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Merge branch 'master' of github.com:carlobortolan/icm25
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carlobortolan committed Aug 10, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -17,6 +17,11 @@ Data set ([Case1.csv](./data/Case1.csv)) includes 16 stock market indices in loc
- Monthly stock market data starting on December 31, 1992, and ending on February 28, 2018
- Indexed to ”100” at the beginning of the period

![case1a](https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/f3b92af7-c614-4e5e-aac3-c33dab097881)
![case1b](https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/3a270736-9a91-484e-9783-c483aaa93653)
![case1c](https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/42c354cf-3a83-45d9-a133-47616eec2c3d)


## Case 2: Rational asset pricing and multifactor models

Data set ([Case2Factors.csv](./data/Case2Factors.csv) and [Case2MSCI.csv](./data/Case2MSCI.csv)) include monthly total return index data over the 1st decade of the 21st century, from January 2000 to December 2009, denominated in EUR for 10 European stock markets and 4 global risk factors.
Expand All @@ -25,6 +30,34 @@ Data set ([Case2Factors.csv](./data/Case2Factors.csv) and [Case2MSCI.csv](./data
- **Market return on the MSCI World index return** (_single factor model_)
- **Market return on the 4 global factors** (_4-factor model_)

```
================================ Switzerland =================================
OLS Regression Results
==============================================================================
Dep. Variable: Switzerland R-squared: 0.674
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.662
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 59.37
Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 4.25e-27
Time: 23:18:03 Log-Likelihood: 280.69
No. Observations: 120 AIC: -551.4
Df Residuals: 115 BIC: -537.4
Df Model: 4
Covariance Type: nonrobust
================================================================================
coef std err t P>|t| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 0.0035 0.002 1.565 0.120 -0.001 0.008
FX USD/EUR 0.2081 0.075 2.759 0.007 0.059 0.358
EUR 10Y Rate 0.0626 0.052 1.206 0.230 -0.040 0.165
CRB Index -0.1146 0.048 -2.383 0.019 -0.210 -0.019
MSCI World 0.7431 0.053 14.017 0.000 0.638 0.848
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 4.731 Durbin-Watson: 1.689
Prob(Omnibus): 0.094 Jarque-Bera (JB): 4.503
...
==============================================================================
```

---

© Carlo Bortolan
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