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {Climate change,Ethics,Philosophy,Policy},
title = {{Don't deploy negative emissions technologies without ethical analysis}},
year = {2018}
}
@techreport{Luderer2017,
author = {Luderer, G and Kriegler, E and Delsa, L and Edelenbosch, O Y and Emmerling, J and Krey, V and McCollum, D L and Pachauri, S and Riahi, K and Saveyn, B and Tavoni, M and Vrontisi, Z and van Vuuren, D P and Arent, D and Arvesen, A and Fujimori, S and Iyer, G and Keppo, I and Kermeli, K and Mima, S and {{\'{O}} Broin}, E and Pietzcker, R C and Sano, F and Scholz, Y and van Ruijven, B and Wilson, C},
title = {{Deep decarbonisation towards 1.5 °C – 2 °C stabilisation. Policy findings from the ADVANCE project (1st edition)}},
year = {2017}
}
@article{Metting2001,
abstract = {Fossil fuel use and land use change that began over 200 years ago are driving the rapid increase in atmospheric content of CO2 and other greenhouse gases that may be impacting climatic change (Houghton et al., 1996). Enhanced terrestrial uptake of CO2 over the next 50 to 100 years has been suggested as a way to reclaim the 150 or more Pg carbon (C) lost to the atmosphere from vegetation and soil since 1850 as a consequence of land use change (Batjes, 1999; Lal et al., 1998a; Houghton, 1995), thus effectively `buying time' for the development and implementation of new longer term technical solutions, such as C-free fuels. The ultimate potential for terrestrial C sequestration is not known, however, because we lack adequate understanding of (1) the biogeochemical mechanisms responsible for C fluxes and storage potential on the molecular, landscape, regional, and global scales, and (2) the complex genetic and physiological processes controlling key biological and ecological phenomena. Specifically, the structure and dynamics of the belowground component of terrestrial carbon pools, which accounts for two-thirds of global terrestrial organic C stocks, is poorly understood. Focusing primarily on forests, croplands and grasslands, the purpose of this chapter is to consider innovative technology for enhancing C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems and address the scientific issues related to better understanding of soil C sequestration potential through appropriate and effective approaches to ecosystem management.},
author = {Metting, F.B. and Smith, J.L. and Amthor, J.S. and Izaurralde, R.C.},
doi = {10.1023/A:1017509224801},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = {1},
pages = {11--34},
title = {{Science needs and new technology for increasing soil carbon sequestration}},
url = {http://www.springerlink.com/index/Q2437114QGW7GG26.pdf},
volume = {51},
year = {2001}
}
@article{Bertram2010,
author = {Bertram, Christine},
chapter = {1130},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2009.10.065},
isbn = {03014215},
journal = {Energy Policy},
number = {2},
pages = {1130--1139},
title = {{Ocean iron fertilization in the context of the Kyoto protocol and the post-Kyoto process}},
volume = {38},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Smith2010k,
abstract = {A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.},
author = {Smith, Pete and Gregory, Peter J and {Van Vuuren}, Detlef and Obersteiner, Michael and Havl{\'{i}}k, Petr and Rounsevell, Mark and Woods, Jeremy and Stehfest, Elke and Bellarby, Jessica},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2010.0127},
isbn = {0962-8436},
issn = {1471-2970},
journal = {Phil Trans R Soc},
keywords = {agriculture,competition for land,d3174,forestry,land use,policy},
mendeley-tags = {d3174},
month = {sep},
number = {1554},
pages = {2941--2957},
pmid = {20713395},
publisher = {The Royal Society},
title = {{Competition for land}},
translator = {D3174},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20713395 http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=PMC2935113},
volume = {365},
year = {2010}
}
@incollection{Kraxner2015,
address = {Cham},
author = {Kraxner, Florian and Nordstr{\"{o}}m, Eva-Maria},
booktitle = {The Future Use of Nordic Forests},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-14218-0_5},
pages = {63--81},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
title = {{Bioenergy Futures: A Global Outlook on the Implications of Land Use for Forest-Based Feedstock Production}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-14218-0{\_}5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Fang2014,
abstract = {There is a limited understanding of the effects of soil properties on biochar carbon (C) stability. This knowledge is essential to evaluate the capacity of biochar for long-term soil C sequestration fully. In this study two biochars, produced by slow pyrolysis at 450 or 550◦C from a $\delta$13C-depleted (−36.4‰) Eucalyptus saligna Sm. woody material, were incubated in four soils (Inceptisol, Entisol, Oxisol and Vertisol) of contrasting chemical and mineralogical properties. The total biochar-C mineralized over 12 months was 0.30–1.14 and 0.97–2.71{\%} from the soil-biochar mixtures incubated at 20 and 40◦C, respectively. The total biochar-C mineralized (mg CO2-C per unit of native soil organic C (SOC) basis) from soils incubated with the 450◦C biochar was approximately twice the corresponding