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CDC flat baseline #94

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Tracked by #80
SamuelBrand1 opened this issue Oct 31, 2024 · 1 comment · May be fixed by #102
Open
Tracked by #80

CDC flat baseline #94

SamuelBrand1 opened this issue Oct 31, 2024 · 1 comment · May be fixed by #102

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@SamuelBrand1
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SamuelBrand1 commented Oct 31, 2024

This is a task of #80 .

The goal of this task is to use the baseline forecaster https://cmu-delphi.github.io/epipredict/reference/cdc_baseline_forecaster.html to produce a useful comparison baseline of the proportion of a target pathogen.

Because this is a simple flatline, my view is that this is easiest achieved with a logit-transform on the proportion data, forecasting that and then gathering the prediction quantiles.

Alternative

We can follow the same pattern as the main forecasting approach: that is forecasting the numerator and using an existing denominator forecast to construct proportions.

@dylanhmorris
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This will be closed by #102

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