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ELEX-3031: Potential Voterflow Solvers #17

Merged
merged 136 commits into from
Mar 29, 2024
Merged

ELEX-3031: Potential Voterflow Solvers #17

merged 136 commits into from
Mar 29, 2024

Commits on Oct 6, 2023

  1. Adding TransitionSolver abstract base class

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  2. Running pre-commit on TransitionSolver and removing unused warnings i… 

    …mport
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 6, 2023
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  3. Modifying TransitionMatrixSolver according to some experiments I've r… 

    …un and also to inherit from TransitionSolver
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 6, 2023
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  4. Adding placeholder for prediction intervals method

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 6, 2023
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  5. Initial check-in of EI-based transition solver

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 6, 2023
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Commits on Oct 9, 2023

  1. Adding some required-matching-length exceptions to EITransitionSolver

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 9, 2023
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  2. Rescale if needed, check for things x units

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 9, 2023
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Commits on Oct 10, 2023

  1. Adding _check_and_rescale() to superclass so the same check can be pe… 

    …rformed before the cvxpy solver
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 10, 2023
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  2. Cleaning up code and exception-handling with pre-commit

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 10, 2023
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  3. Adding MAE computation/reporting to ETTransitionSolver

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 10, 2023
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Commits on Oct 12, 2023

  1. Adding the ability to compute a prediction (credible) interval with t… 

    …he EI solver and also experimenting with different sampler options there
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 12, 2023
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  2. Handle zero and other weird division correctly when rescaling the per… 

    …centages to sum to 1 at the unit-level
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 12, 2023
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Commits on Oct 16, 2023

  1. Adding a check to make sure we have enough units

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 16, 2023
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Commits on Oct 17, 2023

  1. Silencing some warnings

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 17, 2023
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  2. Increasing the target_accept on the sampler and making sure the sampl… 

    …ing_chains argument is an int
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 17, 2023
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Commits on Oct 18, 2023

  1. Trying out some more EI solver optimizations

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  2. Explicitly specifying the cvxpy solver to use since the default is ab… 

    …out to change (also squashes warning)
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 18, 2023
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  3. Fixing poorly-worded comment in transition matrix solver

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 18, 2023
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  4. Default sampling chains of 2 on 2 cores

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 18, 2023
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Commits on Oct 20, 2023

  1. Merge branch 'develop' of github.com:washingtonpost/elex-solver into … 

    …ELEX-3031-voterflow-models
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 20, 2023
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  2. Making sure pymc is a requirement

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 20, 2023
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Commits on Oct 23, 2023

  1. Experimenting with drawing fewer samples, different Dirichlet alphas

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 23, 2023
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  2. Semi-relaxing the check for units summing to 1 using np.allclose()

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 23, 2023
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  3. Adding numpyro to the requirements

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 23, 2023
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  4. Test against Python 3.11 because I don't think some of the requiremen… 

    …ts are available for 3.10
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 23, 2023
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  5. Increasing github test timeout to 10 minutes

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 23, 2023
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  6. Trying a slightly-older version of numpy to be compatible with the cu… 

    …rrent version of pytensor
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 23, 2023
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  7. Switching to HalfNormal prior instead of Gamma after preliminary eval… 

    …uation
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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 23, 2023
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Commits on Oct 24, 2023

  1. Addressing some pylint complaints

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 24, 2023
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  2. Starting on TransitionSolver unit tests

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 24, 2023
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  3. Splitting TransitionSolver._check_and_rescale() into two separate met… 

    …hods
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Oct 24, 2023
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  4. Finishing TransitionSolver unit tests

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 24, 2023
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  5. Make sure X and Y are numpy arrays for cvxpy if they're not already

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 24, 2023
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  6. Adding unit tests for the transition matrix solver

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 24, 2023
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  7. Adding test for rescaling the matrix if it's a pandas.DataFrame

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 24, 2023
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Commits on Oct 25, 2023

  1. Pass in matrixes of vote counts (integers) so I can ensure the percen… 

    …tage transitions are being computed correctly 😞
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Oct 25, 2023
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  2. Getting unit tests working again after all those changes

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 25, 2023
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  3. Add check for integer data

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    dmnapolitano committed Oct 25, 2023
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Commits on Nov 2, 2023

  1. Silencing perfectly-ok warning about division-by-zero in rescale meth… 

    …od in TransitionSolver
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Commits on Nov 20, 2023

  1. Adding check and exception for units that are completely zero

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  2. Need to push the changes I made to the matrix solver so the tests pas… 

    …s remotely lol
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    dmnapolitano committed Nov 20, 2023
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  3. Adding the check for zero units and adding some consistency to checks… 