amount mineralized from the 550◦C biochar systems. The influence of soil properties on biochar-C mineralization was greater for the 450◦C biochar than the 550◦C biochar. The smallest proportion of C mineralized from the 450◦C biochar occurred in the Inceptisol incubated at 20◦C and in the Oxisol at 40◦C. However, when expressed on a per unit of native SOC basis, the C mineralization of the 450 and 550◦C biochars was least in the Oxisol and greatest in the Inceptisol at both incubation temperatures. Mean residence times (MRTs) of the biochars estimated using the two-pool exponential model varied between 44 and 610 years. The estimated MRT of the biochars may vary under field conditions depending upon the environmental conditions and addition of labile C from plants. Our results indicate that biochar-C was stabilized by variable charge minerals in the Oxisol and that the stabilization occurred rapidly at high temperatures.},
author = {Fang, Y. and Singh, B. and Singh, B. P. and Krull, E.},
doi = {10.1111/ejss.12094},
isbn = {1351-0754},
issn = {13510754},
journal = {European Journal of Soil Science},
language = {en},
month = {jul},
number = {1},
pages = {60--71},
title = {{Biochar carbon stability in four contrasting soils}},
volume = {65},
year = {2014}
}
@book{Schoneveld2010,
author = {Schoneveld, G. and German, L. and Andrade, R. and Chin, M. and Caroko, W. and Romero-Hern{\'{a}}ndez, O},
publisher = {CIFOR},
title = {{The role of national governance systems in biofuel development: A comparative analysis of lessons learned}},
year = {2010}
}
@article{Lassaletta2015,
abstract = {Sommer and Bossio (2014) model the potential soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in agricultural soils (croplands and grasslands) during the next 87 years, concluding that this process cannot be considered as a climate stabilization wedge. We argue, however, that the amounts of SOC potentially sequestered in both scenarios (pessimistic and optimistic) fulfil the requirements for being considered as wedge because in both cases at least 25 GtC would be sequestered during the next 50 years. We consider that it is precisely in the near future, and meanwhile other solutions are developed, when this stabilization effort is most urgent even if after some decades the sequestration rate is significantly reduced. Indirect effects of SOC sequestration on mitigation could reinforce the potential of this solution. We conclude that the sequestration of organic carbon in agricultural soils as a climate change mitigation tool still deserves important attention for scientists, managers and policy makers.},
author = {Lassaletta, Luis and Aguilera, Eduardo},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.01.038},
isbn = {1359301402},
issn = {10958630},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
keywords = {Climate change mitigation,Soil organic carbon sequestration,Stabilization wedge},
pages = {48--49},
pmid = {25646676},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
title = {{Soil carbon sequestration is a climate stabilization wedge: Comments on Sommer and Bossio (2014)}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.01.038},
volume = {153},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Zickfeld2016,
abstract = {Recent research has demonstrated that global mean surface air warming is approximately proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions. This proportional relationship has received considerable attention, as it allows one to calculate the cumulative CO 2 emissions (‘carbon budget') compatible with temperature targets and is a useful measure for model inter-comparison. Here we use an Earth system model to explore whether this relationship persists during periods of net negative CO 2 emissions. Negative CO 2 emissions are required in the majority of emissions scenarios limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial, with emissions becoming net negative in the second half of this century in several scenarios. We find that for model simulations with a symmetric 1{\%} per year increase and decrease in atmospheric CO 2 , the temperature change ($\Delta$ T ) versus cumulative CO 2 emissions (CE) relationship is nonlinear during periods of net negative emissions, owing to the lagged response of the deep ocean to previously increasing atmospheric CO 2 . When corrected for this lagged response, or if the CO 2 decline is applied after the system has equilibrated with the previous CO 2 increase, the $\Delta$ T versus CE relationship is close to linear during periods of net negative CO 2 emissions. A proportionality constant—the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE)− can therefore be calculated for both positive and net negative CO 2 emission periods. We find that in simulations with a symmetric 1{\%} per year increase and decrease in atmospheric CO 2 the TCRE is larger on the upward than on the downward CO 2 trajectory, suggesting that positive CO 2 emissions are more effective at warming than negative emissions are at subsequently cooling. We also find that the cooling effectiveness of negative CO 2 emissions decreases if applied at higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.},
author = {Zickfeld, Kirsten and MacDougall, Andrew H and Matthews, H Damon},