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@article{alova2020global, | ||
title={A global analysis of the progress and failure of electric utilities to adapt their portfolios of power-generation assets to the energy transition}, | ||
author={Alova, Galina}, | ||
journal={Nature Energy}, | ||
volume={5}, | ||
number={11}, | ||
pages={920--927}, | ||
@article{christensen2004effects, | ||
title={The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin}, | ||
author={Christensen, Niklas S and Wood, Andrew W and Voisin, Nathalie and Lettenmaier, Dennis P and Palmer, Richard N}, | ||
journal={Climatic change}, | ||
volume={62}, | ||
pages={337--363}, | ||
year={2004}, | ||
doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013684.13621.1f}, | ||
publisher={Springer} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{bass2023aridification, | ||
title={Aridification of Colorado River Basin's snowpack regions has driven water losses despite ameliorating effects of vegetation}, | ||
author={Bass, Benjamin and Goldenson, Naomi and Rahimi, Stefan and Hall, Alex}, | ||
journal={Water Resources Research}, | ||
volume={59}, | ||
number={7}, | ||
pages={e2022WR033454}, | ||
year={2023}, | ||
doi = {10.1029/2022WR033454}, | ||
publisher={Wiley Online Library} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{salehabadi2020future, | ||
title={The future hydrology of the Colorado River Basin}, | ||
author={Salehabadi, Homa and Tarboton, David and Kuhn, Eric and Udall, Brad and Wheeler, Kevin and Rosenberg, David and Goeking, Sara and Schmidt, John C}, | ||
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publisher={Nature Publishing Group}, | ||
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url={https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00686-5} | ||
} | ||
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@article{craig2018review, | ||
title={A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States}, | ||
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@misc{eia2021lcoe, | ||
title={Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021}, | ||
url={https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf}, | ||
author={U.S. Energy Information Administration,}, | ||
howpublished={[PDF]}, | ||
year={2021}, | ||
month={Feb} | ||
} | ||
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@article{iyer2015diffusion, | ||
title={Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets}, | ||
author={Iyer, Gokul and Hultman, Nathan and Eom, Jiyong and McJeon, Haewon and Patel, Pralit and Clarke, Leon}, | ||
journal={Technological Forecasting and Social Change}, | ||
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pages={103--118}, | ||
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publisher={Elsevier}, | ||
doi={10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.025}, | ||
url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.025} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{khan2021impacts, | ||
title={Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments}, | ||
author={Khan, Zarrar and Iyer, Gokul and Patel, Pralit and Kim, Son and Hejazi, Mohamad and Burleyson, Casey and Wise, Marshall}, | ||
journal={Nature communications}, | ||
volume={12}, | ||
number={1}, | ||
pages={1--12}, | ||
year={2021}, | ||
publisher={Nature Publishing Group}, | ||
doi={10.1038/s41467-021-21785-1}, | ||
url={https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21785-1} | ||
publisher={Utah State University, Quinney College of Natural Resources Center for~�} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{van2015comparing, | ||
title={Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 C scenarios with historically observed rates of change}, | ||
author={van Sluisveld, Mari{\"e}sse AE and Harmsen, JHM and Bauer, Nico and McCollum, David L and Riahi, Keywan and Tavoni, Massimo and van Vuuren, Detlef P and Wilson, Charlie and van der Zwaan, Bob}, | ||
journal={Global Environmental Change}, | ||
volume={35}, | ||
pages={436--449}, | ||
@article{hadjimichael2020defining, | ||
title={Defining robustness, vulnerabilities, and consequential scenarios for diverse stakeholder interests in institutionally complex river basins}, | ||
author={Hadjimichael, Antonia and Quinn, Julianne and Wilson, Erin and Reed, Patrick and Basdekas, Leon and Yates, David and Garrison, Michelle}, | ||
journal={Earth's Future}, | ||
volume={8}, | ||
number={7}, | ||
pages={e2020EF001503}, | ||
year={2020}, | ||
doi = {10.1029/2020EF001503}, | ||
publisher={Wiley Online Library} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{kopytkovskiy2015climate, | ||
title={Climate-change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Upper Colorado River Basin}, | ||
author={Kopytkovskiy, M and Geza, M and McCray, JE}, | ||
journal={Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}, | ||
volume={3}, | ||
pages={473--493}, | ||
year={2015}, | ||
publisher={Elsevier}, | ||
doi={10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.019}, | ||
url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.019} | ||
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.02.014}, | ||
publisher={Elsevier} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{vernon2018cerf, | ||
title={CERF--A Geospatial Model for Assessing Future Energy Production Technology Expansion Feasibility}, | ||
author={Vernon, Chris R and Zuljevic, Nino and Rice, Jennie S and Seiple, Timothy E and Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW and Voisin, Nathalie and Kraucunas, Ian P and Chunlian, Jin and Olson, Jarrod and Schmidt, Laurel and others}, | ||
