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Because this is a simple flatline, my view is that this is easiest achieved with a logit-transform on the proportion data, forecasting that and then gathering the prediction quantiles.
Alternative
We can follow the same pattern as the main forecasting approach: that is forecasting the numerator and using an existing denominator forecast to construct proportions.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered:
This is a task of #80 .
The goal of this task is to use the baseline forecaster https://cmu-delphi.github.io/epipredict/reference/cdc_baseline_forecaster.html to produce a useful comparison baseline of the proportion of a target pathogen.
Because this is a simple flatline, my view is that this is easiest achieved with a logit-transform on the proportion data, forecasting that and then gathering the prediction quantiles.
Alternative
We can follow the same pattern as the main forecasting approach: that is forecasting the numerator and using an existing denominator forecast to construct proportions.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered: