Set WFA benefit requirement to only true this year and beyond (#951)

* Set WFA to only true this year and beyond * Fix Ensure triple lock matches March OBR forecasts exactly #953
PolicyEngine · Oct 14, 2024 · 7d7eccd · 7d7eccd
1 parent fa7c934
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Showing 12 changed files with 48 additions and 10 deletions.
diff --git a/changelog_entry.yaml b/changelog_entry.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+- bump: minor
+  changes:
+    fixed:
+    - Set the Winter Fuel Allowance to only true in FY24-25.
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/triple_lock.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/state_pension/triple_lock.yaml
@@ -17,12 +17,12 @@ values:
   2018-01-01: 1.290
   2019-01-01: 1.323
   2020-01-01: 1.375
-  2021-01-01: 1.409
-  2022-01-01: 1.453
-  2023-01-01: 1.599
-  2024-01-01: 1.735
-  2025-01-01: 1.800
-  2026-01-01: 1.846
-  2027-01-01: 1.893
-  2028-01-01: 1.941
-  2029-01-01: 1.995
+  2021-01-01: 1.409 # Earnings increase FY2020/2019 = 0.2%, CPI increase FY2020/2019 = 0.6%
+  2022-01-01: 1.495 # Earnings increase FY2021/2020 = 6.0%, CPI increase FY2021/2020 = 3.9%
+  2023-01-01: 1.645 # Earnings increase FY2022/2021 = 5.7%, CPI increase FY2022/2021 = 10.1%
+  2024-01-01: 1.751 # Earnings increase FY2023/2022 = 6.5%, CPI increase FY2023/2022 = 5.7%
+  2025-01-01: 1.805 # Earnings increase FY2024/2023 = 3.1%, CPI increase FY2024/2023 = 1.6%
+  2026-01-01: 1.850 # Earnings increase FY2025/2024 = 1.9%, CPI increase FY2025/2024 = 1.6%
+  2027-01-01: 1.896 # Earnings increase FY2026/2025 = 2.2%, CPI increase FY2026/2025 = 1.7%
+  2028-01-01: 1.944 # Earnings increase FY2027/2026 = 2.3%, CPI increase FY2027/2026 = 2.0%
+
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/require_benefits.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/winter_fuel_payment/eligibility/require_benefits.yaml
@@ -1,6 +1,12 @@
 description: Whether receipt of means-tested benefits is required to qualify for the Winter Fuel Payment.
 values:
-  2000-01-01: true
+  2000-01-01: false
+  2024-01-01: 
+    value: true
+    metadata:
+      reference:
+      - title: The Social Fund Winter Fuel Payment Regulations 2024 regulation 2
+        href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2024/869/regulation/2
 metadata:
   unit: bool
   label: Winter Fuel Payment means-tested benefits requirement

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/average_earnings.yaml
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 160.9
   2027-01-01: 164.6
   2028-01-01: 168.9
+  2029-01-01: 173.3 # Projected
 metadata:
   unit: /1
   reference:

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/consumer_price_index.yaml
@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 138.2
   2027-01-01: 140.9
   2028-01-01: 143.7
+  2029-01-01: 146.6 # Projected
 metadata:
   unit: /1
   reference:

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/house_prices.yaml
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 148.6
   2027-01-01: 153.8
   2028-01-01: 159.5
+  2029-01-01: 165.7 # Projected
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   reference:

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/food_beverages_and_tobacco.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/food_beverages_and_tobacco.yaml
@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 1.387
   2027-01-01: 1.426
   2028-01-01: 1.461
+  2029-01-01: 1.497 # Projected
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   reference: OBR

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/utilities.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/inflation/utilities.yaml
@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 1.281
   2027-01-01: 1.313
   2028-01-01: 1.365
+  2029-01-01: 1.418 # Projected
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   reference: OBR

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mixed_income.yaml
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 193.5
   2027-01-01: 202.3
   2028-01-01: 211.8
+  2029-01-01: 221.9 # Projected
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/mortgage_interest.yaml
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 113.2
   2027-01-01: 119.7
   2028-01-01: 125.2
+  2029-01-01: 130.7 # Projected
 metadata:
   unit: currency-GBP
   reference:

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/obr/non_labour_income.yaml
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ values:
   2026-01-01: 504.4
   2027-01-01: 543.6
   2028-01-01: 585.3
+  2029-01-01: 629.3 # Projected
 metadata:
   reference:
     - title: OBR March 2024 EFO

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py b/policyengine_uk/utils/create_triple_lock.py
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+from policyengine_uk.system import system
+
+# Run this script to generate the triple lock parameter for updated CPI and average earnings forecasts from the OBR.
+
+cpi = system.parameters.gov.obr.consumer_price_index
+average_earnings = system.parameters.gov.obr.average_earnings
+
+START_YEAR = 2021
+
+triple_lock = system.parameters.gov.dwp.state_pension.triple_lock
+lock_value = triple_lock(START_YEAR - 1)
+
+for year in range(START_YEAR, 2029):
+    earnings_increase = average_earnings(year - 1) / average_earnings(year - 2)
+    cpi_increase = cpi(year - 1) / cpi(year - 2)
+    triple_lock_increase = max(earnings_increase, cpi_increase, 1.025)
+    lock_value *= triple_lock_increase
+    print(
+        f"  {year}-01-01: {lock_value:.3f} # Earnings increase FY{year - 1}/{year - 2} = {earnings_increase-1:.1%}, CPI increase FY{year - 1}/{year - 2} = {cpi_increase-1:.1%}"
+    )