    … in the EI solver
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    dmnapolitano committed Nov 20, 2023
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  4. Silencing some extraneous/unnecessary pymc and jax logging messages

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    dmnapolitano committed Nov 20, 2023
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Commits on Dec 1, 2023

  1. Independent function for MAE calculation and MAE as a class member/pr… 

    …operty
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Commits on Dec 2, 2023

  1. Handle situation where numpy arrays passed in to MAE function are act… 

    …ually lists and not numpy arrays
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  2. Updating the MAE unit test since it's no longer a class method

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Commits on Dec 6, 2023

  1. Fixing issue where integer division was being performed when rescalin… 

    …g so actual numbers weren't being used to get like any actual voterflows
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  2. Fixing the matrix solver fit_predict() unit test now that I fixed suc… 

    …h a huge mistake
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  3. Ensuring that the tests for rescale() test using integers with dtype int

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  4. Using the Clarabel solver instead of ECOS after all since it seems mo… 

    …re robust; setting transition_matrix pos=True helps prevent negative results
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Commits on Dec 8, 2023

  1. SUPER preliminary version of a bootstrap matrix solver

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  2. Now generating random residuals for each unit/candidate rather than j… 

    …ust distributing them uniformly across all units/candidates
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  3. Hmmmmmm...

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 8, 2023
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  4. Shuffling the random per unit/candidate residuals, which does nothing… 

    … lol
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  5. Adding option for weights to matrix solver

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 8, 2023
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  6. Switching the EI solver over to (units x candidates) to match the mat… 

    …rix solver and remove confusion
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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 8, 2023
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Commits on Dec 11, 2023

  1. Finish up the conversion of the EI solver from (things x units) to (u… 

    …nits x things)
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  2. Removing some redundancy in the EI solver

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 11, 2023
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  3. Fixing mistake in preparing the weights

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 11, 2023
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  4. Finished EI solver with weights (I think)

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 11, 2023
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  5. Switching to 'classic' bootstrap matrix solver which seems to produce… 

    … more interesting results...
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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 11, 2023
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  6. Fix typing with weights in bootstrap matrix solver

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Commits on Dec 12, 2023

  1. Improving some of the logging generated by the matrix solvers

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 12, 2023
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  2. Trying out some error handling

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 12, 2023
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  3. Use the weights in the bootstrap to draw a weighted sample

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 12, 2023
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Commits on Dec 13, 2023

  1. Speeding up the bootstrap matrix solver a bit

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Commits on Dec 14, 2023

  1. Removing weighting from EI solver for now since it's SUPER slow and p… 

    …robably not implemented right; also making the prediction/credible interval distinction clear
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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 14, 2023
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Commits on Dec 15, 2023

  1. Correcting comment prediction => credible

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  2. Adding method for confidence interval to bootstrap solver

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  3. Adding unit tests for the weights standardization/checking

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  4. Adding option to hide the progress bar during bootstrapping

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 15, 2023
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  5. Removing extraneous parentheses from bootstrap solver

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  6. Don't fail the one unit test requiring pandas if the user doesn't hav… 

    …e pandas
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  7. Adding unit tests for the bootstrap solver

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Commits on Dec 18, 2023

  1. Changing constraint to constraints

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Commits on Dec 19, 2023

  1. Adding L2 regularization option to matrix solver

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 19, 2023
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  2. Adding lambda argument to bootstrap solver to enable bootstrap ridge

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 19, 2023
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Commits on Dec 20, 2023

  1. Clarifying predicted percentages vs. transitions

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Commits on Dec 26, 2023

  1. Adding function for WAPE

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 26, 2023
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  2. Converting the model-fit score to WAPE, too

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Commits on Dec 27, 2023

  1. Handle situation in calculating WAPE when the expected Y is 0

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    dmnapolitano committed Dec 27, 2023
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  2. Letting WAPE remain undefined when Y_expected is zero

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  3. Switching back to MAE because WAPE is undefined when Y expected is zero

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Commits on Dec 28, 2023

  1. Adding option to compute MAE with sample weights

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  2. And apparently fixing a mistake I had made in the MAE formula...

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Commits on Jan 15, 2024

  1. Moving MAE computation out of elex-solver

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Commits on Jan 17, 2024

  1. Finishing up unit tests for TransitionSolver abstract base class

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  2. Adding type hints to TransitionMatrixSolver

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Commits on Jan 22, 2024

  1. Missed a few type hints in TransitionMatrixSolver constructor

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 22, 2024
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  2. Adding type hints to EITransitionSolver

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 22, 2024
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  3. Adding unit test for strict constraints with matrix solver and global… 

    … RTOL and ATOL constants for all matrix solver unit tests
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  4. Adding unit test for matrix solver with L2 regularization

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  5. Adding a matrix solver unit test where the matrix needs to be pivoted… 

    … first and clarifying the use of lambda and L2 regularization
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  6. Removing redundant/error-prone 'taking the mean' to get bootstrapped … 

    …transitions
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  7. Two more unit tests on the bootstrap confidence interval

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Commits on Jan 23, 2024

  1. Starting work on EI solver unit tests

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  2. Adding two more EI solver unit tests

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 23, 2024
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  3. Updating some requirement version numbers

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 23, 2024
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  4. Increasing the test timeout on github

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 23, 2024
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  5. Maybe the numpyro NUTS sampler is the problem?