journal={Journal of Open Research Software}, | ||
volume={6}, | ||
number={1}, | ||
year={2018}, | ||
publisher={Ubiquity Press}, | ||
doi={10.5334/jors.227}, | ||
url={http://doi.org/10.5334/jors.227} | ||
} | ||
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@article{wilson2013future, | ||
title={Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?}, | ||
author={Wilson, Charlie and Grubler, Arnulf and Bauer, Nico and Krey, V and Riahi, K}, | ||
journal={Climatic Change}, | ||
volume={118}, | ||
number={2}, | ||
pages={381--395}, | ||
year={2013}, | ||
publisher={Springer}, | ||
doi={10.1007/s10584-012-0618-y}, | ||
url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0618-y} | ||
} | ||
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@article{wise2019representing, | ||
title={Representing power sector detail and flexibility in a multi-sector model}, | ||
author={Wise, Marshall and Patel, Pralit and Khan, Zarrar and Kim, Son H and Hejazi, Mohamad and Iyer, Gokul}, | ||
journal={Energy Strategy Reviews}, | ||
volume={26}, | ||
pages={100411}, | ||
year={2019}, | ||
publisher={Elsevier}, | ||
doi={10.1016/j.esr.2019.100411}, | ||
url={https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100411} | ||
} | ||
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||
@InProceedings{ mckinney-proc-scipy-2010, | ||
author = { {W}es {M}c{K}inney }, | ||
title = { {D}ata {S}tructures for {S}tatistical {C}omputing in {P}ython }, | ||
booktitle = { {P}roceedings of the 9th {P}ython in {S}cience {C}onference }, | ||
pages = { 56 - 61 }, | ||
year = { 2010 }, | ||
editor = { {S}t\'efan van der {W}alt and {J}arrod {M}illman }, | ||
doi = { 10.25080/Majora-92bf1922-00a } | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{sridharan2019resilience, | ||
title={Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation}, | ||
author={Sridharan, Vignesh and Broad, Oliver and Shivakumar, Abhishek and Howells, Mark and Boehlert, Brent and Groves, David G and Rogner, H-Holger and Taliotis, Constantinos and Neumann, James E and Strzepek, Kenneth M and others}, | ||
journal={Nature communications}, | ||
volume={10}, | ||
@article{milly2020colorado, | ||
title={Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation}, | ||
author={Milly, Paul CD and Dunne, Krista A}, | ||
journal={Science}, | ||
volume={367}, | ||
number={6483}, | ||
pages={1252--1255}, | ||
year={2020}, | ||
doi = {10.1126/science.aay9187}, | ||
publisher={American Association for the Advancement of Science} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{miller2021will, | ||
title={How will baseflow respond to climate change in the upper Colorado River Basin?}, | ||
author={Miller, Olivia L and Miller, Matthew P and Longley, Patrick C and Alder, Jay R and Bearup, Lindsay A and Pruitt, Tom and Jones, Daniel K and Putman, Annie L and Rumsey, Christine A and McKinney, Tim}, | ||
journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, | ||
volume={48}, | ||
number={22}, | ||
pages={e2021GL095085}, | ||
year={2021}, | ||
doi = {10.1029/2021GL095085}, | ||
publisher={Wiley Online Library} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{hadjimichael2020advancing, | ||
title={Advancing diagnostic model evaluation to better understand water shortage mechanisms in institutionally complex river basins}, | ||
author={Hadjimichael, Antonia and Quinn, Julianne and Reed, Patrick}, | ||
journal={Water Resources Research}, | ||
volume={56}, | ||
number={10}, | ||
pages={e2020WR028079}, | ||
year={2020}, | ||
doi = {10.1029/2020WR028079}, | ||
publisher={Wiley Online Library} | ||
} | ||
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||
@article{lempert2002new, | ||
title={A new decision sciences for complex systems}, | ||
author={Lempert, Robert J}, | ||
journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, | ||
volume={99}, | ||
number={suppl\_3}, | ||
pages={7309--7313}, | ||
year={2002}, | ||
doi = {10.1073/pnas.082081699}, | ||
publisher={National Acad Sciences} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@misc{kwakkel2016coping, | ||
title={Coping with the wickedness of public policy problems: approaches for decision making under deep uncertainty}, | ||
author={Kwakkel, Jan H and Walker, Warren E and Haasnoot, Marjolijn}, | ||
journal={Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management}, | ||
volume={142}, | ||
number={3}, | ||
pages={01816001}, | ||
year={2016}, | ||
doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000626}, | ||
publisher={American Society of Civil Engineers} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{walker2003dealing, | ||
title={Dealing with uncertainty in policy analysis and policymaking}, | ||
author={Walker, WE and Marchau, VAWJ}, | ||
journal={Integrated Assessment}, | ||
volume={4}, | ||
number={1}, | ||
pages={1--9}, | ||
year={2019}, | ||
publisher={Nature Publishing Group}, | ||
doi={10.1038/s41467-018-08275-7}, | ||
url={https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08275-7} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{JAYADEV2020114267, | ||
title = {U.S. electricity infrastructure of the future: Generation and transmission pathways through 2050}, | ||
journal = {Applied Energy}, | ||
volume = {260}, | ||
pages = {114267}, | ||
year = {2020}, | ||
issn = {0306-2619}, | ||
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114267}, | ||
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919319543}, | ||
