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Merge pull request #157 from PSLmodels/phase3-examination-results
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Update Phase3 examination results
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martinholmer authored Jul 21, 2024
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion README.md
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Expand Up @@ -22,5 +22,5 @@ created in each project phase: [phase 1
results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results1.md) and
[phase 2
results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results2.md) and
[PRELIMINARY phase 3
[phase 3
results](./tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md).
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md
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Expand Up @@ -153,7 +153,7 @@ Model-plus-Dataset Estimates for Phase 3
----------------------------------------

In the third phase of this project, the
[Tax-Calculator (3.6.?)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)
[Tax-Calculator (4.2.0)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)
microsimulation model is used to compute tax estimates that correspond
to the federal agency estimates described above. Tax-Calculator is
used with two different sets of 2023 and 2026 input datasets.
Expand Down
43 changes: 21 additions & 22 deletions tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md
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@@ -1,9 +1,7 @@
Phase 3 Data Examination Results
================================

**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-16 (after merge of PR 148)**

**FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED LATER IN JULY 2024**
**FINAL RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-21 (after merge of PR 155)**

This project is developing a new dataset for use by income and payroll
tax microsimulation models. The project is progressing in several
Expand All @@ -20,8 +18,9 @@ in subsequent phases.
For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the
model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination
methods](./methods.md) document. The model used to generate the
following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 4.1.0 version (after
merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-11).
following Phase 3 estimates is [Tax-Calculator
4.2.0]((https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)) (after merge of
PR 2774 on 2024-07-21).

Note that Tax-Calculator assumes 100% participation in credits (like
CTC and EITC), while the federal agencies assume less than 100%
Expand All @@ -35,7 +34,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO |
| 1518.3 | 1761.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 1523.8 | 1767.4 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |

<br>
Expand All @@ -45,7 +44,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO (probably assumes less than 100% credit participation) |
| 2215.0 | 2786.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 2212.0 | 2786.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 2247.9 | 2742.2 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |

<br>
Expand All @@ -56,7 +55,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 122.1 | 57.6 | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 108.6 | 55.7 | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 132.2 | 48.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 129.2 | 46.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 126.3 | 43.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |

<br>
Expand All @@ -67,7 +66,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 71.9 | 78.0 | JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 63.6 | 71.2 | TSY (probably assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 78.6 | 88.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 75.8 | 84.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 73.5 | 82.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset (100% participation) |

<br>
Expand All @@ -78,7 +77,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 45.9 | 56.4 | JCT |
| 31.4 | 38.4 | TSY |
| 52.2 | 70.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 53.3 | 72.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 62.7 | 89.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |

<br>
Expand All @@ -89,7 +88,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| -56.5 | -53.8 | JCT |
| ---- | ---- | TSY |
| -52.9 | -51.2 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| -57.0 | -55.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| -55.8 | -52.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |

<br>
Expand All @@ -100,7 +99,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 259.3 | 239.8 | JCT |
| 153.9 | 182.4 | TSY |
| 221.7 | 221.9 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 234.3 | 232.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 217.7 | 223.6 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |

<br>
Expand All @@ -111,7 +110,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 56.2 | 0.0 | JCT |
| 50.4 | 0.0 | TSY |
| 54.1 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 55.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 19.3 | 0.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |

<br>
Expand All @@ -122,7 +121,7 @@ participation assumptions are discussed below the following tables.
| ---: | ---: | :--- |
| 21.2 | 151.3 | JCT |
| 26.5 | 149.0 | TSY |
| 20.4 | 160.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 20.8 | 162.3 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
| 29.4 | 185.5 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |

<br>
Expand All @@ -147,15 +146,15 @@ provisions, not the potential tax benefits to which taxpayers are
entitled." (Quote is from page 18 of the JCX-59-23 publication.)

The only IRS credit participation rates we have found are for the
EITC, and they are a little bit below 80% and they seem to be tax-unit
participation rates rather than credit amount (or dollar)
participation rates. (See this [IRS
EITC, and they almost 80% and they are tax-unit participation rates
rather than credit amount (or dollar) participation rates. (See this
[IRS
document](https://www.eitc.irs.gov/eitc-central/participation-rate-by-state/eitc-participation-rate-by-states).)

Given the differing credit participation assumptions, it should be
expected that the Tax-Calculator CTC and EITC tax expenditures are
above the JCT estimates. The following calculations, which
arbitrarily assume a 90% dollar participation rate, illustrate how
arbitrarily assume a 95% dollar participation rate, illustrate how
the differing 2023 estimates are not as far apart as they seem.

<br>
Expand All @@ -164,11 +163,11 @@ the differing 2023 estimates are not as far apart as they seem.
| CY23 Amount | Estimate Source |
| ---: | :--- |
| 122.1 | CTC JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 132.2 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 119.0 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (90% participation) |
| 129.2 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 122.7 | CTC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (95% participation) |
| | |
| 71.9 | EITC JCT (assumes less than 100% participation) |
| 78.6 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 70.7 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (90% participation) |
| 75.8 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (100% participation) |
| 72.0 | EITC Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset (95% participation) |

<br>
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@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax
A 201.79 18540.2 2215.0 1518.3 0.0 3733.3
A 202.66 18609.5 2212.0 1523.8 0.0 3735.8

==> tmd-23-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 221.7 0.0 0.0 221.7
A 202.66 18609.5 234.3 0.0 0.0 234.3

==> tmd-23-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A 202.66 18609.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

==> tmd-23-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 132.2 0.0 0.0 132.2
A 202.66 18609.5 129.2 0.0 0.0 129.2

==> tmd-23-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 78.6 0.0 0.0 78.6
A 202.66 18609.5 75.8 0.0 0.0 75.8

==> tmd-23-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 -52.9 0.0 0.0 -52.9
A 202.66 18609.5 -57.0 0.0 0.0 -57.0

==> tmd-23-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 54.1 0.0 0.0 54.1
A 202.66 18609.5 55.3 0.0 0.0 55.3

==> tmd-23-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 20.4 0.0 0.0 20.4
A 202.66 18609.5 20.8 0.0 0.0 20.8

==> tmd-23-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
A 201.79 18540.2 52.2 0.0 0.0 52.2
A 202.66 18609.5 53.3 0.0 0.0 53.3
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
Returns ExpInc IncTax PayTax LSTax AllTax
A 208.38 21107.7 2786.5 1761.0 0.0 4547.4
A 209.28 21187.8 2786.1 1767.4 0.0 4553.5

==> tmd-26-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 221.9 0.0 0.0 221.9
A 209.28 21187.8 232.5 0.0 0.0 232.5

==> tmd-26-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A 209.28 21187.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

==> tmd-26-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 48.6 0.0 0.0 48.6
A 209.28 21187.8 46.8 0.0 0.0 46.8

==> tmd-26-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 88.0 0.0 0.0 88.0
A 209.28 21187.8 84.8 0.0 0.0 84.8

==> tmd-26-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 -51.2 0.0 0.0 -51.2
A 209.28 21187.8 -55.1 0.0 0.0 -55.1

==> tmd-26-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
A 209.28 21187.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

==> tmd-26-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 160.5 0.0 0.0 160.5
A 209.28 21187.8 162.3 0.0 0.0 162.3

==> tmd-26-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
A 208.38 21107.7 70.9 0.0 0.0 70.9
A 209.28 21187.8 72.2 0.0 0.0 72.2

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