| id | Title | Status | Author | Description | Discussions to | Created |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP-220 | Change to Thales boost | Draft | holmberg | Change Thales boost more sustainable | discordlink | 2024-08-06 |
Change the Thales boost to financially sustainable for small odds.
Thales boost affects small odds proportionally more than large ones. However due to the skew, we have not faced problems or abusive betting yet, but that might be a problem in the future. We are currently on a knife edge with the Thales boost calculating formula.
I suggest that the bonus be changed to linear based on the actual odds and the bonus percentage be doubled to keep the bonus at the same level after this change. I'm suggesting calculating it this way using implied probability
newOddsImplied = oldOddsImplied/ (1.02-0.02*oldOddsImplied)
There are test results from using that formula on how it would affect the odds. Change to profit is always +2%. The boost effect to lower and higher odds is linear.
Old Odds Implied: 0.2
New Odds Implied: 0.196850
Old Odds Decimal: 5.0
New Odds Decimal: 5.080
Old Odds Implied: 0.5
New Odds Implied: 0.495050
Old Odds Decimal: 2.0
New Odds Decimal: 2.020
Old Odds Implied: 0.8
New Odds Implied: 0.796813
Old Odds Decimal: 1.25
New Odds Decimal: 1.255
Compared to the old system Thales Boost is significantly smaller for very low odds and bigger for high odds. There is a visualization of data and some data points. New Thales Boost V2 gives better odds after an implied probability of 0.5 and decimal odds of @ 2. But most importantly, even @100 boosted odds are lower than the limit, which is negative for PNL.
Old Odds Implied: 0.99
Thalesboost V1: 1.020
Thalesboost V2: 1.010
Old Odds Implied: 0.9524
Thalesboost V1: 1.060
Thalesboost V2: 1.051
Old Odds Implied: 0.9090
Thalesboost V1: 1.111
Thalesboost V2: 1.102
Old Odds Implied: 0.66666
Thalesboost V1: 1.515
Thalesboost V2: 1.510
Old Odds Implied: 0.5
Thalesboost V1: 2.020
Thalesboost V2: 2.020
Old Odds Implied: 0.33333
Thalesboost V1: 3.030
Thalesboost V2: 3.040
Old Odds Implied: 0.25
Thalesboost V1: 4.040
Thalesboost V2: 4.060
Old Odds Implied: 0.1
Thalesboost V1: 10.100
Thalesboost V2: 10.180
Old Odds Implied: 0.05
Thalesboost V1: 20.200
Thalesboost V2: 20.380
Each individual game's odds are boosted using the same formula. It is fair to offer parlay players the same odds as players who play single games and it doesn’t have any negative effect on PNL and does not contain risks.
For example, parlay with 15 games @1.5 (Boosted 1.51) Without boost: 437,89
Thales boost V1: ~503,57 (Total boost 15%)
Thales boost V2: 483,78 (Total boost 10.4%)
For example, parlay with 3 games @5 (Boosted 5.08)
Without boost: 125
Thales boost V1: ~128,75 (Total boost 3%)
Thales boost V2: 131,10 (Total boost 4.88%)
It has the same effect in parlays as in singles. Small odds are lower in Thales Boost V2 and higher odds are better.
2% Thales boost to profit, it sounds better than 1% and near @2 odds have similar effect than V1. Calculate boost using newOddsImplied formula Same formula for each individual game in parlay as for singles
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