author = {Gopika Jayadev and Benjamin D. Leibowicz and Erhan Kutanoglu}, | ||
keywords = {Energy modeling, Electricity, Generation, Transmission, Optimization, United States}, | ||
abstract = {The future development of the U.S. electricity sector will be shaped by technological, economic, and policy drivers whose trajectories are highly uncertain. In this article, we develop an optimization model for the integrated generation and transmission system in the continental U.S. and use it to explore electricity infrastructure pathways from the present through 2050. By comparing and contrasting results from numerous scenarios and sensitivity settings, we ultimately affirm five key policy-relevant insights. (1) U.S. electricity can be substantially decarbonized at modest cost, but complete decarbonization is very costly. (2) Significant expansion of solar PV and wind to combine for at least 40% of the generation mix by 2050 is fairly certain, although solar PV and battery storage are more affected by economic and policy assumptions than wind. (3) Investments in long-distance transmission are very limited, while investments in battery storage are much greater, under a wide range of assumptions. (4) Optimal solutions include large investments in natural gas capacity, but gas capacity utilization rates decline steadily and significantly. (5) Cost structures shift away from operating expenditures and toward capital expenditures, especially under climate policy. We conclude our article by discussing the policy implications of these findings.} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{calvin2019gcam, | ||
title={GCAM v5. 1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems}, | ||
author={Calvin, Katherine and Patel, Pralit and Clarke, Leon and Asrar, Ghassem and Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Cui, Ryna Yiyun and Di Vittorio, Alan and Dorheim, Kalyn and Edmonds, Jae and Hartin, Corinne and others}, | ||
journal={Geoscientific Model Development (Online)}, | ||
volume={12}, | ||
number={PNNL-SA-137098}, | ||
pages={1--4}, | ||
year={2003}, | ||
doi = {10.1076/iaij.4.1.1.16462}, | ||
publisher={Taylor \& Francis} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@book{marchau2019decision, | ||
title={Decision making under deep uncertainty: from theory to practice}, | ||
author={Marchau, Vincent AWJ and Walker, Warren E and Bloemen, Pieter JTM and Popper, Steven W}, | ||
year={2019}, | ||
publisher={Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.(LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Pacific~…}, | ||
DOI={10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019} | ||
doi = {10.1287/opre.41.3.435}, | ||
publisher={Springer Nature} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{bankes1993exploratory, | ||
title={Exploratory modeling for policy analysis}, | ||
author={Bankes, Steve}, | ||
journal={Operations research}, | ||
volume={41}, | ||
number={3}, | ||
pages={435--449}, | ||
year={1993}, | ||
doi = {10.1287/opre.41.3.435}, | ||
publisher={INFORMS} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@techreport{CWCB-2023, | ||
author = {CWCB}, | ||
title = {The Colorado Water Plan}, | ||
institution = {Colorado Water Conservation Board}, | ||
year = {2023} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{Flavelle2023, | ||
author = {Flavelle, Christoper}, | ||
date = {2023-05-22}, | ||
title = {A Breakthrough Deal to Keep the Colorado River From Going Dry, for Now}, | ||
journal = {The New York Times}, | ||
url = {https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/climate/colorado-river-deal.html}, | ||
urldate = {2023-05-22} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{labadie2006modsim, | ||
title={MODSIM: decision support system for integrated river basin management}, | ||
author={Labadie, John W}, | ||
year={2006} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{draper2004calsim, | ||
title={CalSim: Generalized model for reservoir system analysis}, | ||
author={Draper, Andrew J and Mun{\'e}var, Armin and Arora, Sushil K and Reyes, Erik and Parker, Nancy L and Chung, Francis I and Peterson, Lloyd E}, | ||
journal={Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management}, | ||
volume={130}, | ||
number={6}, | ||
pages={480--489}, | ||
year={2004}, | ||
doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2004)130:6(480}, | ||
publisher={American Society of Civil Engineers} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{zeff2021california, | ||
title={California's food-energy-water system: An open source simulation model of adaptive surface and groundwater management in the Central Valley}, | ||
author={Zeff, Harrison B and Hamilton, Andrew L and Malek, Keyvan and Herman, Jonathan D and Cohen, Jonathan S and Medellin-Azuara, Josue and Reed, Patrick M and Characklis, Gregory W}, | ||
journal={Environmental Modelling \& Software}, | ||
volume={141}, | ||
pages={105052}, | ||
year={2021}, | ||
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105052}, | ||
publisher={Elsevier} | ||
} | ||
|
||
@article{yates2005weap21, | ||
title={WEAP21--A demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model: part 1: model characteristics}, | ||
author={Yates, David and Sieber, Jack and Purkey, David and Huber-Lee, Annette}, | ||
journal={Water international}, | ||
volume={30}, | ||
number={4}, | ||
pages={487--500}, | ||
year={2005}, | ||
doi = {10.1080/02508060508691893}, | ||
publisher={Taylor \& Francis} | ||
} | ||
|
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