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XAI for modelling of covid-19 mortality for the Polish population

Crude mortality rates

The covid-19 related mortality reported by different countries is most often reported in age groups. The following graphs summarize these statisitcs.

Mortality for regions, data from Wikipedia

Can we get better resolution for these predictions?

Below we use XGBoost models and logistic regression with linear tail-restricted cubic splines for more accurate mortality prediction.

Model predictions are visualized using Partial Dependence Profiles. Averages are calcualted in Male/Female groups and With/without cormodibilities.

Mortality for Poland, data from TODO

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