Update default calibration

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,12 @@ All notable changes to this project will be documented in this file.
 The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/),
 and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## [0.2.0] - 2024-08-27 12:00:00
+
+### Added
+
+- Updated default calibration to represent 2024 values of USA parameters and economic conditions.
+
 ## [0.1.12] - 2024-08-26 12:00:00
 
 ### Added
@@ -130,6 +136,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 - Any earlier versions of OG-USA can be found in the [`OG-Core`](https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core) repository [release history](https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/releases) from [v.0.6.4](https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-Core/releases/tag/v0.6.4) (Jul. 20, 2021) or earlier.
 
 
+[0.2.0]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-USA/compare/v0.1.12...v0.2.0
 [0.1.12]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-USA/compare/v0.1.11...v0.1.12
 [0.1.11]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-USA/compare/v0.1.10...v0.1.11
 [0.1.10]: https://github.com/PSLmodels/OG-USA/compare/v0.1.9...v0.1.10

examples/run_og_usa.py

@@ -62,6 +62,10 @@ def main():
         "mtry_params": d["mtry_params"],
         "mean_income_data": d["mean_income_data"],
         "frac_tax_payroll": d["frac_tax_payroll"],
+        "r_gov_shift": [-0.005],
+        "r_gov_scale": [0.0],
+        "zeta_K": [0.5],
+        "zeta_D": [0.5],
     }
     p.update_specifications(updated_params)
     # Run model

ogusa/__init__.py

@@ -11,4 +11,4 @@
 from ogusa.utils import *
 from ogusa.wealth import *
 
-__version__ = "0.1.12"
+__version__ = "0.2.0"

ogusa/macro_params.py

@@ -92,7 +92,6 @@ def get_macro_params():
             - fred_data_q["Total gov transfer payments"]
             - fred_data_q["Gov interest payments"]
             - fred_data_q["Gov investment"]
-            - fred_data_q["Social Security payments"]
         )
         / fred_data_q["Nominal GDP"]
     ).loc[baseline_date]

ogusa/ogusa_default_parameters.json

@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@
         0.995
     ],
     "sigma": 1.5,
-    "gamma": [0.38081351263182506],
+    "gamma": [0.38],
     "epsilon": [1.0],
     "Z": [[1.0]],
     "delta_annual": 0.05,
@@ -44,18 +44,18 @@
     "zeta_K": [0.1],
     "tG1": 20,
     "tG2": 256,
-    "alpha_T": [0.06117398512328073],
-    "alpha_G": [0.011231117159158614],
+    "alpha_T": [0.052],
+    "alpha_G": [0.091],
     "alpha_I": [0.0],
     "rho_G": 0.1,
     "debt_ratio_ss": 2.0,
-    "initial_debt_ratio": 0.9315882600432254,
-    "r_gov_scale": [0.8471534653465324],
-    "r_gov_shift": [0.011677698019801785],
+    "initial_debt_ratio": 0.99,
+    "r_gov_scale": [0.0],
+    "r_gov_shift": [-0.005, -0.007, -0.009, -0.01],
     "cit_rate": [[0.21]],
     "c_corp_share_of_assets": 0.55,
-    "adjustment_factor_for_cit_receipts": [0.30909090909090914],
-    "tau_c": [[0.0]],
+    "adjustment_factor_for_cit_receipts": [0.3090],
+    "tau_c": [[0.01]],
     "delta_tau_annual": [[0.027]],
     "h_wealth": [0.1],
     "m_wealth": [1.0],
@@ -171,9 +171,9 @@
     "analytical_mtrs": false,
     "age_specific": true,
     "retirement_age": [65],
+    "AIME_bkt_1": 1174.0,
+    "AIME_bkt_2": 7078.0,
     "avg_earn_num_years": 35,
-    "AIME_bkt_1": 1115.0,
-    "AIME_bkt_2": 6721.0,
     "PIA_rate_bkt_1": 0.9,
     "PIA_rate_bkt_2": 0.32,
     "PIA_rate_bkt_3": 0.15,
@@ -182,7 +182,7 @@
     "replacement_rate_adjust": [1.0],
     "budget_balance": false,
     "baseline_spending": false,
-    "start_year": 2023,
+    "start_year": 2025,
     "tax_func_type": "DEP",
     "nu": 0.4,
     "maxiter": 250,