Merge pull request #131 from PSLmodels/adjust-scale

Adjust W2_WAGES_SCALE assumption
PSLmodels · Jul 10, 2024 · 6455a62 · 6455a62
2 parents c3cf8b7 + 23ec100
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diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 Phase 3 Data Examination Results
 ================================
 
-**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-07 (after merge of PR 124)**
+**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-07-10 (after merge of PR 131)**
 
 **FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED LATER IN JULY 2024**
 
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the
 model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination
 methods](./methods.md) document.  The model used to generate the
 following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 4.0.0 version (after
-merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
+merge of PR #2772 on 2024-07-10).
 
 <br>
 
@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO    |
-| 1531.4 | 1775.6 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 1523.3 | 1766.8 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO    |
-| 2269.7 | 2894.5 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 2306.4 | 2958.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | 2247.9 | 2742.2 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 122.1  | 57.6   | JCT    |
 | 108.6  | 55.7   | TSY    |
-|  96.4  | 34.4   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+|  96.6  | 34.4   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | 126.3  | 43.1   | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 71.9   | 78.0   | JCT    |
 | 63.6   | 71.2   | TSY    |
-| 77.5   | 86.9   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 77.4   | 86.9   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | 73.5   | 82.0   | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 45.9   |  56.4  | JCT    |
 | 31.4   |  38.4  | TSY    |
-| 53.2   |  71.8  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 53.3   |  71.8  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | 62.7   |  89.5  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | -56.5  | -53.8  | JCT    |
 |  ----  |  ----  | TSY    |
-| -72.1  | -70.7  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| -56.7  | -54.2  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | -55.8  | -52.1  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 259.3  | 239.8  | JCT    |
 | 153.9  | 182.4  | TSY    |
-| 233.1  | 221.8  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 223.2  | 212.0  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | 217.7  | 223.6  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 | 56.2   |  0.0   | JCT    |
 | 50.4   |  0.0   | TSY    |
-| 48.7   |  0.0   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 56.4   |  0.0   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 | 19.3   |  0.0   | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
 
 <br>
@@ -117,5 +117,5 @@ merge of PR 2766 on 2024-07-06).
 | ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
 |  21.2  | 151.3  | JCT    |
 |  26.5  | 149.0  | TSY    |
-|  11.1  | 109.7  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+|  11.4  | 108.9  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
 |  29.4  | 185.5  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect
@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
 Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
- A   201.82   18567.4    2269.7    1531.4       0.0    3801.1
+ A   201.85   18672.5    2306.4    1523.3       0.0    3829.7
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4     233.1       0.0       0.0     233.1
+ A   201.85   18672.5     223.2       0.0       0.0     223.2
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
+ A   201.85   18672.5       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4      96.4       0.0       0.0      96.4
+ A   201.85   18672.5      96.6       0.0       0.0      96.6
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4      77.5       0.0       0.0      77.5
+ A   201.85   18672.5      77.4       0.0       0.0      77.4
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4     -72.1       0.0       0.0     -72.1
+ A   201.85   18672.5     -56.7       0.0       0.0     -56.7
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4      48.7       0.0       0.0      48.7
+ A   201.85   18672.5      56.4       0.0       0.0      56.4
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4      11.1       0.0       0.0      11.1
+ A   201.85   18672.5      11.4       0.0       0.0      11.4
 
 ==> tmd-23-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
- A   201.82   18567.4      53.2       0.0       0.0      53.2
+ A   201.85   18672.5      53.3       0.0       0.0      53.3
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect
@@ -1,27 +1,27 @@
 Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
     Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
- A   208.40   21150.8    2894.5    1775.6       0.0    4670.1
+ A   208.44   21270.0    2958.1    1766.8       0.0    4724.9
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8     221.8       0.0       0.0     221.8
+ A   208.44   21270.0     212.0       0.0       0.0     212.0
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
+ A   208.44   21270.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8      34.4       0.0       0.0      34.4
+ A   208.44   21270.0      34.4       0.0       0.0      34.4
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8      86.9       0.0       0.0      86.9
+ A   208.44   21270.0      86.9       0.0       0.0      86.9
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8     -70.7       0.0       0.0     -70.7
+ A   208.44   21270.0     -54.2       0.0       0.0     -54.2
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
+ A   208.44   21270.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8     109.7       0.0       0.0     109.7
+ A   208.44   21270.0     108.9       0.0       0.0     108.9
 
 ==> tmd-26-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
- A   208.40   21150.8      71.8       0.0       0.0      71.8
+ A   208.44   21270.0      71.8       0.0       0.0      71.8
diff --git a/tax_microdata_benchmarking/imputation_assumptions.py b/tax_microdata_benchmarking/imputation_assumptions.py
@@ -6,4 +6,4 @@
 
 IMPUTATION_BETA_RNG_SEED = 37465  # random number seed used for Beta variates
 
-W2_WAGES_SCALE = 0.20  # parameter used to impute pass-through W-2 wages
+W2_WAGES_SCALE = 0.16  # parameter used to impute pass-through W-2 wages