Submission Format

For each weekly forecast and for each participating model, a file must be sent to the repository (via a pull request operation). As previously anticipated, the forecast files will have a path within the repository in the form:

previsioni/Team_X-Model_Y/2024_05.csv

The forecast files must be CSV (comma-separated values) files with the following columns:

• anno
• settimana
• luogo
• tipo_valore
• id_valore
• orizzonte
• valore
• target

anno, settimana: the year and the week to which the forecast refers, indicated as integers. These must correspond to the year and the week of the surveillance report. They must also be the same ones used in the file name (minus the initial 0 for the first 9 weeks of the year). For ease of reference, the file supporting-files/forecasting_weeks.csv contains, for various forecasting rounds, the values of anno, settimana, and the dates corresponding to different forecasting horizons. Additionally, the previsioni/settimane_<season>.csv file lists all possible weeks for the season, indicating for each week: year, week number, start date, and end date.

luogo: a two-character code (a string) indicating the location to which the forecast refers. The allowed values are: IT, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21. The IT code indicates the national level forecast, while the codes from 01 to 21 refer to the regions according to the following mapping:

• 01 : Abruzzo
• 02 : Basilicata
• 03 : Calabria
• 04 : Campania
• 05 : Emilia Romagna
• 06 : Friuli Venezia Giulia
• 07 : Lazio
• 08 : Liguria
• 09 : Lombardia
• 10 : Marche
• 11 : Molise
• 12 : Autonomous Province of Bolzano
• 13 : Autonomous Province of Trento
• 14 : Piemonte
• 15 : Puglia
• 16 : Sardegna
• 17 : Sicilia
• 18 : Toscana
• 19 : Umbria
• 20 : Valle d'Aosta
• 21 : Veneto

To facilitate reference, the file supporting-files/region_codes.csv contains the correspondence between regions and their codes.

tipo_valore: this field must always contain the string 'quantile'. (The field is redundant since all forecasts will currently be provided in the form of quantiles, but it is present to ensure compatibility with similar infrastructures at the European level).

id_valore: the quantile for which the forecast values are indicated in the valore column, in the form of a decimal number between 0 and 1. For each forecast, it is mandatory to indicate the values for the following quantiles: 0.01, 0.025, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3, 0.35, 0.4, 0.45, 0.5, 0.55, 0.6, 0.65, 0.7, 0.75, 0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 0.95, 0.975, 0.99. For example, the 0.025 and 0.975 order quantiles for a given week and location must represent 95% of the estimated values, corresponding to a 95% confidence interval.

orizzonte: an integer indicating the target week of the forecast, starting from the reference week corresponding to the surveillance report. Permitted values are -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4. Values -1 and 0 correspond to nowcasting for the last and the second-to-last week. Values 1, 2, 3, and 4 indicate forecasts for one, two, three, or four weeks ahead, respectively.

valore: a decimal number indicating the forecast, that is, the estimated weekly incidence value (weekly cases per 1000 patients) at the end of the week (on Sunday) indicated in the orizzonte column, for the quantile and the location indicated in the id_valore and luogo columns.

target: a string indicating the target to which the prediction refers. It can take the values ILI, ILI+_FLU_A, and ILI+_FLU_B. Predictions for different targets must be included in the same file.

Example

The following shows a few lines from an example CSV file complying with the required format:

anno,settimana,luogo,tipo_valore,id_valore,orizzonte,valore,target
2023,45,IT,quantile,0.975,1,0.982,ILI
2023,45,IT,quantile,0.975,2,0.995,ILI
2023,45,IT,quantile,0.975,3,1.084,ILI
2023,45,IT,quantile,0.975,4,1.174,ILI
2023,45,IT,quantile,0.5,1,0.934,ILI+_FLU_A
2023,45,IT,quantile,0.5,2,0.956,ILI+_FLU_A