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I use a LSTM ( long short term memory model) model to predict the fluctuations of VIX index ( the index of 50ETF options), and trade the index of 50ETF accordingly.

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50ETF指数择时策略

根据深度学习LSTM模型对50ETF期权的VIX指数涨跌的预测结果进行对50ETF指数的择时交易。中国股市的涨跌与 期权VIX呈正相关,因此本策略即在看涨VIX时买进50ETF指数,看跌时卖出50ETF指数。


>>首先,本文使用多层LSTM模型对VIX指数的预测结果如下:

image

其次,本策略的净值曲线如下: image 策略年化收益率仅有5.43%, 夏普比率0.35。这说明策略仍有改进空间:下一步我计划采用与50ETF相关性更强的AVIX指数(Zheng,Jiang and Chen,2017)作为市场的情绪指标(而非本策略使用的VIX指标);另外就模型本身而言,我计划进一步改进LSTM模型以更好的寻找AVIX与股指之间存在的关系。

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I use a LSTM ( long short term memory model) model to predict the fluctuations of VIX index ( the index of 50ETF options), and trade the index of 50ETF accordingly.

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