Merge pull request #69 from martinholmer/tmd-examination

Add very preliminary Phase3 data examination results

.gitignore

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 **/*.h5
 **/*.pyc
+**/*.csv.zip
 **/*.csv.gz
 !tax_microdata_benchmarking/tmd_weights.csv.gz
 **/*.egg-info

tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/methods.md

@@ -147,3 +147,62 @@ The 2026 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the
 `taxdata dataset` and in the
 `examination/taxcalculator/xb26-26.res-expect` file for the
 `phase 2 dataset`.
+
+
+Model-plus-Dataset Estimates for Phase 3
+----------------------------------------
+
+In the third phase of this project, the
+[Tax-Calculator (3.6.?)](https://github.com/PSLmodels/Tax-Calculator)
+microsimulation model is used to compute tax estimates that correspond
+to the federal agency estimates described above.  Tax-Calculator is
+used with two different sets of 2023 and 2026 input datasets.
+
+The first, which is called the `taxdata dataset`, is the CSV-formatted
+dataset created for Tax-Calculator in the [taxdata
+repository](https://github.com/PSLmodels/taxdata).  It contains 2011
+TSY SOI PUF data, supplemented with CPS data, that is extrapolated to
+calendar year 2023 and to calendar year 2026.
+
+The second, which is called the `phase 3 dataset`, is a CSV-formatted
+dataset developed by this project.  It contains 2015 TSY SOI PUF data
+enhanced with 2022 CPS data backcasted to 2015.  The resulting 2015
+dataset is then extrapolated to 2021 and reweighted so that the 2021
+dataset generates aggregate and AGI-group statistics similar to those
+published by TSY SOI for that year.
+
+In both these input dataset cases, the same procedure is used to
+estimate the amounts corresponding to the federal agency estimates.
+This procedure involves using the Tax-Calculator's
+command-line-interface tool,
+[`tc`](https://taxcalc.pslmodels.org/guide/cli.html), in the
+`examination/taxcalculator` directory.  The payroll and individual
+income tax liabilities are estimated using the
+[`clp.json`](./taxcalculator/clp.json) null reform to produce
+estimates for 2023 or 2026 baseline tax policy.  Each tax expenditure
+estimate is generated using a simple reform that negates that feature
+of baseline tax policy.  The several `tc` runs are collected into a
+single shell script called `examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh`, which
+in turn calls the `examination/taxcalculator/execute.sh` script for
+each run.  The simple tax expenditure reforms are included in the
+following JSON files:
+
+* **CTC Tax Expenditure**: [`ctc.json`](./taxcalculator/ctc.json)
+* **EITC Tax Expenditure**: [`eitc.json`](./taxcalculator/eitc.json)
+* **SSBEN Tax Expenditure**: [`ssben.json`](./taxcalculator/ssben.json)
+* **NIIT Tax Expenditure**: [`niit.json`](./taxcalculator/niit.json)
+* **CGQD Tax Expenditure**: [`cgqd.json`](./taxcalculator/cgqd.json)
+* **QBID Tax Expenditure**: [`qbid.json`](./taxcalculator/qbid.json)
+* **SALT Tax Expenditure**: [`salt.json`](./taxcalculator/salt.json)
+
+The 2023 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the
+`examination/taxcalculator/puf-23.res-expect` file for the
+`taxdata dataset` and in the
+`examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect` file for the
+`phase 3 dataset`.
+
+The 2026 results from these two sets of `tc` runs are in the
+`examination/taxcalculator/puf-26.res-expect` file for the
+`taxdata dataset` and in the
+`examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect` file for the
+`phase 3 dataset`.

tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/results3.md

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+Phase 3 Data Examination Results
+================================
+
+**PRELIMINARY RESULTS AS OF 2024-05-03**
+
+**FINAL RESULTS EXPECTED IN JULY 2024**
+
+This project is developing a new dataset for use by income and payroll
+tax microsimulation models.  The project is progressing in several
+phases.  At the end of each phase the current dataset is used as input
+to a tax microsimulation model to generate several basic tax
+estimates for calendar years 2023 and 2026.  These estimates are
+then compared with corresponding estimates generated by federal
+agencies using their more comprehensive data.  Examining the
+differences between the estimates generated from this project's data
+and the estimates published by the federal agencies should provide
+ideas about how to improve the development of this project's dataset
+in subsequent phases.
+
+For more on the source of the federal agency estimates and on how the
+model-plus-dataset estimates are generated, see the [examination
+methods](./methods.md) document.  The model used to generate the
+following Phase 3 estimates is Tax-Calculator 3.6.? version.
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 Payroll Tax Liability** ($ billion)<br>
+(federal employee plus employer share)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| 1580.0 | 1829.9 | CBO    |
+| 1618.3 | 1875.7 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 1489.3 | 1711.0 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 Individual Income Tax Liability** ($ billion)<br>
+(federal individual income tax)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| 2512.3 | 2849.4 | CBO    |
+| 2316.7 | 2935.1 | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 2247.8 | 2742.1 | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 CTC Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)<br>
+(from the federal child tax credit)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| 122.1  | 57.6   | JCT    |
+| 108.6  | 55.7   | TSY    |
+| 124.6  | 44.7   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 126.2  | 43.1   | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 EITC Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)<br>
+(from the federal earned income credit)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| 71.9   | 78.0   | JCT    |
+| 63.6   | 71.2   | TSY    |
+| 70.0   | 78.7   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 73.5   | 82.0   | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 SSBEN Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)<br>
+(from excluding some social security benefits from federal AGI)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| 45.9   |  56.4  | JCT    |
+| 31.4   |  38.4  | TSY    |
+| 81.9   | 109.8  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 62.7   |  89.5  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 NIIT Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)<br>
+(from the 3.8% federal surtax on investment income)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| -56.5  | -53.8  | JCT    |
+|  ----  |  ----  | TSY    |
+| -67.9  | -66.2  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| -55.8  | -52.1  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 CGQD Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)<br>
+(from taxing long-term capital gains and qualified dividends at lower federal rates)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| 259.3  | 239.8  | JCT    |
+| 153.9  | 182.4  | TSY    |
+| 271.9  | 271.1  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 217.7  | 223.6  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 QBID Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)<br>
+(from the 20% federal qualified business income deduction)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+| 56.2   |  0.0   | JCT    |
+| 50.4   |  0.0   | TSY    |
+| 63.2   |  0.0   | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+| 19.3   |  0.0   | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2023 and CY2026 SALT Tax Expenditure** ($ billion)<br>
+(from itemized deduction of state and local income/sales/property taxes)
+| CY23 Amount | CY26 Amount | Estimate Source |
+| ---:   | ---:   | :---   |
+|  21.2  | 151.3  | JCT    |
+|  26.5  | 149.0  | TSY    |
+|  15.8  | 195.6  | Tax-Calculator + phase 3 dataset |
+|  29.4  | 185.5  | Tax-Calculator + taxdata dataset |

tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/runs.sh

@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@
 # Execute several Tax-Calculator runs using the execute.sh script.
 # USAGE:
 #   ./runs.sh  DATAFILE(without_trailing_.csv) YEAR(tailing_two_digits)
-#   DATAFILES: puf|pe23|xb23|xb26|xc23|xc26
+#   DATAFILES: puf|pe23|xb23|xb26|tmd
 #              (where puf is from the taxdata repository)
 #              (where pe23 is the Phase 1 work product)
 #              (where xb23 and xb26 are Phase 2 work products)
-#              (where xc23 and xc26 are Phase 3 work products)
+#              (where tmd is from a Phase 3 work product)
 
 D="DATAFILE(without_trailing_.csv)"
 Y="YEAR(tailing_two_digits)"
@@ -46,26 +46,12 @@ if [[ "$1" == "xb26" ]]; then
     fi
     OK=1
 fi
-if [[ "$1" == "xc23" ]]; then
-    unzip -oq xc23.csv.zip
-    if [[ "$2" != "23" ]]; then
-        echo "ERROR: YEAR not equal to 23" >&2
-        echo "USAGE: ./runs.sh xc23 23" >&2
-        exit 1
-    fi
-    OK=1
-fi
-if [[ "$1" == "xc26" ]]; then
-    unzip -oq xc26.csv.zip
-    if [[ "$2" != "26" ]]; then
-        echo "ERROR: YEAR not equal to 26" >&2
-        echo "USAGE: ./runs.sh xc26 26" >&2
-        exit 1
-    fi
+if [[ "$1" == "tmd" ]]; then
+    unzip -oq tmd.csv.zip
     OK=1
 fi
 if [[ "$OK" -ne 1 ]]; then
-    echo "ERROR: DATAFILE is neither 'puf' nor 'pe23'" >&2
+    echo "ERROR: illegal DATAFILE" >&2
     echo "USAGE: ./runs.sh $D $Y" >&2
     exit 1
 fi

tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-23.res-expect

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
+    Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
+ A   222.52   20244.4    2316.7    1618.3       0.0    3935.0
+
+==> tmd-23-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4     271.9       0.0       0.0     271.9
+
+==> tmd-23-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
+
+==> tmd-23-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4     124.6       0.0       0.0     124.6
+
+==> tmd-23-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4      70.0       0.0       0.0      70.0
+
+==> tmd-23-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4     -67.9       0.0       0.0     -67.9
+
+==> tmd-23-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4      63.2       0.0       0.0      63.2
+
+==> tmd-23-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4      15.8       0.0       0.0      15.8
+
+==> tmd-23-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
+ A   222.52   20244.4      81.9       0.0       0.0      81.9

tax_microdata_benchmarking/examination/taxcalculator/tmd-26.res-expect

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+Weighted Tax Reform Totals by Baseline Expanded-Income Decile
+    Returns    ExpInc    IncTax    PayTax     LSTax    AllTax
+ A   229.78   23031.6    2935.1    1875.7       0.0    4810.8
+
+==> tmd-26-#-cgqd-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6     271.1       0.0       0.0     271.1
+
+==> tmd-26-#-clp-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
+
+==> tmd-26-#-ctc-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6      44.7       0.0       0.0      44.7
+
+==> tmd-26-#-eitc-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6      78.7       0.0       0.0      78.7
+
+==> tmd-26-#-niit-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6     -66.2       0.0       0.0     -66.2
+
+==> tmd-26-#-qbid-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
+
+==> tmd-26-#-salt-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6     195.6       0.0       0.0     195.6
+
+==> tmd-26-#-ssben-#-tab.text <==
+ A   229.78   23031.6     109.8       0.0       0.0     109.8