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 23, 2024
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  6. Please let me have fixed these unit tests

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 23, 2024
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Commits on Jan 30, 2024

  1. Trying to fix my failing pymc-related unit tests by adding a pytensor… 

    …-compilation environment variable
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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  2. Hopefully fixing bad whitespacing in .github/workflows/test.yml ?

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  3. Reverting the commit where I try adding an environment variable to th… 

    …e github tests
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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  4. Maybe setting a numpy random seed will help

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  5. Reducing the number of samples drawn; want to see if the tests fail t… 

    …he same way here and on Ubuntu
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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  6. Starting to see same results on macOS/M1 and Ubuntu/x86-64...

    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  7. Adding a test for credible interval, increasing the number of samples… 

    …, decreasing the tolerance
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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  8. Adding unit tests for other values that could be specified to credibl… 

    …e interval and also getting credible interval transitions
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  9. More matrix solver unit tests, particularly involving pandas

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  10. 100% code coverage in transition solver base class 🎉

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  11. One last EI solver unit test 🎉

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  12. Adding some method docstrings and return types to the transition solv… 

    …er base class
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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  13. Writing one single docstring for fit_predict() in the base class

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  14. Matrix and bootstrap solvers docstrings, return types, and modifying … 

    …the confidence interval method to return transitions
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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  15. Adding unit test for bootstrap matrix confidence interval transitions

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 30, 2024
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Commits on Jan 31, 2024

  1. Adding docstrings to EI transition solver and cleaning up a few others

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 31, 2024
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  2. Making EI solver's get_transitions() method super private

    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Jan 31, 2024
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  3. Adding text to the README:

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 31, 2024
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  4. Capitalizing the 'm' in the section header

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 31, 2024
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  5. Removing the bootstrap matrix solver from this branch in favor of it … 

    …living in the ELEX-3830 branch
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Jan 31, 2024
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  6. Forgot to remove bootstrap mentions from the README

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    dmnapolitano committed Jan 31, 2024
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Commits on Feb 1, 2024

  1. Moving the EI solver to elex-voterflow-model as the EI model

    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Feb 1, 2024
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  2. Asking pylint to ignore missing-module-docstring

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    dmnapolitano committed Feb 1, 2024
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Commits on Feb 6, 2024

  1. When the Clarabel solver fails or throws a warning, chain that to a R… 

    …untimeError and raise the exception
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Feb 6, 2024
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Commits on Mar 18, 2024

  1. Removing get_prediction_interval() method since it hasn't been implem… 

    …ented anywhere yet
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Mar 18, 2024
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  2. Moving rules about matrix dimensions that are specific to voterflow o… 

    …ver to elex-voterflow-model
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    dmnapolitano committed Mar 18, 2024
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Commits on Mar 19, 2024

  1. Splitting fit_predict() into two methods, renaming 'percentages' to '… 

    …self._betas', renaming 'weights' to 'sample_weight' to be consistent with sklearn
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Mar 19, 2024
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  2. Specifying return type for TransitionSolver.predict()

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    dmnapolitano committed Mar 19, 2024
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  3. A version of TransitionSolver that inherets from LinearSolver

    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Mar 19, 2024
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  4. Forgot to run pre-commit

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    dmnapolitano committed Mar 19, 2024
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Commits on Mar 20, 2024

  1. Removing math to convert the coefficients to 'transitions' from Trans… 

    …itionSolver/TransitionMatrixSolver
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Mar 20, 2024
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Commits on Mar 22, 2024

  1. Cleaning up some docstring formatting and removing unnecessary property

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    dmnapolitano committed Mar 22, 2024
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Commits on Mar 27, 2024

  1. BROKEN testing the requirement of integer data and the forced-rescali… 

    …ng here
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    dmnapolitano committed Mar 27, 2024
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Commits on Mar 28, 2024

  1. FIXED updated unit tests; integer data is no longer a requirement for… 

    … transition solvers 🎉
    @dmnapolitano
    dmnapolitano committed Mar 28, 2024
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  2. Adding more information to why self._check_for_zero_units() is important

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    dmnapolitano committed Mar 28, 2024
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